Bluesky, Dark Clouds

[Picking up where our last post left off, this will give you some idea of what my Blue Sky feed looks like recently, at least among the econ crowd. Are these stories disproportionately pessimistic? Perhaps—but I would also argue they deserve more attention than they’ve been getting.] 

 

Increasing political pressure on the Fed by half as much as Nixon did, for six months, raises the price level more than 8%. www.nber.org/papers/w32461

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— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) August 31, 2025 at 11:18 AM

The FT matches Reuters’ reporting: “.. [Cook] declared on multiple documents that an Atlanta condominium at the centre of the controversy was a vacation home.” @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/e32d...

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— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) September 13, 2025 at 7:15 AM

I would never defend Scott Bessent's habit of getting into physical altercations with White House colleagues, but if you're going to do that sort of thing, you might as well pick on Musk and Pulte.  

 

“.. It’s a scary thought to have the kind of Fed chair that’s willing to sacrifice the central bank’s independence out of loyalty to the president,” Mankiw said. @politico.com www.politico.com/news/2025/09...

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— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) September 15, 2025 at 5:02 AM

Inside the Fed, there is a preoccupation with doing whatever possible to avoid provoking Trump, which at times has meant complying with his wishes. That cautious approach is drawing scrutiny as its independence comes under threat www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/b... @nytimes.com @bencasselman.bsky.social

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— Colby Smith (@colbylsmith.bsky.social) September 15, 2025 at 4:55 AM

“.. the first sitting White House official to join the modern Fed’s board.” @wsj.com www.wsj.com/politics/ele...

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— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) September 15, 2025 at 2:54 AM

 

I’m coming around to the opinion that the press has miscalculated, perhaps even reversed, the magnitude of the economic stories of 2025.

While the focus has overwhelmingly been on the impact of the tariffs, the potential risk of attacking the Fed has not gotten the attention it deserves, and the economic dangers associated with mass deportation have been largely ignored.

All of these things can have a catastrophic effect individually, let alone combined.

 

For the umpteenth time - immigration is a labor market problem

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— Kai Ryssdal (@kairyssdal.bsky.social) September 15, 2025 at 6:36 AM

With respect to agriculture, the political calculus behind using mass deportations to punish Democratic states was always doubly flawed. First, even in the most blue of states, the agricultural areas are mostly red. Second, Stephen Miller is a fanatical racist and will not stop based on expediency.

The worst of the worst? Produce rotting in the fields! m.youtube.com/watch?v=UqqG...

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— LibsLikeMe (@danihere.bsky.social) August 14, 2025 at 1:19 PM

Produce rotting in the fields ... AGAIN. I guess the racism was more important than growing food. GIFT: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/o...

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— litzz11 (@litzz11.bsky.social) August 25, 2025 at 3:45 AM

Guest Essay by Robert Rivas and Shannon Douglass

Mr. Rivas is the speaker of the California State Assembly. Ms. Douglass is the president of the California Farm Bureau.

California is by far the largest food producer in the United States. In 2023, our state’s agricultural economy was worth nearly $60 billion. The state’s roughly 63,000 farms grow over a third of all vegetables and around three-quarters of the fruits and nuts produced nationwide.

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This bounty all depends on a reliable, skilled and experienced labor force that is overwhelmingly made up of immigrants: Over 80 percent of California’s hired farmworkers surveyed between 2015 and 2019 were from Mexico, and more than half were undocumented. Nationwide, an estimated 80 percent of farmworkers were born outside of the United States, and around half are undocumented.

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What our immigration enforcement agencies are doing now, in many instances — treating hard-working, law-abiding immigrant workers as if they are violent criminals — is a mistake. Prior administrations, both Democratic and Republican, focused immigration enforcement on serious or violent criminals, with success. That’s a critical distinction that should also guide policy today. And it’s what most Americans want: In a July Fox News poll, 59 percent of voters said the government should deport only undocumented immigrants who’ve been charged with crimes.

In our state, we know that fear of immigration enforcement is keeping farmworkers away from the fields. Several weeks ago, ICE officers raided farms and fields in Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties that grow a large portion of the state’s strawberries. Similar raids have taken place at packing houses — locations where picked produce is boxed and shipped. These raids cause confusion and concern among farmworkers and farm owners alike. Lisa Tate, a Ventura County farmer, recently told Reuters that about 70 percent of the workers in the fields around her are no longer showing up. We have heard similar reports from farmers and ranchers across California.

 

Of course it's not just agricultural workers who are being deported. 

www.trouphoward.com/uploads/1/2/...

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— Ben Zipperer (@benzipperer.org) August 20, 2025 at 8:38 PM

Since I don't know enough about housing research to judge the quality of this paper, I checked out who had cited it. Here's what I came up with.

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

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— markpalko.bsky.social (@markpalko.bsky.social) September 14, 2025 at 2:32 AM