We've been beating the AI bubble quite a bit lately, partially because the widespread belief that there's a bubble is a story in itself and partially because I find most of the argument from the nothing-to-worry-about crowd unconvincing and motivated (they mainly come from AI true believers).
That said, there is a bit of gray area between the two extremes and we haven't done a very good job capturing that part of the debate. To address that, here's a more nuanced take from Patrick Boyle.
Remember that quote from Citizen Kane?
"You're right, I did lose a million dollars last year. I expect to lose a million dollars this year. I expect to lose a million dollars *next* year. You know, Mr. Thatcher, at the rate of a million dollars a year, I'll have to close this place in... sixty years." *
Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet have lots of money and can keep this rate of spending for a long time. There’s some question as to whether even they can maintain the growth rates being projected by some in the industry, but as long as the big guys remain reasonably committed, the bubble has at least some protection from implosion—if not from deflation.
The current situation is not sustainable. At some point in the near to nearish future, unless these products and services go from losing money to being enormously profitable, the major players will cut their losses and it's going to be ugly whether it happens fast or slow.
* This line was taken almost verbatim from George Hearst's response to people telling him about his publisher son's profligate spending.
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