We're watching a bunch of guys convinced that everyone who had their jobs before them were just stupid slowly discovering - without learning a damn thing - that there were in fact very good reasons why no one did the 'obvious' thing before them. This is why.
— "Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social) April 10, 2026 at 9:48 AM
I have long argued that the key to healthy and productive social media use (or at least microblogging social media use) is never to use the algorithm and to keep your follow list as short as possible. My list on BlueSky is twenty or fewer, and of those, perhaps a dozen post frequently (OK, I'm at twenty-one, but that includes the long dormant Russ Mitchell who I've kept on the roster just in case).
Life in general is so much better if you, as much as possible, only listen to people who have something worthwhile to say. I’ve found historian Bret Devereaux reliably meets that standard. Recently, he’s been bringing his expertise in military strategy and tactics to the site with regular threads on the war in Iran.
I’ve already sung the praises of Devereaux (Joseph has been a fan even longer than I have). If you’re on BlueSky, I highly recommend giving him a follow.
I mean, this is in a way the logical response to the breakdown in negotiations, "if we can't use the strait, neither can you," but folks aren't going to like it. Assuming they didn't yet get around to unfreezing Iranian foreign assets, there might be some leverage there, too, as I understand it.
— "Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social) April 12, 2026 at 6:42 AM
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I don't envy whoever's job it is going to be to actually formulate a legal blockade (it won't be 'any and all ships' because legally it cannot be) and find the legal excuse to include outbound oil and gas from Iran in it. But I guessed this might happen a while back. bsky.app/profile/bret...
— "Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social) April 12, 2026 at 6:46 AM
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The leverage here that exists is that in a purely mechanical sense, the United States can endure the economic consequences of a blockade (and sustain it) functionally indefinitely. But Iran is going to burn its forex reserves and be unable to make payroll fairly quickly, as I understand it.
— "Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social) April 12, 2026 at 6:48 AM
The problem is the politics: it is going to be hard to sell voters on the need to endure weeks, perhaps months, of supply disruption just in order for the administration to avoid taking the 'L' on this war (because that's all we're really doing at this phase). So they have to hope Iran blinks.
— "Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social) April 12, 2026 at 6:49 AM
My own view here, of course, is that while there is a logic here, this is probably the wrong decision and that the right thing - for the national interest - is probably for Trump and Vance to take the 'L.' But it is a pretty big L with nasty long-term implications.
— "Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social) April 12, 2026 at 6:52 AM
Addendum: Seeing a lot of folks saying, "surely this will piss off allies" (true!) "and china" (true!) "and so someone will stop this." (false!) Blockades as part of war are legal, no one else has a navy capable of breaking a US blockade and blockades rarely draw in new belligerents to wars.
— "Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social) April 12, 2026 at 6:54 AM
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