Part of my framework for (what we used to call) the nightly news

On the reactions of various GOP officials to and increasingly erratic Trump administration, here is a quick outline of the assumptions I’ve been using. So far they’ve done a pretty good job explaining the situation and they are reasonably consistent with the takes of people like Josh Marshall (which always makes me feel better).

Much of the GOP and most of its base must now be treated as a cult of personality.

As of 2019, GOP elected officials can be broken down almost entirely into two groups: believers and nonbelievers trying to pass themselves off as believers.

Nonbelievers make constant displays of loyalty to trump out of both personal interest and concern for a party.

Trump demands constant praise and lashes out at even mild criticism. Given his control over primary voters, he is in a position to destroy the political careers of any party member coming up for election in the next 2 to 4 years, possibly even longer.

In addition to fear of political suicide, Nonbelievers also have to contend with the two existential threats that Trump represents to the Republican party.

In the short term, Trump could have a massive public breakdown, or act out in such an extreme way that a solid majority of the country (more than 60%) insists on his removal. As previously discussed, that makes it almost impossible for a party to be nationally competitive.

The long-term threat is that the party continues to double down on policies that cost them support from every major demographic group except for rural white men born before 1960.

The first order of business for the nonbelievers is to keep Trump calm at all cost. This is why so many senators and congressmen who had seemed reasonably sane in the past now talk like characters from that Billy Mumy Twilight Zone episode.

The long-term, on the other hand, explains why those who aren’t singing praises are so reluctant to say anything at all, why the desire to spend time with one’s family has reached such unprecedented levels, and why we are starting to see surprisingly regular trial balloons about an anonymous Senate vote.