Monday, June 24, 2024

Campaign Cash -- the spending side

We have to be careful about how we talk about money in an election, particularly in this election. With financial questions, we're used to thinking  in terms of businesses or (two perhaps a lesser degree) household finance where more money coming in is almost always better, as is less money going out. In those situations, the money can usually be seen as end to itself. Whoever ends up with the most wins.

In politics, money is a means to an end. Turning a profit is not an objective. The only good reason for not spending the money is so that you can spend it next time. Normally, this is so obvious we don't have to put a lot of thought into the matter. It is sufficient to ask me how much each candidate is bringing in and how wisely it is being spent. In 2024, however, we can't assume anything is normal.

One of the odd things about the role of campaign funds this time is how little Donald Trump is spending. This was somewhat obscured by the fact that, until his recent surge in fundraising, the GOP simply had far less cash on hand which certainly constrained its expenditures, but even taking that into account, the lack of money going out has been little short of amazing.

I checked in with my friend from Georgia over the weekend. He continues to encounter regular Biden/Harris ads on both television and the radio (and not just Georgia). In the bluer parts of town, there are plenty of Biden yard signs. By comparison, he has seen no ads for Trump and has actually come across more upside down American flags that he has Trump yard signs. It's not as if Trump had a great deal of local earned media in Southeastern swing states. Unless I'm missing an obvious counterexample, he has recently done more campaign events in New Jersey, New York, and Texas than he has in either Georgia or North Carolina.

Yes, the Republicans were cash poor, but they weren't exactly bankrupt. Based on statistics I've seen and anecdotes like this, the level of ad spending, local organizing, and get out the vote operations has been bizarrely low. Even now, after what has supposedly been a very good month of fundraising, if there have been announcements of major ad buys or plans to open dozens of field offices, I've not heard about them. 

There is an exception, albeit an exception so odd that no one seems to know what to do with it.


There are also some questions about exactly how much money we're talking about, but that's a topic for later.

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