Friday, June 23, 2023

There were lots of red flags with the NYT UFO story

The more you dig into the New York Times recent coverage of reports of alien contact, the worse it looks.

Back in 2019, veteran journalist Keith Kloor had an excellent post on our seventy-six year fascination with UFOs. Given recent events, this section is particularly relevant.

Today, a new set of crusading actors are reviving a UFO narrative with all the trappings of America’s first round of extraterrestrial enchantment. On December 16, 2017, Politico, the New York Times, and the Washington Post published near simultaneous stories about an obscure $22 million Pentagon project that officially existed between 2008 and 2012.

All three outlets had essentially the same story: The Pentagon program was created at the behest of former Democratic Senator Harry Reid in 2008 and was run jointly for a time with Bigelow Aerospace in Las Vegas, whose owner, Robert Bigelow, has long been on the hunt for extraterrestrials and poltergeists.

Politico and the Washington Post treated the Pentagon program as it appeared to be: A pet project of a senator that didn’t amount to much — other than “reams of paperwork” — and did not provide evidence that alien spaceships were buzzing our skies. Both stories had well-placed sources in the intelligence community that were skeptical of the program’s purpose and deliverables. Absent any salacious details, neither story got wider pickup.

The New York Times, however, played up dubious tidbits that the Washington Post or Politico either didn’t find credible or simply didn’t know about — namely that the program had found “metal alloys and other materials… recovered from unidentified aerial phenomena,” that got stored in a Bigelow Aerospace warehouse. There is no indication in the Times story that any of these “materials” were seen firsthand by its reporters.

The Times also had something its competitors apparently didn’t: Grainy footage of two Navy F/A-18 fighter jets in 2004 tracking an apparent unknown object “traveling at high speed and rotating” off the coast of San Diego. The 45-second video and the Times front page article went viral.

But there’s more to the Times story that should’ve given readers pause.

One of the authors of the story was Leslie Kean, a journalist with a long-standing interest in UFOs and the paranormal, who published a book in 2010 titled, UFOs: Generals, Pilots, and Government Officials Go on the Record. At the time, activists in the UFO community were coalescing around the goal of obtaining official “disclosure” about extraterrestrial sightings. This entailed finding current military and aviation whistleblowers to come forward and share the secrets they knew about UFOs — or in the case of Kean’s book, tell of the strange flying objects they had seen or learned about in the course of their jobs. In numerous articles in the Huffington Post over the past decade, Kean has discussed her participation in several nonprofit groups involved in UFOs and the “disclosure” movement.

...

The Times, encouraged by Kean, took a serious look at Elizondo and his claims. Other prominent outlets, it turned out, were doing so, too. Two months later, the Times, Politico, and Washington Post stories hit. But it was the Times piece that reverberated across the media landscape.

Around the same time, Kloor also wrote this critical examination of key NYT source Luis Elizondo for the Intercept.

I mentioned Kari DeLonge’s response — about Elizondo having taken over AATIP and run it “out of the Office for the Secretary of Defense (OSD) under the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence (USDI)” — to Sherwood, the Pentagon spokesperson who had told me unequivocally that Elizondo “had no responsibilities with regard to the AATIP program while he worked in OUSDI.”

I then asked Sherwood how he knew that Elizondo hadn’t worked for AATIP during his time with the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, where he was based from 2008 until his retirement in 2017. Sherwood said he’d spoken with OUSDI leadership, including individuals who are “still there” from the time when Elizondo started working in the office.

Maybe Elizondo was running AATIP under the purview of another office or agency within the Department of Defense? Sherwood acknowledged that Elizondo “worked for other organizations in DoD.” But that, too, would have contradicted Kari DeLonge’s statement to Greenewald.

Kari DeLonge did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

It bears noting that, although Elizondo has made a point of providing various documents to reporters (including me) to establish his bona fides, he does not appear to have supplied any materials that validate his connection to the government UFO program he insists he led. No memorandums, no emails discussing deliverables or findings, and no paperwork addressed to or from him that connects him to AATIP.

The documents he has provided include recent annual Defense Department performance evaluations and his October 4, 2017 resignation letter to then-Defense Secretary James Mattis, which bears the apparent seal of the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense. In the letter, Elizondo alludes to internal opposition at the Pentagon to investigate UFOs that he wrote had menaced Navy Pilots and posed an “existential threat to our national security.” He was leaving, he strongly implied in his letter, because the Pentagon wasn’t taking that threat seriously.

The letter does not mention AATIP or Elizondo’s role as its director.

