Ed Zitron has a new epic post out, massive post out at Where's Your Ed at? To be honest, it's probably a bit much unless you've already fallen deep into the AI bubble rabbit hole. New comers may want to start with his Better Offline podcast where he regularly talks with some of the sharpest AI bubble skeptics Cal Newport, Paul Kedrosky, and Carl Brown. He has also has become a fixture on shows like On the Media (an interview from last year. OTM was characteristically early to the story) and CNBC's Squawk Box looking for a counterweight to the stock pumpers.
This section in particular caught my attention.
From The OpenAI Bubble:
The double-edge sword of a mythology-inflated bubble is that it’s much harder to sustain when said mythology dies. The AI bubble was able to grow to such a horrendous size because the markets and the media were willing to accept basically anything that Sam Altman or the greater AI industry said.
By waving away any economic problems as growing pains and dismiss those who would scrutinize it as haters or cynics, reporters and analysts provided investors with the justification to invest again and again in these companies without them ever having to make a real business, which means that, well…they don’t have real businesses, which is a problem when you need to actually pay somebody money that wasn’t given to you by a venture capitalist.
This will leave the AI industry short-changed in its most-desperate times.
The media is important for many, many reasons, but one of the biggest ones is that scrutiny is what keeps capital in check, for the benefit of humanity and at times the companies themselves. By choosing to pull their punches, ignore glaring economic problems and accept every projection with blind faith, the media empowers grifting and suffocates good businesses as a result, encouraging bad behavior and helping them raise unbelievable amounts of money at ridiculous valuations without worrying about having to make a good business. In some cases, the media even encourages them to do so, saying that “all startups lose money at first” instead of thinking about things for a fucking second.
When companies know they won’t face that scrutiny, they engineer themselves as such, putting off ever finding a real business model in favor of whatever will make them buzzy enough to get coverage and raise funding as a result. In a vacuum of skepticism, bubbles inflate, monsters get rich, and regular people always get left holding the bag. As a result, if companies ever bother to become a real business, they only do so at the very last minute, endangering anyone who has backed them and every counterparty in the event they’re incorrect.
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