tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.comments2024-03-18T16:50:55.357-04:00West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)Josephhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10760453165301871031noreply@blogger.comBlogger2135125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-52404231761489188632024-03-18T16:50:55.357-04:002024-03-18T16:50:55.357-04:00I really have no idea, but I'm guessing that w...I really have no idea, but I'm guessing that with Cowen it's a mix of traditional science-fiction UFO fandom--the same sort of thing we saw back in the 1970s with people wanting to believe in ESP, Noah's ark, ancient astronauts, dolphins that talk, etc.--and a current feeling on Cowen's part that believers in space aliens are potential political allies. Maybe it's the idea that it's a government or media coverup, along with the general feeling that people who are against the government and the news media will support lower taxes and less business regulation? I'm not sure. In any case, I'm not saying that Cowen's openness to the space-aliens idea is insincere, just that it can be more pleasant to be open to ideas that are supported by your political allies.<br /><br />- AndrewAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-42002783133873298302024-03-15T15:04:28.662-04:002024-03-15T15:04:28.662-04:00I probably could have worked in streaming by way o...I probably could have worked in streaming by way of the Paramount sale, but it would be a stretch. MPAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-66254104479941501302024-03-15T08:34:05.449-04:002024-03-15T08:34:05.449-04:00Nothing about Netflix?Nothing about Netflix?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-86596071541480443282024-03-14T12:36:57.896-04:002024-03-14T12:36:57.896-04:00Not to worry, the true believers won't quit: ...Not to worry, the true believers won't quit: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/03/the-new-uaps-report.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-41495160256855988372024-03-12T02:29:10.140-04:002024-03-12T02:29:10.140-04:00As long as I don't have to fix it. MPAs long as I don't have to fix it. MPAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-23718327440760406992024-03-11T19:49:44.270-04:002024-03-11T19:49:44.270-04:00^ the dictionary weighs in ^ the dictionary weighs in Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-68362699111607747932024-03-11T19:48:30.292-04:002024-03-11T19:48:30.292-04:00https://www.instagram.com/p/C4VeGODOBdl/?igsh=MTBz...https://www.instagram.com/p/C4VeGODOBdl/?igsh=MTBzcnljem53dmJxMw==Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-15726251874380865662024-03-11T14:27:30.727-04:002024-03-11T14:27:30.727-04:00It's "Daylight Saving Time" It's "Daylight Saving Time"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-30531105913273354652024-03-08T04:29:24.513-05:002024-03-08T04:29:24.513-05:00I wrote this from some rougher-than-I-realized not...I wrote this from some rougher-than-I-realized notes around one in the morning on a workday. Obscenely was a poor choice of words. I should have gone with embarrassingly or self-indulgently. The lesson here is always give your rants a second read.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-2633511913542129732024-03-07T20:04:29.501-05:002024-03-07T20:04:29.501-05:00Mark:
Setting aside the content here, I don't...Mark:<br /><br />Setting aside the content here, I don't get why you say that 25 pages is an "obscene length." Lots of magazine articles are that long. It might be that this article doesn't have 25 pages worth of content, in the same way that typical airport-style nonfiction books don't have 200 pages of content, but I don't see the length being obscene.<br /><br />AndrewAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-39695053170990076672024-02-29T23:18:22.864-05:002024-02-29T23:18:22.864-05:00im simply not going to vote for anyone who's a...im simply not going to vote for anyone who's actively funding a genocide and simultaneously throwing vulnerable populations under the bus as a means for doing so...maybe next time tho!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-23111512405257711382024-02-19T12:02:45.934-05:002024-02-19T12:02:45.934-05:00This is a good post. I think it also illustrates t...This is a good post. I think it also illustrates the biggest problem of trying to make friends with a Realpolitick dictator -- no matter what you do they will still prioritize their interests over yours, even when it would be better for them to be considering the long run value of good relations. Josephhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10760453165301871031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-55164867148967690412024-02-05T13:16:26.978-05:002024-02-05T13:16:26.978-05:00Good catch on the bit where she claims that elimin...Good catch on the bit where she claims that eliminating "a tax break for moving expenses when a company ships operations overseas" will encourage companies to ship operations overseas.<br /><br />Your general point about incoherence in these arguments reminds me of a <a href="https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2007/08/23/in_the_strange/" rel="nofollow">discussion we had a few years ago</a> regarding incoherence in liberals' and conservatives' stances on the economy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-10234562020233582942024-02-02T14:49:26.899-05:002024-02-02T14:49:26.899-05:00Andrew,
I believe the epicenter of the modern ant...Andrew,<br /><br />I believe the epicenter of the modern anti-vaxx movement (specifically the autism epidemic) was West Hollywood/Santa Monica. Polls that predate that might not be helpful.<br /><br />We also might need to distinguish liberal from left here. Party ID would be particularly misleading.<br /><br />But even if there wasn't any D lean before, the YouGov poll suggests there's a big R lean now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-76354977412045453252024-02-02T09:38:32.469-05:002024-02-02T09:38:32.469-05:00Mark:
