Not much time for blogging...

... or even reading other people's blogs. I've been busy and based on the conversations I've had recently, Joseph is inundated.

Regular blogging will resume soon. Till then you can kill some time with the only popular board game I know of* that has imperfect information but no random elements.


* And no, I wouldn't call this a popular board game.

Wolfmeat

It's time to face the ugly truth: the readership of Observational Epidemiology tends to run more than a little nerd-heavy. That's okay. With the success of the Big Bang Theory, geek chic has never been less uncool.

So there's no reason not to check out this list of math-based games I put together for beginning teachers. You can even go here and find still more.

Of course, I still wouldn't mention it around the cool kids.

In games of perfect information, bluffing is a really bad idea

But that seems to be the Republican strategy on financial reform. Jonathan Chait has the details:

So wait. Republicans think they can limit the political damage of a filibuster if they reach a bipartisan deal. But what incentive do the democrats have to reach a deal? If they can force the Republicans to maintain a filibuster, why not keep the issue going until November? The strategy here seems to be, take a political hit by opposing popular legislation, and then hope that somehow this will strengthen the party's hand in the negotiations to follow. How will this work? It's like trying to bluff your opponent in poker when both you and he know he has the stronger hand.

What's more, Republicans are no longer even pretending to be able to hold the line after today's vote. This is amazing:

McConnell secured a commitment from his conference to hold together in opposition on the first vote, but all bets are off after that, aides acknowledge. McConnell’s challenge after Monday is preventing moderates such as Snowe and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) from breaking away and weakening Republican leverage.

Now that the Democrats know the Republicans are planning to defect after the first vote, why on Earth would they compromise? Moreover, what is the point of taking the hit by filibustering reform in the first place? It could work, in theory, if you could bluff the Democrats into thinking the GOP might hold the line indefinitely. But I'm pretty sure the Democratic party has access to articles published in Politico, which means the jig is up. So now the Republicans are trying to bluff in poker when they and their opponent know they have the weaker hand, and their opponent has heard them admit that their strategy is to bet for a couple rounds and fold before the end. Why not just cut their losses now? This makes zero sense.