On a lazy Sunday, I want to point you to a column by Josh Marshall. It has a lot of good points about how the best person to be making the decision about whether Joe Biden should run in 2024 is . . . Joe Biden. I disagree that the only time to have done this was at the beginning, but the window for a contrary decision is closing fast. Furthermore, Donald Trump, an exceptionally challenging figure as president, is almost certainly going to be the Republican nominee.
Now there are some possibilities left to prevent this outcome. But there really isn't a strong challenger arising that can beat the core of Trump's support. Indictments never help a candidate, but they also are unlikely to lead to convictions before the election (if ever). There is an old joke that an incompetent lawyer will add a year to the length of a trial. A competent one will add much more. It is possible that Aileen Cannon will force a speedy trial but so far she looks like she is treating his Florida prosecution as bog standard normal, which inclines towards a long trial. Reality Winner was a much less complex case, and it took from June 3, 2017 to June 28, 2018 for a conviction (which included her changing her plea to guilty).
So you will have a current incumbent president who has beat his challenger before. The challenger is battered by indictments but beat a previous Democrat candidate. Even worse, the alternatives include some really odd choices: RFK Jr. is surging among Republicans. It would be an odd choice to pick a candidate with support primary among the opposition, especially since one possible source of his popularity could be a perception he will be easy for Donald Trump to beat.
So the Joe Biden question comes down to two things. Is he willing. Uh, yes, obviously yes. Is the Republican candidate likely to be able to play a major weakness against him. Well, it at this point, it looks pretty obvious to me that the most probable match-up advantages Biden.
And Marshall has a great piece on why, given these facts, it's time to stop speculating about primaries and start planning for the next election.
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