...

In 2017, when Elizondo outed himself to the Times, he was portrayed as a reluctant whistleblower and a little paranoid. The three reporters who shared bylines on the story, including freelancer Leslie Kean (who wrote in 2016 that she was “privileged to welcome” Chris Mellon into the UFO organization to which she belonged) met Elizondo in a “nondescript Washington hotel where he sat with his back to the wall, keeping an eye on the door.”

On the Times’s podcast, “The Daily,” [Complete with spooky music -- MP] Helene Cooper, the newspaper’s Pentagon correspondent, described Elizondo as a “spooky, secretive guy” but added that he was “completely credible.” He showed her documents, pictures, and military videos of potential UFOs, which appeared fantastic to her, but also persuasive. “I did believe him,” Cooper said on the podcast. “It seemed completely credible to me in the moment.”

Later on, after she left the hotel room, Cooper acknowledged that doubts crept in. In the end, though, she decided that what mattered most was whether the Pentagon’s UFO program was real. That, she said, was the focus of the story.

 

Except that really wasn't the focus of the story. Here's Jeff Wise writing for New York Magazine in 2017.

The fact that the program really existed was the part that the Times touted as its big get, but that wasn’t what set the internet on fire. What got people excited was the implication that the program had collected evidence of encounters with unidentified flying objects. In reporting this part of the story, reporters Helene Cooper, Ralph Blumenthal, and Leslie Kean were much less careful about maintaining a critical eye. “The program produced documents that describe sightings of aircraft that seemed to move at very high velocities with no visible signs of propulsion, or that hovered with no apparent means of lift,” the article asserted, later adding: “The company modified buildings in Las Vegas for the storage of metal alloys and other materials that Mr. Elizondo and program contractors said had been recovered from unidentified aerial phenomena. In addition, researchers also studied people who said that they had experienced physical effects from encounters with the objects and examined them for physiological changes.”

The straightforward presentation of these assertions implies that the authors believe them to be true. But they beg for elaboration. Were the produced documents credible? In what way were the buildings modified, and why was it necessary to modify them in order to store this material? What does it mean for an object to be associated with a phenomenon? What were the claimed physical effects, and were any physiological changes found?

 ...

In a follow-up story for the Times Insider about how the story came to be, reporter Ralph Blumenthal makes it sound like the Times scored an exclusive by getting Elizondo to open up to them, writing that he and two colleagues “met Mr. Elizondo in a nondescript Washington hotel where he sat with his back to the wall, keeping an eye on the door.” The implication is that Elizondo feared the repercussions of leaking sensitive information for the first time.

In fact, when Elizondo spoke to the Times he had left government and was promoting the launch of a new venture called To the Stars … Academy of Arts & Science, a website that is trying to crowdsource donations to study paranormal phenomena. Before the Times told his story, To the Stars’ main shareholder, former Blink-182 guitarist Tom DeLonge, had previously promoted the venture on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast.

 

 What left out of the NYT narrative was, while less incredible, arguably more interesting, from the through the looking glass world of Bigelow and the Skinwalker Ranch to the actual science and engineering that offered plausible explanations for that "footage of unidentified flying objects that couldn’t be explained." (Worth noting that Scientific American never jumped on this bandwagon,)

The New York Times had plenty of critics telling them they were at risk of serious reputational damage, which might have helped if the paper were capable of listening to critics.


Thursday, June 22, 2023

Thursday Tweets: "Wifi radiation opens up your blood-brain barrier so all these toxins that are in your body can now go into your brain."

Still trying to get my head around Kavanaugh turning out to be one of the better Republican justices (of course, the bar is low and he is just starting out).





 



Josh Marshall has a good essay on how all of these scandals (Alito, Gorsuch, Roberts, and Thomas -- have I missed any?) trace back to the Federalist Society’s Leonard Leo.





RFK jr and Russia

Russia and Vaccines 

Vaccines and RFK jr.










Useful thread and a reminder that the PayPal Mafia is the gift that keeps on giving.

 

Speaking of the PayPal Mafia.


Shades of Claude Pepper...


When I was an undergrad back in Arkansas, one of the main promoters of backwards masking panic gave a presentation. I imagine with a sympathetic audience he could have been rather slick, but this crowd wasn't letting him get away with any misstatement or unsupportable assumption. As the talk went on you could see the realization that he was out of his depth.


And in tech news.





And as always, we end with miscellanea,


Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Extraordinary claims (used to) require extraordinary evidence OR the gray lady and the little green men

I wish I had times to do this justice. When the New York Times just tees one up, you want to take your best swing...

