"Once you get used to all the swords, the Throne of Damocles is actually quite comfortable."

The Trump Trade has given way to the Taco Paradox: the less the market believes Trump's threats, the more likely they are to be true.

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— Robert Armstrong (@robarmstrong.bsky.social) July 15, 2025 at 11:44 AM

Early yesterday, a story broke that, in normal times, would have sent shock waves through the financial world.

Do I really need to say how bad this would be?

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— Kai Ryssdal (@kairyssdal.bsky.social) July 16, 2025 at 8:38 AM

Trump has done a lot of incredibly damaging and stupid shit during his time in office, but destroying the independence and credibility of the Federal Reserve will probably be his most consequentially and catastrophically damaging legacy.

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— Max Berger (@maxberger.bsky.social) July 16, 2025 at 6:44 AM

Do Markets Value Fed Independence? An Event Study.

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— Justin Wolfers (@justinwolfers.bsky.social) July 16, 2025 at 9:59 AM

Wall Street in 2025 resembles a flock of particularly stupid chickens—scurrying for shelter at the shadow of a hawk, then immediately forgetting the threat the moment the shadow passes.

This attempt to undermine and force out Powell is an ongoing effort that neither started nor ended yesterday.

Goal: Crush Fed independence Need a policy tool: Can replace Fed chair only if the chair is malfeasant, criminal, or derelict in duties. Need a violation to allege: Manufacture false concern about construction project management. It's pretextual and dangerous. www.politico.com/news/2025/07...

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— Aaron Sojourner (@aaronsojourner.org) July 13, 2025 at 8:22 AM

If your #1 issue is inflation, this is a five-alarm fire

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— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) July 16, 2025 at 8:41 AM

Apologies for stating the obvious, but historically one of the most effective weapons in the fight against inflation has been the belief that the Fed will not allow it to get out of control. This is one of the many arguments for an independent Federal Reserve—and if memory serves, it was part of the problem when inflation started running wild during the Nixon administration.

[Memory was right for once.]

Once people lose faith that the Fed will do what it takes to keep things running smoothly, the remedies required to set things right become far more severe and painful. At least, that was the lesson of the late 1970s and early '80s.

WASHINGTON (AP) - US inflation accelerated last month to highest level since February. @apnews.com

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) July 15, 2025 at 5:41 AM

Of course, that's only one of many swords. We're also talking about more than decimating our agricultural workforce, imposing tariffs more severe than Smoot-Hawley, greatly increasing the deficit, and having the U.S. economy led by whoever gets to the president first in the morning.

Does anyone else see any signs that these risks are being priced in