Wednesday, January 8, 2025

An unquiet night

Fires tear through Pacific Palisades, Altadena, Pasadena and Sylmar; gusts of up to 99 mph reported

For those of you back east, it's important to keep in mind the scale of this place. As far as I know, the fires are in the county but not the city, and the county of LA covers around three million acres, much of it forested. Three thousand acres on fire is a big deal, but we're talking about about a percent here and most of it lightly populated. It could get worse (things have been very dry around here and this windstorm has been fierce),  but for the vast majority of us, the fires are something we see on TV, smell in the air, and perhaps spot as a faint glow in the distance. 

The Santa Anas, on the other hand, have been unavoidable. The National weather service used the phrase “life-threatening and destructive” to describe the predicted storm and it has lived up to the hype. I'm sitting in an apartment lit only by the screen of my laptop. The blackout covers a major part of the county and has been going on for hours with no assurance of power by daybreak. 

A stretch of the 101 is being shut down along with countless smaller roads. Within a block of my place two massive trees came down, one demolishing a car parked on the other side of the street and sheering off the concrete base of a street light. No one was hurt but the road and both sidewalks are blocked and it will be sometime tomorrow when the crews get to it.

So far, I haven't heard of any casualties. There will be a few but hopefully the number will remain small. 

The wind finally seems to be settling and I should probably get to bed.




Tuesday, January 7, 2025

"and barely concealed hostility toward orthogonality"

 [This is one of those topics I keep meaning to get back to then go five years without mentioning.]

Thursday, January 23, 2020

Rhetorical Orthogonality

I'm about to do one of those things that annoys the hell out of me when other people do it, namely taking a well-defined technical concept and trying to generalize it in order to make some big sweeping statements. So I start with apologies, but I think this goes to the heart of many of the problems we've been seeing with journalism and the public discourse (and also explains much of the difficulty that a lot of us run into when we tried to address those problems).

If we think of orthogonal data in the broad sense as something that brings in new information, it gives us a useful way of thinking about the discussion process. I'm thinking in a practical, not a theoretical sense here. Obviously a mathematical theorem does not technically bring any new information into a system, but in practical terms, it can certainly increase our knowledge. By the same token, a new argument may simply present generally known facts in a new light, but it can still increase our understanding. (You might argue at this point that I'm conflating knowledge and understanding. You'd probably be right, but, in this context, I think it's a distinction without a difference.)

My hypothesis here is that (putting aside literary considerations for the moment), good journalism should be judged mainly on the criteria of accuracy and orthogonality, with the second being, if anything, more important than the first. Instead, we often see indifference to accuracy and barely concealed hostility toward orthogonality. We do see a great deal of lip service toward diversity of opinion, but the majority of that "diversity" is distinctly non-orthogonal, falling on the same axes of the previous arguments, just going the opposite direction.

For example, imagine a disgruntled employee locked in an office with a gun. "He's willing to shoot."/"He's not willing to shoot" are nonorthogonal statements even though they contradict each other. By comparison, "he doesn't have any bullets" would be orthogonal. I'd put most of the discussion about liberal bias in the mainstream media squarely in the nonorthogonal category, along with every single column written by Bret Stephens for the New York Times.

Nonorthogonal debate has become the default mode for most journalists. What's more, they actually feel good about themselves for doing it. Whenever you have an expert say "is," you are absolutely required to find another who will say "is not." This practice has deservedly been mocked in cases where one of the arguments is far more convincing than the other (as with global warming), but even when there's some kind of rough symmetry between the positions, it is still a dangerously constrained and unproductive way of discussing a question.

Monday, January 6, 2025

Six years ago at the blog -- reposted just because it's cool

The phrase "those thrilling days of yesteryear" became part of the popular vernacular a few years after the turn of the century daredevils described below thanks to the introduction to the Lone Ranger radio show.