As you may have heard, we now have proof that there a aliens among us, that their craft are capable of defying the laws of physics but are still remarkably prone to crashing, thus providing us with multiple crash sites complete with wreckage to reverse engineer and bodies to autopsy. 

The proof in this case is mainly some grainy videos ...

NASA on Wednesday conducted its first public meeting regarding UFOs, following a year-long study into unexplained sightings. The four-hour hearing was televised and featured an independent panel of experts. The team comprised 16 scientists and various other specialists, handpicked by NASA, including retired astronaut Scott Kelly, first American to spend nearly a year in space. 

“I want to emphasize this loud and proud: There is absolutely no convincing evidence for extraterrestrial life associated with" unidentified objects, NASA's Dan Evans said after the meeting.

 



... and something we heard from a guy who heard it from a guy who definitely knew what he was talking about.

Grusch said the recoveries of partial fragments through and up to intact vehicles have been made for decades through the present day by the government, its allies, and defense contractors. Analysis has determined that the objects retrieved are of exotic origin (non-human intelligence, whether extraterrestrial or unknown origin) based on the vehicle morphologies and material science testing and the possession of unique atomic arrangements and radiological signatures,” he said.

Tucker and other fringe dwellers jumped on this but more surprisingly, so did the mainstream press.

Here's a representative sample from Matt Stieb writing for New York Magazine.

While a previous UFO expert in the government might have been discredited, Grusch has bona fides that are worth taking seriously. Grusch is a 36-year-old combat veteran of Afghanistan who was a member of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force, the program run by the Office of Naval Intelligence to investigate UFO sightings. From 2019 to 2021, he served on the task force as the representative of the National Reconnaissance Office, considered one of the big five of the U.S. intelligence agencies. His colleagues think highly of him, too. Karl Nell, a retired Army colonel who was also on the UFO task force, told the Debrief that Grusch was “beyond reproach.” Nell even backed up one of Grusch’s claims in the complaint: that there is an ongoing competition with other countries to “identify [UFO] crashes/landings and retrieve the material for exploitation/reverse engineering.”
Unfortunately for all these respectable publications, Grusch started giving more interviews and it turns his conversation with the Debrief interview was what he sounds like when he's on his meds.

In his follow-up, Stieb walks back his earlier credulity so fast you can hear the Doppler effect.

The UFO Whistleblower Is Back With More Crazy Claims

Grusch claimed the first UFO case he was briefed on involved a vehicle downed in Italy in 1933; the Mussolini government had allegedly kept it in storage until near the end of World War II. Pope Pius XII “back-channeled” the existence of the object to the United States, which obtained it in 1944 or 1945.

Grusch said he has spoken with intelligence officials who have been briefed on giant UFOs observed by the U.S. military. “A lot of them are very large,” he claimed. “Like a football-field kind of size. I remember interviewing these personnel and thinking, Either these people are lying to me, having a psychotic break, or this is some crazy but true stuff that’s happening. And I have no good explanation that’s prosaic at all for this because this is not explainable by swamp gas, Saint Elmo’s fire, a ball of lightning, etc. This is like tangible, technical craft we’re seeing up close and personal in some cases.”

The New York Times, by comparison, is standing firm, largely because it doesn't have much choice. The authors of the Debrief story are NYT reporters (Leslie Kean and Ralph Blumenthal -- remember those names) and the paper has been all over this story for years, often in full "the truth is out there" mode, ignoring any number of warning signs.

One troubling aspect of these reports is the recurring connections to the paranormal community and its financial backers (you knew there had to be a loony right wing billionaire involved somehow).

Lots of ties to this place.




You don't have to do much googling to realize that a lot of names you're hearing are people who either believe or claim to believe lots of incredible things. Some of these connections are rather indirect. Some are not.

