Small update on Sinema

This is Joseph.

We've been interested in the Krysten Sinema story from a game theory perspective -- was it a brilliant move to go independent to avoid a Democratic primary race. Josh Marshall reported on how many DC insiders see this as a great move. Here at the blog, Mark and I were skeptical. 

But then I saw this article which pointed to actual polls. If these polls are remotely accurate then it is terrible news for this plan. Now, the pollster points out:

Ruben Gallego is leading all his potential competitors (a good sign for Gallego) but in no matchup does he exceed the 50% mark (a good sign for the GOP and Kyrsten Sinema).

Ruben Gallego being the front runner for the Democratic nomination, should the Democrats decide to run a candidate.  This under 50% is a true statement but the question here is whether it makes sense for Sinema to run. 

Looking below at favorability, Gallego is +6 with independents and +56 with democrats. Sinema is -6 with independents and -19 with democrats (only -4 with republicans, her strongest group). But the three possible replication candidates range from +21 to +30 with republicans, so it isn't like that is a natural base for her to poach important levels of support. She does beat all three possible republicans with independents, but Gallego does even better without losing support from his own party. (Doug Ducey is in the polls but not the favorability ratings). 

But these are completely intuitive results. The worst case for Gallego is running against a moderate republican (it is a purple state) and not having Sinema in the race. That said, most of the time she hurts the republican more. Look at Doug Ducey, who looks like Gallego's toughest fight at this stage. 

With Sinema: D 32, I 17, R 27, Undecided: 23

Without Sinema: D 38 (+6), R 34 (+7), Undecided 28 (+5)

There is a general pattern of Sinema possibly hurting the Republican candidate, stealing more support from them, more than the Democratic candidate. Now undecideds could break heavily R and create a path to victory for Doug Ducey or Blake Masters (even the weakest R candidate is currently outpolling Sinema). But what is the advantage to either side in not running a candidate?

Sinema votes for D priorities the majority of the time, including judges. Why would Rs not run a candidate with that pattern of favorability (Karrin Taylor-Robson is more popular with Ds than Krysten Sinema, an impressive feat). But the argument against Ruben Gallego running crucially depends on Sinema winning -- if the Rs could field a candidate that could pull in the D base (and, obviously the R base) then what is the benefit of losing while doing well with independents? Keep in the mind, many of the normal mechanisms that would bolster support for the Democratic candidate like "they won the primary" and "our candidate, right or wrong" are not going to work with an independent who specifically avoided obtaining this support. That the Republican candidate might poach support from the Democratic base against the independent candidate is a clear sign of how extraordinary this situation might be. 

Finally, the threat of going negative has to considered in context of whether you want this to become a common tactic to remove the D senate candidate. Consider:

Sinema’s allies say that Gallego will get tarred as too left wing and also hint darkly that they’ve got a load of oppo to use against what Palmeri oddly terms the “twice-married Gallego.” Either might be true. I have no idea. But neither makes Sinema more viable.

But any race could have an independent appear and start smearing a candidate. If you give into these threats then you'll be constantly abandoning races. The key is that Sinema has a -19 favorability among her own party in her own state. That is a basic political skill. 

To make the independent trick work, I suspect that you need to personally be very popular (so that stepping aside is a pretty clear win) as well as being a pretty reliable ally. Angus King is a sitting independent senator and is 62-28 (+34) in his state of Maine. Bernie Sanders has a favorability rating of 64 in his state of Vermont in 2020, down from an epic 80-17 (+63) in 2016. Sinema is 37-47 (-10) in her state of Arizona. Neither Sanders or King gets national headlines attacking D priorities like the minimum wage from the right. 

All of this to say that the polls just don't support this maneuver and her conduct as a senator is probably why they don't. It doesn't help matters that Mark Kelly has won as a D twice since Krysten Sinema's historic win, making Arizona a state with two D senators, at least until Krysten Sinema went independent. But that leaves open the question of why not try to have two again?

So, I agree with Josh Marshall. The path to victory here for an independent with these favorability ratings is very narrow indeed.