On a related note, a few years later various people including Dan Rather were credited with the observation that an intellectual was someone who could hear the William Tell Overture and not think of the Lone Ranger. 

Now hearing the piece and thinking about the masked man just means that you're old.


Friday, May 11, 2018

"Those thrilling days of yesteryear"

 
I keep getting the feeling that there is some bigger, more profound lesson I should be drawing from these examples of the turn-of-the-century fascination with stunts and daredevils. Surely, the desire to see men and women (there was a surprising degree of gender balance) risk their lives in these elaborate contraptions tells us something about the mentality of the time, but damned if I know what it is.

I do know, however, that these pictures from Scientific American (1903/07/18 and 1905/10/14) were  simply too cool not to post.
























And for those of you who caught the title reference...





Friday, January 3, 2025

"Libertarian Sea Pods: A Hilarious Aquatic Disaster"

Adam Something is an anonymous YouTuber who specializes in debunking silly engineering and transportation proposals, purely those retro future, Galaxy Magazine ideas so beloved by tech bros, for whom he seems to hold a special, if understandable, hatred. The video below is an excellent example of his output, made all the funnier because, unlike so many of these absurd "futuristic" business plans, this one actually made it past the CGI phase and into the disastrous prototype stage.

It is also a bit of a twofer, satirizing not only the technology but also the libertarian seasteading philosophy behind it.




Thursday, January 2, 2025

Apocalypse Deferred

[If this seems a bit dated in places it's because I wrote this a few years ago. I thought I remembered posting it at the time but I recently came across it in my draft folder. Other than missing a few more recent examples, it doesn't seem to have aged much.]

A few years ago, while driving through Oklahoma, I saw a Bible store selling water purification pills. The reason behind that sale was, and is a big story. It affected millions of Americans and continues to have a powerful influence on our politics and yet, with one notable exception, virtually no one in the national press corps noticed.

As some of you might have guessed, the year was 1998 or 1999 and the Bible store was selling water purification tablets because a large part of its clientele thought it was likely that civilization was going to collapse on December 31, 1999.

The best contemporary account probably came from the Wall Street Journal's Lisa Miller:

RAYTOWN, Mo. -- The Rev. Steve Hewitt, an evangelical Christian, preaches a controversial message: The Y2K computer bug is no big deal. "I'm at war to stop the panic," he says.

In the world of conservative Christianity, that stance makes Mr. Hewitt somewhat unorthodox. Some colleagues are prophesying blackouts, martial law, even apocalypse when computers' internal calendars roll over to the year 2000. Meanwhile, Mr. Hewitt, editor and founder of Christian Computing magazine in Kansas City, Mo., is riding the national church circuit counseling people to chill out.

"Airplanes are not going to fall from the sky," he thunders from the front of Spring Valley Baptist Church in Raytown, near Kansas City. "Your car will start. Fire engines will start."

As they did a thousand years ago, some Christians believe that Jesus will come back to Earth around the turn of the millennium accompanied by much tribulation. Suddenly, they are heralding Y2K, which may cause some of the world's computers, power stations and building-control systems to go berserk, as one of the trials that could portend the end of the world.

Meanwhile, evangelists across the nation are advising parishioners to prepare for what Rev. Pat Robertson, of the "700 Club" television program, calls "serious dislocations." A spokeswoman for Mr. Robertson says people might "want to have a little cash on hand, some food, some medicine and some necessary supplies." Around Christmastime, James Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family, increased employee bonuses by about $200 to about $500, and suggested that, among other things, the extra cash could go to Y2K preparations. On his radio show, Dr. Dobson has said he puts himself in the "camp of those who think there will be some tough times before we're through with it."

The warnings are more dire on the Internet, where Web sites linking Y2K to the Second Coming are proliferating. "I've never seen anything grow so fast," says Charles Henderson, who studies religious sites for the Internet guide MiningCo.com (miningco.com ). Michael S. Hyatt, associate publisher at the country's biggest religious publishing house, Thomas Nelson Inc., wrote a book called "The Millennium Bug: How to Survive the Coming Chaos," which is now No. 70 on Amazon.com's weekly bestseller list.