Here's the Kirkus Review of Leslie Kean's 2017 book, Surviving Death: A Journalist Investigates Evidence for an Afterlife:

How do you begin to investigate whether there’s an afterlife, a beforelife by way of reincarnation, a limbo state by which the dead walk among the living, and so forth? Insisting that her intriguing though ultimately unconvincing project is a journalistic account, Kean (UFOs: Generals, Pilots and Government Officials Go on the Record, 2010, etc.) heads off to talk to the psychics. “To locate them, I checked with two respectable organizations that run certification programs for mediums,” she writes. Respectable? That’s a value judgment—and just how does one certify a medium, anyway? The author dutifully explores the ethereal realms, looking into out-of-body and near-death experiences, “intermission memories,” apparitions and auras, and the like. The whole enterprise is garbed in a sort of science-y mantle, replete with terminology along the lines of “living-agent psi” and “materialization.” Mostly, Kean’s argument is one of assertion; as one of her like-minded contributors puts it, “I am now ready to say that we have good evidence that some young children have memories of a life from the past.” Unfortunately, that good evidence is not forthcoming, and in any event, as the same contributor notes, children who express these memories tend to be “very intelligent and very verbal,” which might lead a skeptic to conclude that such stories are inventions of the imagination. In the end, Kean’s case proceeds on touchy-feely grounds (“these feel so clearly external to me, that I am compelled to allow them that reality”) without much in the way of actionable proof: it’s certainly not science, and it’s not really journalism, either.
[I'm certainly glad he didn't go with one of those disreputable organizations that run certification programs for mediums.]

I realize some of these feel like cheap shots, but much of what Kean offers as support for these extraordinary claims boils down to "you should trust my sources because I trust them."

As an indication of just how committed the paper is to this narrative, Kean was given the whole hour of Ezra Klein's last podcast. It starts out just as bad as you'd expect, with a great show of performative "open-mindedness" as an excuse for a lack of critical thinking. Klein does finally start asking a few pointed (though not that pointed) questions toward the end but coming that late, they felt to me more like ass covering than anything else.

There's much more I should be digging into here but I've run out of time. Perhaps we'll come back to this. In the meantime, you might want to check out this good if snarky debunking of some of these claims.




Tuesday, June 20, 2023

Personal financial advice: Cheese sandwich edition

This is Joseph

There is a genre of budget advice that is just about closing a small gap in finances. Most of the time, when I have been skint, this advice was useless. It worked well when I had a junior position and lived in an inexpensive apartment. But if you are really poor it works badly (stop buying Lattes is bad advice to people who are worried about loaves of bread). It got especially bad when we saw avocado toast consumption as the barrier to housing down payments. The median house price in Toronto is 1.27 million (yes, a 20% down payment is over $250,000!) and a typical after tax income is $50,000. The average rent for a one bedroom apartment in Toronto is $2,500 (so $30,000 a year) and you have $20,000 left for food, clothing, medical care (Rx drugs are not covered by OHIP), transportation, and entertainment. If someone managed to save half of their after tax and rent income (15% of gross so above the normal save money book threshold) that is a cool 25 years of savings. If house prices stay stable. 

It wasn't the toast. 

Even two ambitious young people who both save a ton to form a family are getting their house in their mid-30's without help -- on the late side for family formation. 

So this is the context where the UK is going insane about the cheese sandwich. Yes, a cold sandwich with soft sandwich bread, butter, and cheddar cheese inside it. These sandwich have gotten more expensive post-Brexit, as food inflation in the UK has now hit a 45 year high. Is it any surprise that the government response is to eat fewer cheese sandwiches? Yes, a Brexit party member, former conservative, and now a reform party member is suggesting that very basic food items just be eliminated because of rising costs:
Citing inflation in the 1970s she added: 'We just have to be as grown-up about this as we can and stop thinking it is solely a UK problem, because it isn’t.

'We also just have to learn the lessons of the past, which is that prices follow wages, follow prices, follow wages.'

Presenter Jo Coburn asked: 'What do you say to consumers who literally can’t afford to pay for even some of the basics if they have gone up the way that cheese sandwich has, with all its ingredients?'

She replied: 'Well then you don’t do the cheese sandwich ... because we have been decades without inflation we have come to regard it as some sort of given right that our food doesn’t go up.

A few thoughts in this nightmare response. One, is not the UK government trying to stop wages from increasing? Was there not a medical doctor strike over this?  Or a university strike? Or the teachers strike? So obviously this is not just a wages and prices are both adjusting cycle. 

Two, cheese sandwiches are really basic and not an expensive meal option. 

[I know, real economy experts like Mark will tell me that there are better options than a cheese sandwich for inexpensive eating. He will be right. But it is a very nice blend of inexpensive ingredients (the butter is a ton of sandwiches at $5/lb, the bread is $1.50 for 20 slices if you shop at all, 2 lbs of cheese is $12). The recipe earlier was 3.5 ozs cheese ($1.30), 2 slices of bread (15 cents), and butter (looking at serving sizes, 25 sandwiches per lbs is generous so 20 cents). That is 1.70 cents for a lunch item, mostly the cheese, which doesn't have the allergy problems of fillers like peanut butter.]

