The Double Taco -- updated

Groundhog Day: Trump saw his shadow, so there’s going to be two to three more weeks of war.

(Trying to remember—what happened around 9:00 Eastern time?)

Let's check with Josh Marshall.

I think any press person who watched President Trump’s Iran cheer-up session speech on truth serum would have to concede that this was a speech he shouldn’t have given. He meandered. He looked bad and worn out. He had the requisite moments when his degenerate inner monologue creeps into the open: he said that free passage through the Strait of Hormuz is something for importer countries in Asia to deal with, that they should “grab and cherish” the Strait, as though it were some underage beauty pageant contestant Trump was hungering to assault. [He also announced the US was "hottest country anywhere in the world by far, with no inflation.’’ which was both off topic and not exactly reality based -- MP] "What is important is that in political and public opinion terms, there was nothing new or newsworthy in this speech. They didn’t even manage to accomplish this in the narrow and cynical sense of saying anything new that could be a fresh point of public discussion. It was a rambling set of unconvincing excuses no one with any real concern or anxiety about this war (the only real audience) would find convincing. Why are you complaining, he asks? This war hasn’t gone on nearly as long as World War II! LOL.

There’s no announcement coming. There is no plan.

— Kai Ryssdal (@kairyssdal.bsky.social) April 1, 2026 at 6:13 PM

The “taco trade” was always based on multiple fallacies: the assumption that Trump would stop doing this stupid/crazy thing before it did any damage; the assumption that he would not revert to the disastrous policy; and the assumption that the chickening out couldn’t go in the wrong direction.

We have seen at least one case of a “double taco,” where Trump was frightened away from a position that was costing him politically, only to be frightened back into it by fear of MAGA backlash. I realize events seem compressed in this administration—it’s difficult to believe it’s been just a little over one year—but it wasn’t that long ago that Trump, under pressure from the agricultural sectors in his base, publicly reversed his position on mass deportation of farm workers, only to flip-flop again almost immediately when Stephen Miller got to him.

There are numerous reasons to believe that we’ve just seen another double taco, this time with the administration coming very close to a humiliating but probably best-deal-he-was-going-to-get surrender, starting with the speech itself (Why request network time to accomplish nothing but spooking the markets?). There were indications that the Iranians were preparing for a ceasefire up until some point during Trump’s speech. Even the Israelis seemed to be preparing for an American withdrawal.

It was, as mentioned before, an ugly choice, but it would have alleviated most of Trump’s immediate problems—and, given that the markets had skyrocketed on the mere possibility, they unquestionably would have rewarded anything that ended the war.

Nonetheless, as best we can tell, shortly before the time came to pull off the Band-Aid, Trump again chickened out, probably spooked by the inevitable backlash to capitulation. Possibly—given what we know about the man—still enraged by that day’s Supreme Court proceedings.

Regardless, another month of war will bring serious pain points in terms of oil/LNG, helium, fertilizer, and significant stagflationary pressure on the economy—not to mention tremendous human suffering.

None of which can be tacoed away.

PS I hadn't seen this when I wrote this post, but I think it provides even more evidence that Trump was intending on close to a full peace-is-at-hand taco as late as Wednesday morning.