The clergy, often untutored in the arcana of technology, find themselves sifting through the news to arrive at an official position on the computer bug. Morris H. Chapman, chief executive officer of the Southern Baptist Convention's executive committee, told Baptist leaders in September to pray on this question: "If significant disruptions occur, will I be prepared to provide for my family?"

Of course, there are many Christians -- from the most traditional Protestants to the most fundamentalist evangelicals -- who refuse to listen to the alarms. The Rev. Ron Sisk, who leads a Baptist congregation in Louisville, Ky., calls the link between Y2K and the end of time "hooey." The Assemblies of God, a Pentecostal denomination known for speaking in tongues, released a statement in October advising constituents "not to engage in activities such as hoarding food, withdrawing money from banks, believing doomsday scenarios."

But among today's visible and media-savvy evangelical leaders, practically no one preaches a take-it-easy approach. When a few parishioners began to ask the Rev. Larry Heenan, pastor of Spring Valley church here, to buy generators and cots to prepare for Y2K, there was only one person he could think of to calm the masses: Mr. Hewitt.
And about those water purification tablets...
Indeed, an entire industry devoted to helping Christians prepare for Y2K has blossomed. The Joseph Project, a Web site (www.josephproject2000.org ) selling freeze-dried soups and vegetables in bulk, recently advised shoppers that "Y2K awareness has caused a mountain of orders"; a 20-pound bag of carrots costs $115, including shipping. Many Christian Y2K books are cropping up, such as "The Millennium Meltdown" by Grant Jeffrey and "Y2K=666?" by Noah Hutchings.

On his Web site (www.familyinteractive.net/millennium.html ), Mr. Hyatt, author of "The Millennium Bug," sells the "Countdown to Chaos Protection Kit," a six-audiotape set plus an accompanying handbook, complete with "recommendations, checklists, and the essential resources and supplies you'll need to survive this looming crisis"-for $89. And in Sacramento, Calif., Derek Packard came out of retirement to produce "National Y2K Readiness Seminars," a package of three live satellite broadcasts for churches for $1,495 with a satellite dish, or $995 for churches that already own one. (Mr. Packard says he has applied for nonprofit status.)
There have always been a apocalyptic element in Christianity, dating back to the earliest days of the church. Even putting aside Revelations, it is an essential part of the religion, particularly with the evangelical denominations I grew up around.

I say "around" because, as a lapsed Presbyterian, my childhood memories of church have none of this


and lots of this





But for many friends and classmates, end times was something that was a part of their religion. I do want to emphasis that it usually was not a large part. For most, it was far-away and half-believed, mainly background noise.

I haven't made any kind of serious study of this but sometime in the late Nineties, I started to notice that things had changed. For people naturally inclined to see portents, there seemed to be signs everywhere. There was the end of the millennium. There were news reports of massive systemic collapse. The Nineties also saw the rise of a right-wing media establishment that made extensive use of implicitly apocalyptic language and imagery (often hinting at impending race and class wars). The relationship between evangelical Christianity and conservative media is quite complex and deserves a few posts of its own, but for now, let's just say that watching Fox News and listening to Rush Limbaugh didn't help.

Though the distinction may not show up that clearly on surveys and other social science tools, there is a huge difference between saying you believe the end of the world is coming and saying that the end of the world is coming next Thursday. In the late Nineties, for the first time, so far as I know, a large segment of mainstream American churches started treating the events described very vaguely in the book of revelations as something specific and immediate. The Y2K bug was expected to trigger a series of cataclysms that, for those who knew what to look for, would clearly fit with biblical prophecies. Up until the late 90s, even most hard-core fundamentalist had only kind of sort of believe this because "it's in the Bible so you have to. "Now it was something real enough to send you to the Bible store for survival gear.