If a cheese sandwich is an unaffordable luxury then something has gone very wrong. 

Finally, this is all rearranging deck chairs. Food becoming a serious financial stress again is undoing a generation of progress in improving quality of life. Seeing it end should be seen as a real crisis of poor governance, and not a chance to lecture people on their food choices. The real issue is rent is out of control in a lot of the anglosphere and that is feeding into a general cost of living crisis (note my examples mix two anglosphere countries, Canada and the UK, but could add in New Zealand too, if one was really motivated). 

The worry is affordability. If you do a major policy change that increases costs then it would make sense to make sure that there is a very clear benefit. I can see the same issue in Canada. 


Monday, June 19, 2023

A fast follow-up to Mark

This is Joseph.

Mark had this sharp observation in his latest post:
Being mildly pro-diversity has gone from the safest business strategies to being one of the riskiest because a majority of the conservative base has suddenly started passionately caring about something they never cared about before. 

I think it is, in a way, worse than that. Because the right is pushing for such extreme levels of loyalty to these new ideals, there isn't actually any safe position for Disney to take. Or the reptilian lawyers would have identified it and taken it as a public relations move. Instead, you need to adopt positions that are entirely being adopted to annoy other parts of the customer base. If "own the libs" is the standard and no bystanders are allowed, then there really isn't a place to be neutral.

I suspect that Disney (and other such corporations) are waiting for this fever to burn itself out. It is hard to run a national movement based on alienating large groups of potential supporters. But we will see. 

Sunday, June 18, 2023

"It's amazing how strongly people feel about that. I talk about cutting taxes, people go like that, I talk about transgender everybody goes crazy. Five years ago you didn't know what the hell it was"


 


Kari Lake and friend.

 

In the mid-Seventies, All in the Family, the most popular TV show in the country routinely watched by over twenty million households, would feature a drag queen as a beloved recurring character.

 

By the Eighties, the topic was safe enough for the least edgy show on television to do an episode on it.

As Aubry points out later in the thread, the captain is baiting Gopher to get him to move past his initial bigotry, which was a familiar element of what was a common sitcom plot for at least forty years. Old friend/lover turns up having transitioned. lead character freaks out, mentor/trusted advisor reminds them that their friend is still their friend, and they learn to move past their prejudices. 

You can argue that these episodes were patronizing and that the message would have rang truer had producers actually hired a trans actor (which, with the exception of All in the Family, was almost never the case), but the important part, at least with respect to this post, is that it was no big deal. The producers undoubtedly got a few angry letters, maybe even lost a handful of viewers, but outside of a few small groups, no one paid any attention. 

 

 

As recently as 2016, the GOP's nominee would say in his acceptance speech, “As your president, I will do everything in my power to protect our LGBTQ citizens” and no one would really care. And in this one case, Trump is not an outlier. You can find any number of examples of prominent Republicans taking LGBTQ positions that were entirely mainstream but which would outrage the base today.

 


There has always been homophobia and transphobia in our society just as there has always been racism, misogyny, and religious bigotry. It is important to acknowledge our history here, but there is a danger when looking at how much things are the same, of blinding ourselves to see to what extent things have changed in a dangerous and frightening way.


 

As Bob Chipman has pointed out, for decades, companies like Disney have leaned toward a mild, performative liberalism because it was good business. This mostly consisted of empty gestures like putting up a rainbow flag this time of year or running an ad with Fredrick Douglass during Black History Month, or declaring their love for the planet on Earth Day. These things were and are generally popular and allowed the huge corporations to come off as compassionate and concerned. This used to be the safest path, but times have changed.

Target pulled certain products from its Pride collection, citing confrontational behavior by shoppers and the need to protect its employees. Bud Light walked back its brief collaboration with a transgender TikTok influencer, but that didn’t stop it from losing its long-held status as America’s best-selling beer. The brand’s parent company, Anheuser-Busch, issued a quasi-apology for simply doing business with a trans person, but that doesn’t seem to have appeased transphobic boycotters. At the same time, it appears to have alienated LGBTQ people and their allies. 

“When Kid Rock took out an automatic weapon and shot up a case of beer, you did not see anyone from Anheuser-Busch saying, ‘Hey this isn’t OK,’” said Mark Robertson, who has been watching these events play out from Chicago. He co-owns four LGBTQ bars in the city that used to serve a lot of Anheuser-Busch products until that apologetic statement from the CEO prompted Robertson to cut ties.



