Incentives

There has been a recent discussion of Ross Douthat's column on women in the West not having enough children and how this is a sign of decadence.  I want to outsource one major objection to this column to James Joyner, who is far from a liberal.  Consider:

Or, as some of our fellow conservatives call it, “taking responsibility for their lives and not having more children than they can afford.” Indeed, Douthat seems to acknowledge that on the part of the individual while lamenting the collective outcome.

and

But this is an argument that we conservatives apply nowhere else that I can think of. Indeed, most American conservatives, myself included, rail against collectivism in much less significant arenas. Let government try to force us to change to a more energy efficient lightbulb or regulate the water capacity of our toilets and the calls for revolution ring out across the land. Encourage us to buy more energy efficient automobiles through tax incentives and corporate subsidies and you’re a tyrant. Suggest that we turn off electronic devices that aren’t in use and you’re at very least a dirty hippy and probably an out-and-out commie. But suggest that women give up the advances they’ve made over the last half century because somebody has to have more kids, why, what could be more reasonable?

I think that this point is completely correct.  Even worse, there are a lot of policy choices that we could implement if we decided (as a society) that we wanted more children.  Just consider programs like "Aid to Families with Dependent Children" that could be reinvented.  Or we could subsidize childcare.  Or add in mandatory long maternity leaves.  Why not use incentives to try and improve collective outcomes?

Sad news

I think that the statement speaks for itself:

My wife, Kimberly Webb Joyner, died this morning in her sleep from unknown causes. She was 41.
She leaves behind two little girls she loved more than anything, Katie, who turns 3 on New Year’s Eve, and Ellie, who was born June 21.

I have always respected Dr. Joyner (even if I often disagreed with him) and I am deeply sorrowed to hear of this tragedy. Best wishes to him and his family from the OE team.

A conservative view on health care reform

I usually read Outside the Beltway to get smart opinions that I am also likely to disagree with. It is one of my ways to avoid being trapped in an “echo chamber” and to get a diversity of views. Today, however, I have to admit that this piece by Steven L. Taylor is very much on point:

Ultimately, all I want is some honesty in the public discourse on these issues, starting with three facts:

a. Yes, Medicare needs reforming,

b. Magical thinking about market forces is not going to work.** I have simply come to the point in thinking about all of this that I believe this assertion to be a dead end.

c. If all other OECD countries do a better job than we do in terms of cost and service, then perhaps we need to be realistic about that fact and look outside for viable models.***

By the way, I don’t pretend to have the answers to this conundrum, but I do think that the debate had to take place within logical parameters that address the actual situation at hand.

[some bridging text deleted to include the relevant footnotes. ed.]

**Understand: there was once a time when I, too, believed that markets in all things was the way to go. Empirical observation, and recognition of the reality around me, has altered my view on this. I still fundamentally believe in markets, but recognize that one size does not fit all.

***This is something else I have changed my view on over time. Indeed, I am not alone. See, for example, the following post from Reason‘s editor-in-chief, Matt Welch: Why I Prefer French Health Care (and yes, the libertarian magazine, Reason).

Now I am sympathetic to the argument that true free market health care hasn't been tried anytime recently. It has some issues that would have to be overcome. Externalities due to antibiotic overuse, for example, are not trivial to handle outside of regulation. Nor is it clear precisely how one would handle fraud in a way that would not be a legal nightmare.

But there are health care models that are both more and less functional than the current United States model. Why would we not look more closely at, for example, the German model before assuming that a massive social experiment makes sense?

A nice comment on investment strategies

James Joyner:

Aside from diversifying one’s portfolio over both time and scope of investments, there’s no great option. As I recently told an investment counselor who was encouraging me to move investments from one fund to a one that “would have a higher rate of growth,” if she really had the ability to accurately predict which stocks would go up, she wouldn’t need to be advising clients for a living. Anyone who claims to know what the market is going to do over the long term is an idiot or a liar.

I think that this comment is right on. I always get worried with investment professionals (who gets paid based on a percentage of your portfolio and not based on how it performs) giving advice on very specific investment options. Diversification and dollar cost averaging are the only elements that really seem to be under my control. Otherwise, as Mark says, focusing on savings is your best option to control your ability to retire.