I don't think it's true that anti-v...Mark:<br /><br />I don't think it's true that anti-vaxxers used to be left leaning. I looked into this once (I can't remember when and I can't find the blog post now), and, yes, I know this is something that people say---there's some image of new-agers somewhere north of San Francisco who worship crystals---but I seem to recall that old polls did not find any association of anti-vax attitudes with political liberalism.<br /><br />JFK conspiracies, I don't know. Given that JFK is a popular hero and a Democrat, it would make sense that conspiracies about his death would be associated with the left.<br /><br />AndrewAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-87141421608199542082024-02-02T04:53:18.292-05:002024-02-02T04:53:18.292-05:00(this is Mark)(this is Mark)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-29056238815631010342024-02-02T03:54:14.743-05:002024-02-02T03:54:14.743-05:00Anti-vaxxers and JFK conspiracy nuts used to be if...Anti-vaxxers and JFK conspiracy nuts used to be if anything left leaning. Now these and virtually all other major conspiracy theories poll heavily Republican. Probably a mix of Republicans becoming loonier and the loons becoming Republican. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-30787490359664409272024-02-01T13:00:27.716-05:002024-02-01T13:00:27.716-05:00Interesting. I thought of the UFO-space-aliens thi...Interesting. I thought of the UFO-space-aliens thing as being neither left nor right, or maybe more left than right in that the space aliens thing doesn't fit into biblical fundamentalism.<br /><br />But if the belief has shifted over to the right, that can make it appealing both to right-wing pundits who can present it as an anti-government conspiracy theory, and also to center-left pundits who can use this as an issue to show how open-minded they are.<br /><br />AndrewAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-80922778200552244312024-01-22T09:05:51.565-05:002024-01-22T09:05:51.565-05:00Yeah, sure, that sounds good. If you'd been s...Yeah, sure, that sounds good. If you'd been saying this back in the summer of 2022, then I'd be impressed!<br />-AndrewAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-86906103812956519352024-01-18T21:18:11.866-05:002024-01-18T21:18:11.866-05:00That struck me too. In investment terms, it's ...That struck me too. In investment terms, it's asking Tesla shareholders to turn over $60 billion or more worth of capital to Musk, in return for which Tesla owns the fruits of Musk's AI innovation. Even if you believe Elon Musk, Certified Genius, will dominate AI technology and you want a part of the action, it would be much cheaper to capitalize a new startup. It just makes no sense that any investor would agree to these terms.<br /><br />But does that mean no one will agree? Obviously this is playing on both Musk's reputation as and his willingness to blur the boundaries between his own business ventures and Tesla's.<br /><br />Mark Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00679759743973537361noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-53444617130910026192024-01-18T14:20:26.190-05:002024-01-18T14:20:26.190-05:00I think it is critical that we recognize that this...I think it is critical that we recognize that this is just transferring a huge amount of wealth to Elon Musk with no guarantees of success. It is not an argument for performance based stock options that would vest if he succeed with AI and robotics start-ups. Josephhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10760453165301871031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-1232061072621842282024-01-03T03:07:20.091-05:002024-01-03T03:07:20.091-05:00It would be interesting to know how much these and...It would be interesting to know how much these and other economic assumptions figured in his model. -- MPAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-56649153629267805702024-01-02T10:28:39.339-05:002024-01-02T10:28:39.339-05:00I think there's also a problem with characteri...I think there's also a problem with characterizing a recovery as "U-shaped" or "V-shaped." Life isn't that simple.<br /><br />AndrewAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-30538733530525905702023-12-20T02:49:36.443-05:002023-12-20T02:49:36.443-05:00And, yes, "going all out in support of Biden...And, yes, "going all out in support of Biden" was badly worded. "All out" can cover some extreme territory, but in the case of Trump vs. Biden, actual objective coverage would give us lots of stories that make Biden look good and tons of stories that would make Trump look bad. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-15184768916047776292023-12-20T02:31:00.030-05:002023-12-20T02:31:00.030-05:00Andrew,
I could hardly miss that argument. For th...Andrew,<br /><br />I could hardly miss that argument. For the editors of the NYT it's virtually a mantra, but while they probably believe it themselves, I don't buy it. They start with a flawed and self-serving definition of "objectivity" and then fail to hold even to that. Proactively slanting reporting to ward off charges of liberal bias to ward off charges of liberal bias is itself bias. Any paper that would give less coverage to the leaking of state secrets than to a literal dog-bites man story cannot be called balanced and objective. No one can read the puff pieces about DeSantis and Haley in the news, analysis, and opinion sections of the NYT and argue that the paper has a sincere aversion to advocacy journalism; they are just averse to it when it gets them in trouble.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com