Monday, March 27, 2023

“Gradually, then suddenly.” (I thought I'd have more time.)

I'm not surprised that we're seeing early signs of buyer's remorse, but I didn't expect to be so soon or so dramatic. As recently as the beginning of last week, the dominant narrative still had DeSantis with a comfortable hold on the nomination. There was some concern over Trump playing the martyr card over the indictment, but even if that did become a serious issue, that was hardly something you could blame the governor for. Hadn't not just Fox but the NYT, Politico, and the rest of the mainstream media had told us ad nauseam that DeSantis was a master politician who had made himself the new face of the Republican party. In the space of a few days, the convention wisdom has gone from optimistic to highly skeptical.

We were skeptical pretty much all along. It has been obvious for a while now that DeSantis isn't actually that good at politics. He lacks charisma and other relevant talents. He had a mediocre record until 2022, when he ran hard MAGA  in a heavily MAGA state where the Democratic party had recently imploded. On the national stage, he was if anything under-performing given the unprecedented PR build-up he'd received. These points are not so controversial now, but we were in a very lonely place when we made them back in August.

DeSantisis's only viable path to the nomination and to the presidency has always been actuarial, secure the number two spot and hope that something takes Trump out before the convention and Biden out before the election.
It's not clear who the Republicans could tap if not DeSantis, so don't expect the establishment to give up on him quite yet.
I have a number of DeSantis pieces in the draft folder. I'll still tey to get them out, but they won't seem nearly so prescient.

No comments:

Post a Comment