There's a lot of good reporting in Savannah Maher's piece, but it falls down badly on the most important part of the story.  Yes, LGBTQ marketing always generated protests -- there were angry letters and an occasional blip of publicity and a few people actually followed through with their "I'll never shop here again" threats, but on the whole the numbers were trivial and the positive PR and access to new markets far outweighed any downside. It was good business.

Being mildly pro-diversity has gone from the safest business strategies to being one of the riskiest because a majority of the conservative base has suddenly started passionately caring about something they never cared about before. 

 

 

 Though I know we are not supposed to be this blunt, it is difficult and probably counterproductive to try to ignore the Nazi in the room. The parallels are simply too obvious, not just with the Third Reich's persecution (culminating in mass murder) of homosexuals, but with the larger obsession with perceived decadence, and most of all in the way that a fairly low level and even arguably diminishing level of bigotry can suddenly boil over into a terrifying collective madness.

 

Friday, June 16, 2023

John Galt

This is Joseph.

John Galt, the hero of Atlas Shrugged, has a number of conceptual problems. However, one major issue is the absolutism of individualism. You get quotes like: “No one provides unearned sustenance for another person.” There are a lot of conceptual problems with Objectivism. But today I want to think about two of them, that have leaked into the popular discourse, to ill-effect. 

One, this philosophy is immediately incoherent in a world with children. It tends to devalue non-productive entities, like children, as they cannot earn their sustenance. In the case of an infant, it is even impossible. Yet the decision to not support children as a society leads to a number of poor outcomes, as the current people do not live forever. We get the modern idea of children as a luxury good, as opposed to a critical piece of the future. But societies that are undergoing demographic collapse end up regretting not supporting their future citizens. Ayn Rand's vision has a common problem of libertarian thought -- it talks about an end state without a process to get there. Noziak's method of claiming property is both impossible to implement (how do you make sure that nobody was worse off at the time of the property claim) and simply at odds with the history of how property emerges (a lot of territory has changed hands to the determinant of somebody, even if they are no longer around to protest). Similarly, the world of hyper-competent adults has to have started with some quite dependent infants. 

Two, there is an odd idea in these works that the distribution of talent is oddly bimodal. You have the elite superstars and a bunch of others who are nowhere close. I don't want to say that there is nothing like this, but competitive human talents do not distribute this way on most areas I look at. 

Sports: Just look at Olympic results with objective times. I picked 15 km men's skiing as an example. Look at the times for the top two (37:54.8, 38:18.0) -- there are another 11 players before you get more than 2 minutes behind this time on a 15 km trek. It is not at all like one or two supermen cross the line, and then we go get coffee before the rest arrive. This distribution doesn't look at all like supermen.

Academics: We used to have to rank order students for scholarships. Ranking ordering is hard. It is rarely obvious who is the very top and the order definitely has judgement in it. We also don't see academic departments collapse when the best researcher leaves or retires. Instead, you just see another person become prominent. 

Business: Did microsoft collapse when Bill Gates left? Did Tesla collapse when Martin Eberhard stepped aside as CEO? Did Google fail without Larry Page? To ask the question is to answer it. There are some unique talents in business (Steve Jobs comes to mind, but he needed Wozniak or it would never have started) but companies can continue to be successful with these transitions. The graveyard is full of indispensable men.  

The truth is that there are a lot of talented people in the world who would like to end up in important positions. It isn't that bad government cannot do grave harm to a country. But that the issue is not that the elite might cause problems. More often than not, the elite are the problem. 

But the real insight here is that process is as important as outcome. There is a tendency to argue from current position, but everybody had a period of proving themselves in advance of being currently successful. One of the great flaws with Objectivism (I suspect that we'll get an editor's note as to how it is hard to just pick one), is that it both ignores process (infant -> child -> adult -> leader) and has a hopelessly naïve vision of how talent is distributed. 

Thursday, June 15, 2023

Thursday Tweets -- I thought we could go two weeks without Musk, but I hadn't counted on dictator nostalgia.

I'm not really a finance guy, but I don't think this is a good sign.


 

Or this.


Since we've checked in, Musk has had some memorable tweets...


But this one stands out.



And in other tweets you thought were fake but aren't...






Elsewhere in the GOP.





While on the topic of "traditonal fiscal conservatism," remember those IRS cuts the Republicans demanded?




At least she didn't work in anything about the shape of the earth.


Watergate helped Nixon's stock with the far right.


