The abortion narrative – – convergence, herd mentality, and the inability to say "oops"

To understand the politics of 2024, you need to understand the political journalism of 2022.

Tom Bonier, the analyst who probably came off the best over the past couple of years, has a highly recommended thread commemorating the anniversary of the Dobbs decision.

On the 2nd anniversary of the Dobbs decision, I figured I'd share a reminder of how abortion rights has become the most powerful single issue in politics, and is likely more salient now than it was in 2022.

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) June 25, 2024

 [For those who prefer their threads rolled up, here's a link.]

One important aspect which Bonier hits only tangentially is how rapidly the establishment press, particularly the New York Times and Politico, converged on the Dobbs-won't-matter narrative, and how far they have been willing to go to protect it from a growing mountain of conflicting data.

After you've been following the mainstream press for a while, the appeal of the narrative is not difficult to reverse engineer. If you are leery of being seen as a cheerleader for the Democrats, nervous about Republicans working the refs, and generally inclined to picture yourself as sober and above the fray," no big deal" was the obvious choice.

https://x.com/MollyJongFast/statu

 

 

 

 

Some of the sharper and more independent minded observers like Bonier immediately spotted trends in the data that undercut the narrative...

I shared that finding in a tweet and a hastily assembled chart the next day. To be clear, I have never seen a registration surge among any specific group like this before, and don't expect to again. pic.twitter.com/ZO8VV1IfQt

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) June 25, 2024

But most data journalists were treating the data as a drunkard's lamppost, a source not of illumination but of support for the approved Dobbs narrative and for that of the red wave. 

NYT 2022/10/17

Since the midterms, we've seen a lot of moonwalking and "but next time it'll be different" analyses, often with a data-based veneer (there is an essential distinction between following the data and coming up with an argument that supports your preferred point and doesn't conflict with the data). There has also been an alarming rush to credulously embrace Republican spin about how the election is going. The latest example being that Trump and the GOP have successfully pivoted to the center.

 

 

 NYT columnist and good soldier, Ezra Klein:

I found myself, this week, watching Trump’s May 1 rally in Waukesha, Wis. Most of it features Trump’s constant stream of overstatement, false nostalgia, wild braggadocio and barely veiled threat. But the tenor changed when Trump turned to abortion. Here, Trump swung suddenly to the left of his own base. The goal, he said, was “to get abortion out of the federal government. Everybody wanted that. That was uniform. Then about 10 years ago, people lost their way. They started talking about — how many months?”

This is Trump’s pivot on abortion. Unlike other Republicans [The "other" is doing a bit of heavy lifting here. -- MP], he’s saying the goal wasn’t, and isn’t, a nationwide abortion ban. The goal was letting states decide for themselves, and now they are.

“There are some very conservative states that voted a very much more liberal policy than anybody would’ve thought,” Trump said. “Very liberal policy, a couple of states. I won’t mention, but a couple of states really surprise people. But, basically the states decide on abortion. And people are absolutely thrilled with the way that’s going on.”

Thrilled? The one time you can hear the crowd boo Trump is during his abortion spiel. But he doesn’t back down. I don’t know if Trump’s effort to run to the center on abortion will work, but he’s definitely going to try, even if it offends his base. Is there any issue on which Biden is doing the same? 

With the possible exception of Klein and a couple of interns at Fox, no one actually believes that focusing on the overturning of Roe V Wade constitutes a pivot to the center, even if we forget about all the times that Donald Trump has abandoned actual centrist positions from previous campaigns. Dobbs was insanely unpopular from the beginning and has only grown more so as its scope has increased and the horror stories have accumulated, and Dobbs was correct is very much Trump's position.

Here is Donald Trump bragging about ending Roe v. Wade over and over pic.twitter.com/5MdthlkZbH

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) June 24, 2024

 

RNC Chair: It is absolutely critical to remember who it was that put anti-abortion and conservative judges on the district courts, on the circuit courts, and nominated the three conservative justices to the United States Supreme Court that overturned Roe. That was Donald Trump pic.twitter.com/VY9dVHTZSX

— DNC War Room (@DNCWarRoom) June 24, 2024

[I don't hear a lot of booing.]

As spelled out in a typically solid TPM post by Emine Yücel, the Republicans have no good messaging options when it comes to reproductive rights and particularly IVF. At this point, they're simply thrashing around looking for the least bad option. Perhaps the only thing working in their favor is the reluctance of publications like the New York Times and Politico to admit they got this story wrong.