Acknowledging what these people are while being realistic about what they can and can't do

The tendency of pundits and commentators has been to dramatically underestimate just how bad the intentions of the administration may be. Despite what is now a massive accumulation of evidence, supposedly savvy people remain far too reluctant to acknowledge how far Trump, Miller, Noem, Vance, et al. would be willing—indeed, eager—to go.

At the same time, there is an equally persistent tendency to grossly underestimate the gap between intention and capability.

A commenter on Bluesky offered the perfect analogy:

“if the president says he wants to blow up the moon, you should be very scared about what he might accidentally blow up in pursuit of the moon and everything downstream of his diminished mental state, but the ball is in your court to tell me how he’s actually going to blow up the moon.”

The definitive example here is the recurring claim that Trump will cancel the 2026 election and/or run for a third term. Jamelle Bouie (probably the New York Times’ best surviving pundit) has been on top of this for months.

the question to ask about this is, okay, he wants to cancel the midterms. how does he get the VA state board of elections to cancel the midterms? how does he get the georgia board of elections to do it? how does he convince republican house members to quit their jobs and give up their paychecks?

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— jamelle (@jamellebouie.net) January 15, 2026 at 8:29 AM

Bouie realizes that Trump can do terrible things with respect to the election, just not mist of the terrible things he would like to. 

Along similar lines, we hear a lot about the administration looking for an excuse to occupy Los Angeles,* but far less discussion of how they would actually manage to put a metropolitan area with roughly twenty times the population of Minneapolis under military control—particularly given that ICE has reliably turned tail whenever it lacked a clear numerical advantage.

Just to be clear, what we've seen from around the country has been horrifying, but it seems mainly to be masked gangs trying to harass and often terrorize residents. I don't want to understate what's going on, but I doubt that an unpopular administration which has alienated the military could manage an extended occupation of LA, NYC, or Chicago, let alone all three at once. 

That said, this gap does not always work in our favor. If you are counting on TACO, it’s worth remembering that in high-stakes, fast-moving, complex situations, the person bluffing or making empty threats can still lose control of events. The most disturbing scenario here is Greenland.

* Remember: the appropriate unit here is the county.