Who would have thought that Ann Coulter would turn out to be the hitchhiker with the axe. *

Or that Hutchinson would be the sanest voice in the GOP.



As much as I hate to agree with this guy.




"The same issue"


If you're following the UFO story, you need to read this (there's  even a DeSantis angle).

AI News






I want to revisit this, but I suspect the post I end up with will just be a longer version of what Tuffy said.





And misc.

 








* Even the hitchhiker with the axe knows you shouldn't pick up the hitchhiker with the chainsaw. 

Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Do I owe Ron DeSantis an apology?

[For the record, none of this applies to Michael Hiltzik, who pushed back on the standard narrative from day one.]

Andrew Gelman pushed back on my recent post about Ron DeSantis.

It seems to me that you're overstating your case. You say that DeSantis is "devoid of political talent." The fact that someone was nominated by a major party for governor of a competitive state, not to mention winning the election, that's a signal that he has _some_ political talent, no? I can buy the argument that DeSantis had some good luck, but "devoid of political talent"??

And, yes, Gelman does have a point.

For starters, absolute statements about people's character or abilities are almost always hyperbole to some degree. I probably should have been more careful with my language and I almost certainly should have added a couple of qualifiers.

First, when I talk about political talent, what I had in mind was the interpersonal side of the job, the ability to relate comfortably to people, move a crowd with the speech, show some charisma and stage presence. Obviously, there's a lot more to politics than that, and I should have been more clear.

Second, we are talking about the big leagues here. What constitutes practically no talent depends heavily on the standards of comparison. Just as the best performer in your community theater group would look hapless on the Broadway stage, Ron DeSantis shows few discernible gifts for the public facing side of politics compared to what we normally see on this level.

I don't want to spend too much time on examining Ron DeSantis's political career and what was behind it, been there done that, but it is worth taking a couple of minutes to look at 2018 and 2020. The margin a victory in the latter was substantial, but not particularly out of line with what we would expect given the makeup of the state and given that it has become ground central for the MAGA movement.

In the general election of 2018 he won by a fraction of a percent against a flawed Democratic candidate in a reddish purple state. Arguably, the one recent campaign where he overperformed was the 2018 primary and as much as one hates to concede a point to Donald Trump, the primary driver of that victory seems to be the decision to attach himself to the then president like a remora.

And if that categorization seems a bit unfair, watch the clip.




But all of this is straying from the main point. Politics is very much a field where it's better to be lucky than good and mediocre politicians catch favorable winds all the time. There's nothing very interesting about that part of the story, nor, at this point, is there anything particularly controversial about it. Here's how NYT columnist and reliable team player, Frank Bruni recently described watching DeSantis campaign. [Emphasis added.]

From the breathless media coverage of Ron DeSantis’s recent visits to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, you could easily get the impression that:

  • Voting starts in approximately five minutes.

  • You’re really watching a new Netflix series about a body snatcher’s attempts to pantomime just enough humanity to amass power on Planet Earth.

  • The Florida governor’s entire candidacy hinges on his wife, Casey DeSantis.


Bruni is one of the guys you go to for a consensus opinion and he is definitely delivered here. Suddenly everyone seems to have discovered that DeSantis isn't very good at this whole politics thing. Here's another recent opinion piece by Bruni that makes the same point at greater length. And since we're talking about standard narratives, we have to quote Politico.

For some time now she’s been seen mostly and by many as an absolute superstar of a political spouse, a not so “secret weapon,” even something like his saving grace — an antidote for her sometimes awkward husband, social in a way that he is not, charismatic in a way that he is not, generally and seemingly at ease in the spotlight in a way that he so often and so evidently is not.

The article later goes on to discuss "the perception of a novice, faltering DeSantis that’s also visible in a slide in early primary polls," and suggest the Casey is actually the brains behind the campaign.

I'm not sure I'd assign any value to the Politico piece as journalism -- there is usually little to be learned from juicy off-the-record quotes presumably from sources with axes to grind -- but as a gauge of conventional wisdom it's hard to beat.

I read the Bruni piece on first wives and skimmed the Politico profile of Casey DeSantis and I'm reasonably sure I managed to cull everything of value. There's nothing there that justifies the time it would take to read them. The only interesting aspect here is the complete and completely unacknowledged reversal in the narrative. [note to Andrew Gelman: yes, someone out there probably did acknowledge it but I don't personally know of an exception and I really liked that sentence.] 

