To better visualize observed data, we’ve turned it into a Stegosaurus. pic.twitter.com/jtiTT6fSfS— Eve Vavagiakis (@EveVavagiakis) May 5, 2020
I was pretty hard on Kevin Hassett here — but not hard enough 1/ https://t.co/6MbhNTZUnS— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) May 5, 2020
So, a lot of economists from both parties signed a letter praising the appointment of Kevin Hassett to CEA. I wonder how they're feeling now? Anyway, remember this the next time someone accuses people like me of being too partisan ... https://t.co/Fmlltl8I4O— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) May 5, 2020
This excerpt from a British officer's 206 (fitness report) seems apropos:
"His men would follow him anywhere, but only out of curiosity." https://t.co/J68spT8fGn— Thomas Levenson, Zṓiarchos (@TomLevenson) May 5, 2020
Wow. They really did publish a cubic fit with deaths heading to zero.
Notice the visual trick here of trying overlaying outdated forecasts next to that cubic fit, which is the only way of making it look sane. https://t.co/h82Pxv307F— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) May 5, 2020
Man did this sucker age well or what https://t.co/vPcgBtHHlu— scott cunningham (@causalinf) May 6, 2020
It is insanely, disqualifyingly wrong to think
deaths will "essentially stop" by May 15. Deaths tend to lag cases by ~2 weeks. Case levels have been basically steady for weeks. Even if new cases were declining today (they aren't), we'd still see large death counts through May. https://t.co/083Znn0nV8— Jeremy TEST/TRACE/ISOLATE Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk) May 4, 2020
I would bet $538 that the White House's "cubic model" is literally just an MS-EXCEL trendline with a third-degree (cubic) polynomial. https://t.co/TvrHm25dB6— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 5, 2020
So @jimtankersley talked to Kevin Hassett about the whole "cubic model" mess, and long story short, I'm pretty sure Hassett owes @NateSilver538 $538.https://t.co/wRDLk6KgyG https://t.co/cP6zsdVEuU pic.twitter.com/43ml5VHBjw— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) May 6, 2020
What you need to look out for is when deaths go negative. It sounds good at first, but I've seen lots of movies on this and it never works out well.— Mark Palko (@MarkPalko1) May 5, 2020
No comments:
Post a Comment