West Coast Stat Views Correction: it turns out August wasn't the worst possible time to start playing Kriegspiel with the US economy

We made that assertion in this post, but it turns out that doing it during a government shutdown is probably even worse.

From Allison Morrow's newsletter: 

In normal times, when the US government is functioning, we the people are entitled to a steady stream of reports that allow us to take the temperature of the US economy. In these not-normal times, when the federal government has shut down, that data stream dries up because the agencies that produce them can’t staff their operations without funding from Congress.

 

That means the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which should have landed this Friday, won’t arrive until the shutdown ends. Ditto two key inflation reports due in the coming weeks.

 

Without those reports, investors, policymakers and business leaders — already navigating the uncertainty of Trump’s on-again-off-again tariffs, his attempted takeover of the Federal Reserve, sporadic bailouts of select foreign nations and random social media outbursts — are flying blind.

 

The longer the shutdown lasts, the more indicators may be delayed, and the more uncertainty takes over. Without a full staff, the BLS can’t collect employment data, which means the September and October reports could both be delayed.

Here at West Coast Stat Views we strive to give you accurate information and well-informed opinions. We apologize for our error.