A human knight/knave puzzle

In real life, very few people are wrong reliably enough to be useful. You get people who are basically coin flips and others who are wrong most of the time, but in ways that are so predictable that knowing their opinions doesn't supply any useful information (like the booster who always bets on the home team).

The kind of wrong that can be turned into something helpful simply by flipping it 180 is almost entirely the stuff of logic puzzles. Real life examples are vanishingly rare, but at least some investors think they've found one.

Katherine Greifeld writing for Bloomberg:

    Whether you’re a lover or loather of Jim Cramer — and on both Wall Street and Main Street, there are plenty of each — you’re now able to express that view via the magic of ETFs.

    A pair of new products is launching Thursday that will help US investors bet either on or against the stock picks of the host of CNBC’s Mad Money show, arguably the world’s most-famous financial pundit. …

    Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, has turned his attention to Cramer, fulfilling a long-running finance joke that the CNBC anchor should get his own inverse fund.

    “If he specifically says either buy, buy, buy a stock, then we’re gonna go short that stock at the next practical moment,” Tuttle told Bloomberg’s Trillions podcast, referring to the inverse strategy. “If he tells you he hates a stock or sell, sell, sell or something like that, then we’re gonna go long that name again at the next kind of practical entry point.” ...

    The methodology behind the ETFs is decidedly low-tech. To design the portfolios, which are equal weight, Tuttle and two colleagues watch Cramer’s television appearances throughout the day and monitor his Twitter account. The result is two actively managed portfolios that hold between 20 to 50 names with a high turnover rate, Tuttle said. Both products carry an expense ratio of 1.2%.

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