L.A. County is home to more than nine million people, spread over 4,000 square miles. Registered voters received their ballots a month ago. As soon as they arrived, voters could drop them in the mail or deposit them at one of more than 400 secure, 24-hour drop boxes located across the county. Within a couple of days of being received, voters with email accounts were notified that their ballots had been properly counted. According to the city, more than half of residents vote by mail in a typical election, and there are reasons to expect early voting to be higher this time.
For those who preferred or needed to show up in person, early voting centers have been open for some time. The state has also maintained a strong presence to ensure no one interferes with the process.
I doubt even this administration could be so stunningly ignorant of the facts on the ground as to believe it could have any real impact — at least not in its favor — on the vote (though that may be a weak spot in my argument). It's possible that this is an attempt to drum evidence of "irregularities" or it might be nothing more than another attempted display of dominance, reacting to a real counterblow with empty bluster.
This ties into a couple of larger points that don’t get the attention they should:
First, as Krugman and Marshall have pointed out, the playbook Trump is using is largely modeled on that of strongmen like Putin and Orbán, who were riding high in popularity and overseeing rapidly recovering economies. There’s no reason to believe these techniques will be as effective under current circumstances — and considerable reason to think they might backfire.
Second — and this is the one no one talks about — the United States is a big country, both geographically and demographically. Despite the impression given by movies like Red Dawn, it would be extraordinarily difficult to impose anything resembling sustained martial law over even just the blue states, especially when the majority in those regions oppose the government.
A group that controls all three branches of the federal government and has abandoned any pretense of following the Constitution or the rule of law can, and likely will, do horrifying things — but it can’t do everything it wants. It’s essential to remember, when fighting back, that though the side in power may have huge advantages, it still faces real constraints.
The worst mistake the opposition can make is imagining them as omnipotent.
Comments, observations and thoughts from two bloggers on applied statistics, higher education and epidemiology. Joseph is an associate professor. Mark is a professional statistician and former math teacher.
Monday, November 3, 2025
I don't think the administration is going to try to suppress the vote in L.A. (because I don’t think they can).
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