Thursday Tweets -- "a moment so cretinous and conflicted and confused that it keeps mistaking con men for seers.”

Curious how "Biden" ends up in the first headline but is conspicuously absent from the second! https://t.co/a7qh7ptCXU

— TJ Ducklo (@TDucklo) October 18, 2023

Via @paulkrugman: "it’s been exactly one year since Bloomberg declared that, according to its models, the probability of a recession by October 2023 — that is, now — was 100 percent. Oops." https://t.co/cDdURl4NZd

— Dan Froomkin (PressWatchers.org) (@froomkin) October 17, 2023

This is extraordinary: The U.S. economy is in a better place than the IMF was predicting back in 2019, despite a global pandemic intervening. pic.twitter.com/A1S6SDMxlZ

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) October 16, 2023

Does this mean they'll shut up?

Filing deadlines:
--NEVADA: 10/16
--NEW HAMPSHIRE: 10/27
--Alabama: 11/10
--Arkansas: 11/14
--Maine: 12/01
--Tennessee: 12/05
--Oklahoma: 12/06
--MICHIGAN: 12/08

Barring tragedy, Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee in 2025. ACCEPT THAT. Sheesh.

— Charles Gaba isn't paying for this account. (@charles_gaba) October 14, 2023

If you have to base government on a sitcom...

House rules should require that if the majority goes 14 days without choosing a Speaker the choice of the minority becomes the Speaker and the most recent failed choice of the majority has to be his butler for the term of his Speakership.

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 18, 2023

Dems exceeded expectations in 2022 by having much better Dem turnout than you would expect in a midterm with a Dem with low approval ratings and high inflation in the WH, yes. But the idea that the dropoff voters are more GOP than Dem is just wrong.

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) October 14, 2023

For the 479th time, every time a Democrat is in front of a microphone, they need to make the interview about reproductive rights, protecting democracy, and SS/Medicare.

GOP Rep. Cole, nominating Jim Jordan: He has the courage to talk about a plan to get at the real drivers of debt. We all know it’s Social Security. We all know it’s Medicare. We all know it’s Medicaid pic.twitter.com/ZSuY8qb5Zz

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) October 18, 2023

On a related note.

We just got the first poll in a while of Issue 1 (abortion rights) in Ohio. It leads, 58–34%.

SurveyUSA/Baldwin Wallace University, Oct. 9-11, 569 LV, MoE ±4.5%. https://t.co/NJJtgKPGac

— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) October 18, 2023

Alabama politicians want to force women to give birth, but 28% of Alabama women live more than half an hour from labor and delivery services, compared to 9.7% nationwide. https://t.co/lkcoQQx9tf

— Mark Jacob (@MarkJacob16) October 18, 2023

Years ago I heard West going after Obama and coming to the defense of Nader's decision to run in 2000. I should have seen this coming.

GOP megadonor Harlan Crow maxed out to Cornel West. https://t.co/HrBkP5cgY1

— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) October 18, 2023

West by Northwest

Nazi art collector Harlan Crow's support for bad boy prof Cornel's presidential campaign might seem like a mystery straight out of Hitchcock. But the idea that it may put Donald back in the White House is giving me vertigo.

by Maureen Dowd

— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) October 18, 2023

I’m the anti-corporate, anti-imperialist, pro-people’s alternative to Joe Biden. Here’s why I accepted the maximum money possible from Harlan Crow

— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) October 19, 2023

Thoughtful thread:

Some quick thoughts on why large parts of the mainstream media keep slipping up on Gaza/Israel (and why it was the same at times with Covid):

The main reason is a failure to keep pace with modern news gathering techniques, but there’s more.

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) October 18, 2023

Always listen to Sullivan.

I understand deadlines. But speed kills. Sometimes literally.

— Margaret Sullivan (@Sulliview) October 18, 2023

"Lost" in the sense that he got the most votes.

🚨 BREAKING: Hakeem Jeffries just lost his 17th straight vote for speaker.

— Rep. Mike Collins (@RepMikeCollins) October 18, 2023

 

It will require at least one dedicated post to list all the problems with this Matt Yglesias post. 

I counted at least a half dozen @DougJBalloon lines in this, but I'm sure I missed a few. https://t.co/AM6ZM3uCCk

— Mark Palko (@MarkPalko1) October 17, 2023

There's no doubt the clips were selectively edited, but this doesn't looked fake.

Literally beyond parody.

Was SNL Too Mean to Congresswoman Lauren Boebert? https://t.co/0g4zCbZXkb via @YouTube

— Mark Palko (@MarkPalko1) October 15, 2023

This reminds me of a gag from an old SNL sketch (the Mack Reardon Story), but I can't find a clip online, so forget I mentioned it.

George Santos just filed Q3 FEC docs, and they may be the worst I've ever seen.

Raised a *negative* sum of money (-$16,526) due to contribution refunds.

