Comments, observations and thoughts from two bloggers on applied statistics, higher education and epidemiology. Joseph is an associate professor. Mark is a professional statistician and former math teacher.
Thursday, April 10, 2025
"Because it felt so good when they paused."
When asked why he kept writing for television despite all the aggravations, Harlan Ellison would cite the story of the moron who liked being beaten in the stomach with a sawed-off baseball bat.
"Why did he like being beaten in the stomach with a sawed-off baseball bat?"
"Because it felt so good when they stopped."
Or even just paused, apparently.
The news probably doesn't justify the reaction of the markets bad at this point, not bad is good enough, showing the central importance of lowering expectations.
Josh Marshal predicted Trump would cave one week ago:
As a matter of political predictions, I don’t think this will be sustainable. We’re starting the fun with even the most die-hard Trump reps saying they sure hope it will be awesome through gritted teeth with beads of sweat already forming on their brows. We’re already seeing headlines that talk about the biggest trade regime revolution in a century, a new global age of trade restriction, etc. Again, I don’t think it’s sustainable. There are other new ages that we’re definitely already in. We’ve already wrecked the post-war Atlantic alliance and done irreparable damage to the post-war world order which rests upon it. But this is different. These tariffs could help usher in a new era of protectionism and break past economic and trading alliances. They certainly will push us further in a direction of a high-fear rather than high-trust global order. I’m simply saying that I don’t think these tariffs themselves will last. The pain will be too widely distributed, the ideological hold is too thin and the path to overturning them too clear.
It is almost impossible to overstate how unpopular this policy was, particularly with one group that almost always has Trump's ear. Here was how things looked when the market closed Monday.
Here's where their fortunes stood at Monday's market close:
1. Elon Musk
Net worth: $298 billion
3-day change: down $35 billion
Year-to-date change: down $135 billion
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk
Graeme Sloan for The Washington Post via Getty Images
Elon Musk's net worth has fluctuated wildly in recent
months. Excitement about his proximity to the president has been
replaced by concern, as anger has grown toward the White House's DOGE
agency, and public backlash against Tesla has hammered the automaker's
stock.
The world's richest person
derives his wealth primarily from his stakes in Tesla and SpaceX. His
other businesses include SpaceX, Neuralink, X, The Boring Company, and
xAI.
Trump's second favorite real billionaire
7. Larry Ellison
Net worth: $147 billion
3-day change: down $21 billion
Year-to-date change: down $45 billion
Larry Ellison is Oracle's cofounder.
Elizabeth Frantz/REUTERS
Larry Ellison is the cofounder, executive chairman, and
chief technology officer of Oracle, one of the world's largest software
and cloud computing companies.
Ellison is also a major investor in Tesla and owns a large portion of Lanai, a Hawaiian island.
Along
with OpenAI's Sam Altman and SoftBank's Masayoshi Son, Ellison is
spearheading Project Stargate, a $500 billion AI infrastructure
initiative supported by Trump.
And to add insult to injury...
4. Warren Buffett
Net worth: $154 billion
3-day change: down $14 billion
Year-to-date change: up $12 billion
Warren Buffett is the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.
Reuters/Mario Anzuoni
Warren Buffett, 94, is the chairman and CEO of Berkshire
Hathaway. His conglomerate owns scores of businesses including Geico and
See's Candies, and holds multibillion-dollar stakes in public companies
such as Apple and American Express.
The legendary investor's
track record of capitalizing on market crashes, and his company's scale
and diversification, have made Berkshire a haven for investors who've
pushed its stock up 8% this year.
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