For more than a year, the NYT, Politico and all the usual suspect, palpably delighted to have a leading Republican contender with Ivy League manners who didn't put ketchup on his steak, wrote article after article (some as late as this February) about how DeSantis was an unstoppable force. Now history has changed. We have always been at war with Eastasia and Ron DeSantis has always been bad at politics.


Tuesday, June 13, 2023

Who would have thought that deciding to base a pick-up on those cars from Blade Runner would lead to engineering issues...

Before we get into this, it should be noted that the market reacted (or more accurately, failed to react) to this by pumping the stock up 15%. The main driver of the surge appears to be a deal with GM and Ford to partner up on an expanded charging network. The bull case seems optimistic, particularly when you remember that many of these same people justified their sky-high valuations partly because Tesla had exclusive rights to its charging network.

From "A Leaked Tesla Report Shows the Cybertruck Had Basic Design Flaws" by Jeremy White Aarian Marshall

In May, the German newspaper Handelsblatt began reporting on the “Tesla Files”: thousands of internal documents provided to it by a whistleblower. Among those documents was an engineering report that might give some insight into why the vehicle has taken so long to come to market. The report, dated January 25, 2022, which WIRED has examined, shows that the preproduction “alpha” version of the Cybertruck was still struggling with some basic problems with its suspension, body sealing, noise levels, handling. and braking.

This is on top of the issues we already knew about, including...

Stainless steel is not easy to shape or mold, “Hence the look as if it's the output of a student in an in-class ‘Pop Quiz Number 1’ for the course ‘Intro to Car Design,’” says Raj Rajkumar, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at Carnegie Mellon University.  The material requires specialized welding techniques, and it doesn’t flex easily, which could be dangerous in a crash, when force usually absorbed by a “crumple zone” could be transferred to cabin occupants instead, Rajkumar says.

Experts have noted that the odd shape of the vehicle, and particularly its sharp edges, will make it hard for the Cybertruck to meet pedestrian protection rules in Europe, and possibly in other markets.  “These long, unbroken sheets of metal, with the sharp lines and a humongous windshield, make me think there’s going to be some real issues with potentially passing safety regulations, especially outside the US,” Gartner’s Ramsey says.

Addressing all of these manufacturing and engineering issues is likely to have substantially pushed up the price of the Cybertruck. Musk initially said the pickup’s price would start below $40,000. However, by 2021 those attractive price estimates had already been removed from Tesla’s website. Musk told shareholders last year that the vehicle’s specifications and pricing had changed since its introduction in 2019.

 It was, however, this paragraph that particularly caught my eye.

“You need something new to reinvigorate the story. Whether that’s the humanoid robot, the Tesla Semi, the Cybertruck, Full Self-Driving, all of those are fair game in the eyes of the Tesla PR machine to keep the narrative going about continued growth,” says Jeffrey Osborne, a managing director and senior research analyst who covers Tesla at the financial services firm Cowen. “The logical [first] one of all of those is the Cybertruck.”

 We've been making similar points for a while now. From 2017:

Finally, it is essential to remember that maintaining this “real-life Tony Stark” persona is tremendously valuable to Musk. In addition to the ego gratification (and we have every reason to believe that Musk has a huge ego), this persona is worth hundreds of millions of dollars to Musk. More than any other factor, Musk’s mystique and his ability to generate hype have pumped the valuation of Tesla to its current stratospheric levels. Bloomberg put his total compensation from Tesla at just under $100 million a year. When Musk gets tons of coverage for claiming he's about to develop telepathy chips for your brain or build a giant subterranean slot car race track under Los Angeles, he keeps that mystique going. Eventually groundless proposals and questionable-to-false boasts will wear away at his reputation, but unless the vast majority of journalists become less credulous and more professional in the very near future, that damage won’t come soon enough to prevent Musk from earning another billion dollars or so from the hype.

And from 2022:

 

Maintaining his current fortune requires Musk to keep these fantasies vivid in the minds of fans and investors. People have to believe that the Tesla model after next will be a flying exoskeleton that can blow shit up.

Here are the primary exoskeletons of the Musk empire as of 2022.

Full Self Driving (Beta but see below)

Cyber trucks (one handmade prototype after all these years. Accepting checks now. Production always "next year")

Optimus the friendly robot (literally a dancer in a robot suit)

Fitbits for your brain (mainly an excuse to torture small primates to death)

Super fast tunnelling machines (actually slower than the industry standard)

And the one of these things which is not like the other...

Starlink (doable technology, absurd business plan, horrifying externalities)

From a business standpoint, FSD is the most important and a big chunk in the stock plunge may be a reflection of how it's going.