Tuesday Tweets -- If you're in a hurry skip to the end. It's essential reading

This is what epidemiologists I know are sharing. The good news I get from this is that the problem can be solved. The bad news is that the way to solve it is by doing the exact opposite of everything we've been doing.

With Italy quarantining millions and contemplating critical care rationing in hospitals, and Iran's health system in chaos, it's fair to ask if this is possible in the US.

Bottom line is: the longer we wait to act, the more likely it becomes.

I've made some charts.

— Jeremy COVID-19 IS NOT LIKE FLU Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk) March 8, 2020

Snazzier than my sketches :) https://t.co/VrBQV0OExs

— Jeremy COVID-19 IS NOT LIKE FLU Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk) March 9, 2020

That graph deserves revisiting.

There are so many of these great animations about “reducing the peak” on Twitter.

This is what we at @WHO mean by flattening the curve, slowing this down, allowing time to prepare. #COVID19 https://t.co/rQTymCFpKV

— Maria Van Kerkhove (@mvankerkhove) March 9, 2020

 

The Italian example is even more worrisome than the initial accounts suggest.

This is the "Italy's in trouble because they are have a national health system" nonsense

To be clear:

MDs per 1,000: Italy 4.0, USA 2.6

Hosp beds per 1,000: Italy 3.2, USA 2.8

The problem is surge of COVID19 has overwhelmed northern Italian hospitals

This can happen here https://t.co/kp3IqxIbJu

— Ashish K. Jha (@ashishkjha) March 9, 2020

35% of the people in ICU are less than 65 years old in Lombardy.

That's a number that gives an answer to those that said that the disease affected primarily (in severe cases) older populations.

That's not the case and Lombardy's healthcare system is on the brink of collapse. pic.twitter.com/pwrGO3gXL4

— Odysseus (@OdysseusIthake) March 8, 2020

 
Some particularly idiotic comments by Elon Musk prompted this reminder that not all billionaires are created equal.

In 2015, Bill Gates told me a deadly flu-like pandemic spreading under globalized conditions was the most predictable disaster in the history of the human race, and so there was no excuse to not be prepared for it.

I'm thinking about that a lot lately. https://t.co/2XlyCtTdwW

— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) March 6, 2020

The always reliable Sarah Kliff.

Arkansas can only test five patients for Coronavirus per day.

Maine can't test any yet.

Washington State has a backlog of tests it hasn't gotten through.

New from me, @katie_thomas and @NickAtNews on the Coronavirus testing scramble.https://t.co/aQcmTe5He6

— Sarah Kliff (@sarahkliff) March 7, 2020

" the exact opposite of everything we've been doing."

On current trends it will take South Korea only 3 weeks to get initial spread of COVID19 under control. But that requires exceptionally broad testing and strong mitigation. https://t.co/UUCQvBAUgd

— Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) March 10, 2020

This is also a good time to observe that the economic costs of the South Korean approach will almost certainly be less than the cost of continuing to pursue our current course. As with climate change, paying now is cheaper than paying later.



And finally, this thread from an Italian ICU MD makes one of the most important points you'll read all week.

2/ This is the English translation of a post of another ICU physician in Bergamo, Dr. Daniele Macchini. Read until the end "After much thought about whether and what to write about what is happening to us, I felt that silence was not responsible.

— Silvia Stringhini (@silviast9) March 9, 2020

20/ I finish by saying that I really don't understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there's no mask on sale anymore. We don't have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?

— Silvia Stringhini (@silviast9) March 9, 2020