[First, a word about the admittedly obscure title. There is a chess variant where neither player gets to see the other player’s pieces. When you want to make a move, a referee tells you whether it's legal or illegal and if there's a possibility of a pawn capture. From there, it's up to you to make educated guesses about where your opponent’s pieces are.]
If you keep up with the news at all, you've certainly heard that last week President Trump reacted to a bad jobs report by firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The response has been outraged—CNN justifiably termed it Orwellian—but putting aside how bad this is for democracy, I've been thinking about the disturbing practical implications.
Just remembering I wrote this ~3 weeks ago. For once wishing I’d been wrong. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) August 2, 2025 at 1:30 PM
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He's promising to protect the integrity of the data by firing statisticians who follow established methods of data collection and processing whenever those methods yield numbers that don't please the boss.
— Justin Wolfers (@justinwolfers.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 7:18 AM
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One of the ways we distinguish between a healthy nation and a totalitarian or failed state is by the quality of its data. When countries feel the need to cook their own numbers, it is never a good sign. When they do it this openly, it's even worse.
The U.S. has long been known for producing timely, accurate, and trustworthy statistics, and it is difficult to overstate how essential a role they play in policymaking, business decisions, and investment strategies. The Fed needs these numbers to intelligently set policy. Financial institutions need them to allocate resources and manage risk. If we include data about weather, agriculture, etc., countless businesses rely on this government service on a daily basis.
If these sources of information become less accurate or if you undermine people's faith in them, the direct and indirect cost is immense.
“.. The message .. was unmistakable: Government officials who deal in data now fear they have to toe the line or risk losing their jobs ..” @peterbakernyt.bsky.social @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/u...
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) August 3, 2025 at 8:00 AM
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Even putting aside all those troubling echoes of 1984, this would be incredibly foolish and reckless even under the best of circumstances—and those are not what we're facing at the moment.
A little over six months into this administration, we are facing multiple self-inflicted, unprecedented crises, all of which have the potential to interact in dangerous and unpredictable ways: a massive tariff war; an attack on the independence of the Fed; a potential labor crisis targeting our food supply; destabilization of the institutions that keep society and commerce moving smoothly; stunning levels of corruption; looming financial crises; and the increasing probability of the ultimate economic tar pit, stagflation. Add to that a weakening dollar and a ballooning deficit.
Me three months ago:
— Elizabeth Spiers (@espiers.bsky.social) August 1, 2025 at 3:53 PM
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Can you predict the next 3 months?
— Bribleck (@bribleck.bsky.social) August 1, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Wish I could but here’s what I think; Tariff chickens will come home to roost and you’ll see it in inflation more. Stagflation will be a real possibility
— Elizabeth Spiers (@espiers.bsky.social) August 1, 2025 at 3:59 PM
@Barrons published my op-ed note on stagflation July 1, 2025. This week’s economic data points straight towards stagflation in the second half of 2025. This New Stagflation Coming Won’t Feel Like the ’70s. #Econ #EconSky www.barrons.com/articles/inf...
— Joe Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas.bsky.social) August 2, 2025 at 12:38 PM
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Between devastating cuts and open attacks on the institutions that provide data, the people who will have to navigate these potential catastrophes will have to do so blind.
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