While almost everyone agrees that we have never had an administration like this one, very few are adjusting their thinking accordingly.
Even in the Reagan administration—when the president was often out of it and at other times heavily influenced by what he happened to see on TV—the underlying administration was conventional by 2025 standards. The people actually running the government tended to be fairly professional, with extensive experience in government and business. Even the first Trump administration was relatively normal by comparison.
What we have now is something truly unprecedented, and it is foolhardy to use the assumptions and heuristics that worked with previous presidencies to describe what we're seeing now. Often the worst mistake an observer can make is seeing a coherent strategy or conventional tactics when none are there.
When trying to make sense of Trump, you need a new set of guiding principles. Here are the ones I've been using, and they've served me fairly well:
Domination/Catharsis
These are the big two, and they are so closely intertwined that it is often difficult to tell when one starts and the other stops. Josh Marshall, who has perhaps the best track record of any political analyst working today, has long argued that the need to dominate—and possibly even more importantly, to appear dominant—is the key to understanding Donald Trump.
Here's what we said in the aftermath of the Kimmel suspension:
With respect to other aspects, however, this is both huge and unprecedented. Josh Marshall, whose track record is unequaled in these matters, has argued that the key to understanding Trump is dominance and submission. I would add catharsis, distraction, and possibly feral disinformation, but Marshall is certainly right about the main driver. Marshall has termed this the “bitch slap theory” of politics, and that’s about the best description I’ve seen.
The approach of looking overwhelmingly dominant while making your opponent look and feel helpless and weak often works very well, but it has a couple of major downsides. First off, if it fails, you can often find the intended roles reversed, with the bully looking small and ineffectual. On a somewhat more subtle level, a focus on shock-and-awe politics can undermine more low-key and often devious tactics, particularly “boiling the frog.” If you start with boiling water and taunt the frog as you’re throwing it in, it is likely to notice the temperature change.
Catharsis has never gotten its due as a political force—not from news commentators, and certainly not from political scientists. Everything from policy changes to entire movements are heavily influenced by anxious and angry people looking for emotional release. That said, the role of catharsis in the public statements and decision-making of previous administrations is nothing compared to what we've seen under Trump, and we should expect this to grow even greater as the stresses of the office accumulate.
Feral Disinformation
While we can never truly know what's in another person's mind, we can be reasonably confident that Trump believes a large part of the rumors and conspiracy theories that he sees on Fox, on NewsMax, on social media, even when the claims conflict with his direct experience.
LAST WEEK: “Don’t take Tylenol. Don’t take it.” THIS WEEK: … 🤡 @thedailybeast.bsky.social www.thedailybeast.com/trump-79-pos...
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) September 28, 2025 at 8:52 AM
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(At first glance, I thought this said a "Weird AL video," which would have been both funnier and less disturbing.)
Trump tonight appears to have pushed the false "medbed" conspiracy theory, which has spread in the far-right internet over the years. www.yahoo.com/news/qanon-c...
— Alex Kaplan (@alkapdc.bsky.social) September 27, 2025 at 8:14 PM
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Just so there's no confusion, he shared an AI fake of himself pitching a product that only exists in QAnon fantasies.
From Wikipedia:
Videos and podcasts about medbeds have become popular in far-right communities of Telegram, Discord, and Rumble. There are supposedly three types of medbeds, located in secret military tunnels: a holographic medbed, which supposedly diagnoses and cures any sickness,[3] a medbed that supposedly regenerates missing limbs in minutes, and a medbed that supposedly reverses aging.[4] Various companies sell devices or access to medbeds that supposedly heal ailments via pseudo scientific technologies while also including the Quack Miranda warning on their websites.[1][2] The term "medbed" is also used by one company that offers nightly rentals in rooms in their facilities with "highly-energized" beds.[5][1]
Medbed conspiracy theories often involve claims that the devices are utilized by members of a deep state, billionaires, or that John F. Kennedy, is still alive and youthful on a medbed.[1] Belief in these devices is popular among QAnon influencers such as Michael Protzman, Romana Didulo, and YamatoQ.[2][6] On 27 September 2025 Donald Trump posted to Truth Social an apparently AI-generated video (purportedly "breaking news" from My View with Lara Trump on Fox News) depicting himself announcing "medbed hospitals" as a new "healthcare system" for the United States, their nonexistence notwithstanding.[7][8][9] The post was deleted the next day, on Sunday morning.[10]
Regarding catharsis, I'd say that Obama being elected in 2008 offered a lot of catharsis to liberals and the left. I'm not sure how this fits with your points?
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I'll be revisiting this soon. Here are some notes from the upcoming post:
DeleteDid liberals feel some catharsis when Obama won? Certainly, but mainly they felt happy because the country was about to be headed more in their direction. Perhaps more importantly, that catharsis came after they had voted, which limited—though didn’t entirely eliminate—its impact.
By comparison, Bill Clinton’s much-parodied I feel your pain did not leave any voters materially better off, but his credible and (trust me on this one) sincere expression of empathy gave them a measure of relief from their stress and probably helped him win the election. (Quick aside: I was raised in Arkansas and lived there until my 30s. Many of my friends and family—none of whom were rich or politically powerful—had extensive dealings with Bill and Hillary, and I can tell you with a great deal of confidence that the Clintons, particularly Senator Clinton, not only knew the names of the cleaning ladies who worked in the mansion; they knew the names of the children of the cleaning ladies.)
The problem for Americans is that Trump is running out of power over his allies and adversaries outside of the United States. The allies have tried to keep things going but are planning to go their own way and do their own thing together. His adversaries are pretty much ignoring him. And once he can't bully people outside of the US then all that's left is to bully people inside the USA.
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