One of these days, I need to do a serious thread on my take on the capacity and likely impact of LLMs (tldr version: big advance in natural language processing; major productivity boost for coding and a few other fields; but loads of ugly unintended consequences; probably a Langley steam airplane). For now, though, I'm keeping the focus on the AI bubble.
For those of us old enough to remember the dot-com bubble, there are some disturbing parallels. I am always reluctant to make too much of historical precedent—there are certainly some differences here—but the differences themselves aren’t all that reassuring.
The ads of the dot-com Super Bowl, at least those that have lodged in memory, were mainly about establishing brand awareness, be it the notorious sock puppet or the dancing chimpanzee followed by the tagline “we just wasted 2 million dollars.”
The ads of this weekend’s Super Bowl, at least those I got around to watching, seem to be about convincing potential customers that this is a product they would like to use. The difference in tone reflects the fact that while the excesses of the dot-com boom were widely mocked, people didn’t hate the underlying products the way surveys indicate they do AI.
One exception was the Anthropic ad, which seemed to want to start a pissing war with OpenAI. It’s the sort of competitive back-and-forth you might expect in a mature industry, with a company trying to gain an edge over its competition—think about those “I’m a Mac” and “I’m a PC” ads from back in the day. Anthropic and OpenAI, however, are two money-imagining startups that are still raising cash primarily on the assumption that some product they will come up with in the future will be the killer app.
One key similarity between a quarter of a century ago and today is that I suspect both sets of ads are primarily intended to convince investors that not only is this the next big thing, but that the payoff is just around the corner. That corner turned out to be quite a few years later than promised for the dot-com companies. We’ll see how things work out for this generation.
Chris Isidore writing for CNN:
If there was an overriding message throughout the Super Bowl ads last night, it’s that artificial intelligence is your friend.
...Americans have widespread concerns about how AI is changing society, from jobs to social relationships, surveys show. But AI companies, flush with cash from surging stocks, used the Super Bowl not to sell specific products but instead sell a vision of a kinder, gentler AI future.
The ads were about selling peace of mind – the kind people will need to adopt more AI tools and splash out on AI-enabled devices, subscriptions and other fare. Without that buy-in, AI companies could struggle to turn a profit. After hundreds of billions of dollars in investments, that’s a concern that’s already starting to spook markets.
Two-thirds of respondents in a September Marist poll said they “believe AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates.” Members of Gen Z and women were especially likely to feel that way. And about four in 10 people polled said they “rarely or never” use AI tools.
...In real life, though, some experts worry there could be widespread job loss from AI in the years ahead. Rapid data center buildouts are also prompting concerns that rising electricity and water use will push up Americans’ bills.
These were not the first Super Bowl ads promoting AI services. But they were an overwhelming presence Sunday night, prompting some social media backlash.
...But the AI companies apparently believed that the reported $8 million they spent for 30 second spots was worth it: In the streaming age, the Super Bowl is the one event a year that not only brings in top viewership but includes viewers willing to watch the ads rather than skip past them.
And the AI industry needs the help winning Americans over.
“Americans are much more concerned than excited about the increased use of AI in daily life, with a majority saying they want more control over how AI is used in their lives,” said Pew Research Center, summing up a recent survey on the topic. “Far larger shares say AI will erode than improve people’s ability to think creatively and form meaningful relationships.”
More thoughts from The Internet of Bugs
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