Disclosed over $100,000 in new debt, denoted with "treasurer become [sic] aware of prior debt."https://t.co/J9iNE3HTTB pic.twitter.com/T7w37KmiZ1

— bryan metzger (@metzgov) October 15, 2023

The Office of Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks has released the following statement:https://t.co/7l2EkLagx4 pic.twitter.com/R8mUPQ6RRW

— Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, M.D. (@RepMMM) October 18, 2023

Blocking Jim Jordan's bid to become Speaker could have a chilling effect on future wrestling coaches' ability to help cover up sex abuse scandals.

— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) October 15, 2023

Republicans know the ONLY way for them to win is to entrench their power. It’s been their playbook for over a decade now.

We’re fighting back, but we can’t do it without y’all. Our democracy is at stake in 2024, give what you can to help us save it. ⏬️https://t.co/pHSwzvIaPL

— Anderson Clayton☀️ (@abreezeclayton) October 18, 2023

Cartoonishly evil.

"We're gonna deport a lot of people, 10 million people and growing - anchor babies, their parents, their grandparents. We're gonna put kids in cages. It's gonna be glorious." @JasonSCampbell

- Mike Davis, The Article III Project. Ex-Gorsuch clerk.
pic.twitter.com/9C8dCMIQqW

— The Intellectualist (@highbrow_nobrow) October 14, 2023

And just cartoonish.

It’s a wholesome scandal for which someone may go to jail but no one will get hurt. And it’s just perfect for @nbcsnl. I love it so. https://t.co/EQcvpGWB09

— George Conway (@gtconway3d) October 14, 2023

Not as funny, but possibly more costly.

Just left Cossatot School District. The School Board voted to close Umpire School. Governor Sanders and the LEARNS Act blamed by the community for closing of their school. This could cause commutes as long as two hours for some students. One way. #arpx pic.twitter.com/EqvVmbPUwH

— The Rural Caucus of Arkansas (@ArkRuralCaucus) October 13, 2023

I find it amazing he’s still doing this. Elected official wearing a foreign mil uniform and pretending he served in that army is at least weird and actually offensive to both countries. Just unreal. https://t.co/hqQVhbqB0l

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 14, 2023

I think one of the most disturbing aspects of studying disinfo is when you realize that even fact-checking has become weaponized — & that most people don’t care about the truth about the hospital being bombed; they just care about finding *a* truth to use against the other side.

— Caroline Orr Bueno, Ph.D (@RVAwonk) October 18, 2023

More from the angry young sensible Democrat.

Leave me TF alone! I will use my platform to uplift the voices & experts who can speak on Israel and Palestine pic.twitter.com/5juzK8svhy

— 2RawTooReal (@2RawTooReal) October 18, 2023

Since Saturday his feed is 50% fascist color commentary, 50% deep thoughts with Jack Handy. https://t.co/xncolLq3Iz

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 16, 2023

This is the kind of stuff and people one used to associate with Stormfront and other white supremacist sites. Now it’s the owner of Twitter pic.twitter.com/CzuWTbI7vx

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 16, 2023

When I grew up in South Africa, indistinguishable was a lengthy and complicated word. https://t.co/FuPLX1mU60

— fly4dat (@fly4dat) October 15, 2023

“Whoever adapts this story might see it more clearly as what it is — not a sad story of misunderstood genius, but a bleak comedy about a moment so cretinous and conflicted and confused that it keeps mistaking con men for seers.” https://t.co/KiaPL0dp0b

— Jathan Sadowski (@jathansadowski) October 19, 2023

 

This Time it's different.

“Within a generation, I am convinced, few compartments of intellect will remain outside the machine’s realm—the problems of creating ‘artificial intelligence’ will be substantially solved.”
— Marvin Minsky
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1967#oops

— Grady Booch (@Grady_Booch) October 16, 2023

some well-defined things LLMs can’t do that are explained perfectly well in the training set
- abide by the rules of chess
- multiply five digit numbers
- reliably derive inferences from family trees
- count
- sort
- compare weights of different types of objects

— Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) October 18, 2023

Hinton: “AI might ‘escape control’ by rewriting its own code to modify itself”

Me: Also, the laws of physics make it possible that all of the oxygen in my room might migrate to one corner, thereby suffocating me without warning.
https://t.co/47wNSenDpm

— Grady Booch (@Grady_Booch) October 18, 2023

More on Hinton's prognostication record.

As we congratulate Michael Caine today on his retirement, a timeless clip — from his master class on film acting: 💕pic.twitter.com/em2Qc33SX3

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) October 14, 2023

academia taught me to use language in a way that sounds important but disappears when you look at it too long. that's a transferable skill

— rhubarb snackowski (@snackowska) October 18, 2023

I think we all could use this right about now.

The Beethoven Flash Mob playing his 9th Symphony, "Ode to Joy."

Thought by many to be the most beautiful music ever written- truly remarkable when you consider he was stone deaf by the time it was composed.pic.twitter.com/vBqxwPWPdl

— Roshan Rinaldi (@Roshan_Rinaldi) October 14, 2023