Republicans are encouraging their voters to vote in-person on Election Day— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 8, 2022
Control of the US Senate could come down to a Western storm bringing rain and snow to Nevada on Tuesday pic.twitter.com/eCYk7egvhJ
To be clear, I'm not saying that weather conditions out West (we're bracing ourselves for flash floods an mudslides here in California) will have a noticeable effect on turnout. If it does, we don't know if it will disproportionately affect one party. That's the point of this whole thread: we don't know.
To make matters worse, in some cases, we may be talking about real bombs.
Arizona drop boxes: The DOJ Is Already Investigating Reports of Midterm Voter Intimidation https://t.co/bL7PGQkpVu— Frank Figliuzzi (@FrankFigliuzzi1) October 22, 2022
Went to vote early in East Harlem and the place was closed - bomb scare. Of note: This is a very Black and brown neighborhood.— Luciana Lopez (@Luciana_F_Lopez) November 6, 2022
Between these unpredictable, potentially big factors, the declining quality of polls, the huge range-of-observed-data problem with likely voter models, and the number of conflicting indicators, the only rational thing to do is ignore the horse race. We need to focus on solving crises, not on unreliable reports of how the battle is going.