Once again, I'm no expert but I do know that there is a great deal of literature out there on the subject of into the world Colts, going all the way back to When Prophecies Fail.

It would be great if we could get an expert on cognitive dissonance to weigh in here, but strictly from a layman's perspective, it certainly seems reasonable to conclude that this widespread belief in the Y2K catastrophe has continued to have an effect . People on the far right are clearly predisposed to see the coming upheaval. Tune in to Glenn Beck or watch a Ron Paul infomercial and the message is painfully obvious. A Fox News segment on Muslims or the rise of minorities and the lower classes is only slightly more subtle.

There is considerable overlap between in the world believers and conspiracy theorists. This overlap can partially be explained by a similar mentality. Both groups are constantly on the lookout for patterns and both have the ability to accept as evidence what would seem to be contradictory positions. Fiat money, secular one world government, sharia law , and a bilingual America may not seem to have much in common to you, but to those with the proper mindset, they all tell fundamentally the same story.

Wednesday, January 1, 2025

Season's greetings from Windsor McCay.

[Updated with a higher resolution copy.]






Tuesday, December 31, 2024

More airships from the "English Jules Verne"

We'll be back to serious blogging in 2025, but for now I'm taking it easy. See you on the other side.

Today's dose of retro-future comes from George Griffith's Olga Romanoff, an 1894 sequel to his 1893 novel The Angel of the Revolution (see last Friday's post). That's a world-destroying comet in the background of the last illustration. Griffith liked a big finish.


 

 

 


 


 


 


 


 


 

Monday, December 30, 2024

Cool pictures from the "English Jules Verne"

The Angel of the Revolution: A Tale of the Coming Terror (1893) is a science fiction novel by the English writer George Griffith. It was his first published novel and remains his most famous work.
Griffith was hugely successful in his day but is now all but forgotten. I only came across him because he popped up as a featured article on Wikipedia. The modern consensus seems to be he just wasn't that good of a writer. Certainly nothing I saw made me want to read more than a few lines. I did, however, enjoy the illustrations. 

Angel came out seven years after Verne's Robur the Conqueror, which was itself beaten to the punch by Frank Reade Jr., and His Queen Clipper of the Clouds.  All of these were in the helicopter family though dirigibles were also a popular option. I'm sure an actual expert could come up with numerous other examples. The genre even inspired an early UFO mania in the 1890s.

THE ANGEL
OF THE
REVOLUTION

A Tale of the Coming Terror

BY
GEORGE GRIFFITH

WITH ILLUSTRATIONS BY FRED. T. JANE

FIFTH EDITION

LONDON
TOWER PUBLISHING COMPANY LIMITED
91 Minories, E.C.
1894



 

 


 


 


 

 


 

Friday, December 27, 2024

You should check out Tom Scott

Another YouTube recommendation. 

Scott made an astounding number of entertaining and informative little videos. He recently announced he was taking a break, but with more than 700 already in the can, those new to the channel won't run out any time soon.

"Why sci-fi alien planets all look the same"




"This giant model stopped a terrible plan"

(Students of Post-War hubris will want to read more about the Reber Plan.)




"The UK's last aerial ropeway uses no power, moves 300 tonnes a day, and will be gone by 2036."




"I thought the Schmid Peoplemover was impossible"

Thursday, December 26, 2024

Strandbeesten

Still taking it easy for holidays and posting more cool videos.

Created by Theo Jansen. You'll want to watch this in full screen.






Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Monday, December 23, 2024

I miss CollegeHumor

 We'll get back to the serious stuff Monday, I promise.


My favorite Katie Marovitch sketch.









Friday, December 20, 2024

Thursday, December 19, 2024

Sixties television was filled with heart-warming Christmas episodes often featuring orphans

The Untouchables got a lot of criticism during its original run for its depictions of violence. Can't imagine why.


[Taking it easy with lots of reposts this holiday season but we have big plans for the blog in 2025.]