Elon Musk has become a genuinely important topic of conversation with implications for business, media, politics and technology. In order to truly follow what's going on, we need to talk about this...
Musk was until recently the richest man in the world because of the astronomical value of the marginally profitable Tesla. That value is based on a string of amazing promises from Elon Musk, none of which he has ever delivered on.
I can already hear the rumbling of the crowd getting ready to list all the impressive cars and rockets those companies have produced. All of which is true. But as we've discussed before, they were the result of solid, incremental, and by no means revolutionary engineering by his staff. Furthermore, they mainly appeared well before the companies shot up beyond anything that could be justified by the fundamentals.
About seven or eight years ago, Musk's promises started becoming unmoored not just from what his engineers were working on, but for what was even possible. As best I can tell, this started with the hyperloop.
[And before the rumbling starts again, though you have heard about hundreds of millions of dollars going into hyperloop companies, absolutely none of that money is going into Elon Musk s air cushion idea. Every proposal and protype you've seen has been for maglev. Companies like Virgin scrapped his concept but kept the name.]
Part of the reason for these increasingly delusional boasts may just have been Musk getting high on his own supply. Take someone with messianic tendencies, give them a full-bore cult of personality, and have even the most respectable journalists refer to him as a real life Tony Stark. You know it's going to go to a guy's head.
But these fantastic claims also served his financial interest. The huge run up in the stock of Tesla came after the narrative had shifted to over-the-top fantasy.
Maintaining his current fortune requires Musk to keep these fantasies vivid in the minds of fans and investors. People have to believe that the Tesla model after next will be a flying exoskeleton that can blow shit up.
Here are the primary exoskeletons of the Musk empire as of 2022.
Full Self Driving (Beta but see below)
Cyber trucks (one handmade prototype after all these years. Accepting checks now. Production always "next year")
Optimus the friendly robot (literally a dancer in a robot suit)
Fitbits for your brain (mainly an excuse to torture small primates to death)
Super fast tunnelling machines (actually slower than the industry standard)
And the one of these things which is not like the other...
Starlink (doable technology, absurd business plan, horrifying externalities)
From a business standpoint, FSD is the most important and a big chunk in the stock plunge may be a reflection of how it's going.
.@elonmusk, is your @Tesla Full Self-Driving software just a trillion dollar Ponzi scheme? Did you become the wealthiest man in history by swindling customers and investors?
— Dan O'Dowd (@RealDanODowd) May 24, 2022
Here's the story, in your own words:#ODowdForSenate pic.twitter.com/HpG0NF9FVK
Here's a typical drive on Tesla FSD Beta, and why it's the opposite of useful. It's most certainly not even close to being "safer than a human", by any factor.
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) February 1, 2022
22-minute drive, 4.5 miles, and WAY too many interventions. pic.twitter.com/oKmkRZ3Tgh
2/ @russ1mitchell has written a superb review of the documentary. I'll try not to plow too much of the same ground. (And I'll say it again, my online subscription to @latimes is a bargain, even if I often gag at the editorials.)https://t.co/hrzmtIqt1M
— Montana Skeptic (@montana_skeptic) May 21, 2022
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