Just so we're clear. We are
edging closer to see hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of tax dollars go to highly dubious projects, not because the promoters have introduced major technological breakthroughs or have proposed well thought-out plans, but because they managed to wait out their critics, counting on reporters' eagerness to believe a too-good-to-be-true story and reluctance to do the hard work of digging into the complex engineering details. Yes, there have been exceptions, but by now they are all but drowned out by the hype and bullshit.
Ryan Kelly, Head of Marketing and Communications for Virgin Hyperloop
One, told CU that the next major step is to build what the company
calls a “certification track.”
That track would be a little over seven miles long and would enable
the company to go beyond what it has achieved at its privately-funded
test track. That means putting people in the pods for the first time,
developing a switching system that would allow multiple pods to travel
in the tube at the same time [I'm not sure about this part. I think the switching system may be for allowing the pods to take different forking paths. -- MP], and seeing if a pod can safely travel
through the tube at a much greater speed than it has so far (to achieve
the kind of travel times the company has promised, pods would have to travel more than twice as fast as the XP-1 did in Nevada).
...
Officials in India recently announced
that a proposed Virgin Hyperloop One project connecting Pune and Mumbai
will be moving into the procurement phase, although Kelly said that the
company has not yet decided where to build the certification track.
“Whether India is going to be able to provide the support in order to
certify globally (is still unknown)…the U.S. I think has a better
opportunity to potentially do that and so that’s why states are kind of
vying for that now,” he said, adding that the company estimates the cost
of building the track in India at “about $500 million.”
“Our timeline here is that we want to have the certification track up
and running by 2024, somewhere in the world, and we want (the
Hyperloop) certified and ready to go,” Kelly added, explaining that,
even if the track is not built in Ohio, the planning and procurement
process for the Chicago route could continue for the next five years,
and, once the technology is certified and approved, “we break ground.”
An estimate of the overall cost of a Hyperloop connecting Chicago,
Columbus and Pittsburgh has yet to be released, but a study by the
Colorado Department of Transportation put a $24 billion price tag on a 325-mile network in that state.
As for who would pay for the $500 million certification track needed
to prove the technology works, Kelly said “we’re looking at a
public-private partnership; (there will be) private investment, but
whatever that public agreement looks like would have to be negotiated
case-by-case…so, we’re also looking for, obviously, what’s the best
offer that we’re going to get to make this happen?”
One more thing.
Mark:
ReplyDeleteMaybe one way to get a grip on this issue is to think about the problem historically. Have there been similar scams in the past that have sucked up billions of public funds in this way?
The only two examples I can think of offhand are:
1. Military. We've spent zillions on unnecessary wars and various super-weapons that have never been used, expensive battleships that don't seem to serve any useful purpose, etc. This is a tough call, as you can always make the argument for deterrent effects, but (a) our military expenditures seem out of control even as deterrents, and (b) it seems pretty clear that lots of the military spending is just done as a way to spend money.
2. University education. Tons of $ spend on student loans etc. and it's not clear that universities do anything close to what they're supposed to be doing in terms of educating students.
For transportation programs, I'm not so sure. Lots of highways have been built that have been really expensive and have arguably made places worse (also, when they count the cost of the highway, I don't think they usually include the economic costs of destroying neighborhoods etc.).
Anyway, my point is that, yeah, this hyperloop thing seems ridiculous, and it's scary to me how many people seem to have bought into it--including people who we might otherwise hope would express skepticism about wasteful use of taxpayer dollars. It's scary and baffling enough that it would be good to understand historical precedents for it.
Maryland declared bankruptcy in the 19th century after overspending on canals and railroads.
Delete(I think I remember an infamous Greek default around the same time but it turns out googling for Greek bankruptcy get mostly the more recent example.)
Definitely fear of missing out on the railroad boom did lead to a lot of nonsense projects. Difference is of course that the technology itself was at least proven.
Leland Stanford's creative accounting with the Central Pacific allows him to accumulate a fortune.
DeleteHe founds Stanford.
Stanford lays the groundwork for Silicon Valley.
Silicon Valley inspires the tech messiah mania.
And the cycle of life continues.
One thing I find truly baffling is the willingness of politicians and commentators to embrace this idea who where once so opposed to other forms of mass transportation improvement. Ohio Republicans were so opposed to federal funding of a rail line connecting Cincinnati, Columbus, and Cleveland, that they sent the free money they received to build that system back to the feds. Here we are now with State officials under a Republican Governor meeting to discuss this as a real possibility. Maybe they just really really hate trains?
ReplyDelete