Lots of political analysts argued in the wake of Dobbs that this issue wouldn't be that big of a deal. One of the many mistakes they made was assuming that support for abortion was a fixed quantity.
Support for legal abortion has jumped by 15 points since the Fox News poll conducted a few months before the Dobbs decision. pic.twitter.com/JxYtSKAZ6b
— Geoff Garin (@geoffgarin) March 28, 2024
Plenty of tweets about the Comstock Act recently.
Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito are clearly eager to revive the Comstock Act as a nationwide ban on medication abortion—and maybe procedural abortion, too. That would subject abortion providers in all 50 states to prosecution and imprisonment. No congressional action needed.
— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) March 26, 2024
Hiltzik walks us through the history of Comstock and it's every bit as embarrassing as you'd expect.
Re-upping my column about the Comstock Act, an antique law that Alito and Thomas seem to think will help them kill abortion rights: https://t.co/PoNTF9x2Xj
— Michael Hiltzik (@hiltzikm) March 27, 2024
Anti-obscenity crusader Anthony Comstock, lampooned in a 1915 periodical. The caption read: “Your Honor, this woman gave birth to a naked child.”
Waiting for the same people who argued that the Logan Act is a defunct law that has no meaning because it's never been enforced to make the compelling case for why the 1873 Comstock Act is alive and well and should be enforced broadly
— Asha Rangappa (@AshaRangappa_) March 26, 2024
Of course, it wouoldn't be a tweet post without a weasily framing from the NYT.
The NYT tells readers Hawley's attempt to ban abortion is part of "her longtime interest in limiting the power of the administrative state" & consistent with her belief "that a blue state had no right to impose its values and rules on Missouri’s farmers." https://t.co/Zi30SeZzb4
— Jamison Foser (@jamisonfoser) March 26, 2024
Democratic candidates however, are feeling no need to play nice.
Jessica and her family matter.
— Lucas Kunce (@LucasKunceMO) March 28, 2024
Josh Hawley has built his career on a control-obsessed crusade to outlaw reproductive healthcare. It's now a threat to IVF and to women in Missouri. We can't risk giving Hawley's crusade another six years in the U.S. Senate. pic.twitter.com/Flhme0p8jX
Democrats from Biden/Harris down to statehouse races are running hard on this issue, particularly since Alabama's recent IVF ruling.
Speaking of which...
A pro-choice Democrat just won a Trump-won district in Alabama by *30 POINTS* after Republicans in the state went after IVF.
— No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen (@NoLieWithBTC) March 27, 2024
Republicans have no idea what’s coming for them in November.
Given the way fundraising has been going, Democrats are on track to spend an extraordinary amount of money tying Republicans to national bans on abortion and IVF.
Fox: A Democrat running on abortion and IVF won the special election in Alabama. Marilyn Lands flipped a seat in the deep red state by 25 points. If you look our poll, the vast majority of voters think abortion should be legal pic.twitter.com/HcnaUuPqs5
— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) March 28, 2024
Here are some of the radical MAGA extremists Trump appointed to a *lifetime* on the federal bench: pic.twitter.com/MQE3g2Cb0p
— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) March 29, 2024
He’s bragging about it pic.twitter.com/XSQvC1VFge
— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) April 1, 2024
A functional political party, seeing it was being dragged down by positions this toxic would back away, push moderate candidates, and generally try to avoid scaring voters (which has become a concern for the GOP), but that's no longer an option under MAGA
(Here's the link.)https://t.co/BWjkcbhApC pic.twitter.com/wmIBKaaLMx
— Matthew Wollenweber (@MWollenweber) March 27, 2024
Marjorie Taylor Greene says says Mike Johnson, who supports a total abortion ban and restrictions on IVF, isn’t “Republican” enough pic.twitter.com/TcCfsCvYCp
— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) March 28, 2024
GOP Rep. Luna says Mike Johnson, who supports a total abortion ban and restrictions on IVF, isn’t “MAGA” enough pic.twitter.com/gHvWMdvfkR
— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) March 28, 2024
A functional party would avoid nominating guys like this.
Greg Lopez said as Governor he’d sign a statewide abortion ban. But he cared so little about the unborn that he was arrested for physically assaulting his pregnant wife.
— chris evans (@notcapnamerica) March 29, 2024
Now, Republicans have just nominated him to replace Rep. Ken Buck in CO-04 pic.twitter.com/0tgNeZQJWY
And then there's Florida.
I just want to see how much ketchup was thrown at the wall when Trump found out Desantis just took away women’s rights in FL for the 6 months leading up to the election, but when they show up to the polls in Nov they can get them back. Thanks, Desantis!
— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) April 1, 2024
HUGE BREAKING: The FL Supreme Court just announced that ballot initiatives on abortion and marijuana legalization will be on the ballot in Nov, providing a major boost to democratic candidates in the state. https://t.co/MxU4wh1LxF
— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) April 1, 2024
Today's decision effectively means that abortion is now illegal in Florida beyond six weeks, before most people know they're pregnant.
— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) April 1, 2024
BUT: The citizens of Florida will have a chance to enshrine permanent abortion protections via ballot initiative in November. https://t.co/VrYq1RitcT
Good luck selling that bullshit to the voters in a state that is overwhelmingly pro-choice & pro-weed legalization. You are going to get to meet a lot of new voters for the first time in Nov. pic.twitter.com/bdoKz7X87Z
— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) April 1, 2024
Just to be clear, this doesn't mean that any statewide office is seriously in play unless something much bigger happens, but there are a lot of races in Florida and a few flipped seats of its 28 representatives could easily decide control of the House.
This could actually be a game changer in Florida ginning up a significant amount of turnout. At minimum, it means Republicans are going to have to pour a lot more money into Florida than they expected. https://t.co/F5HJnqNJi3
— Norman Ornstein (@NormOrnstein) April 1, 2024
And as Ornstein points out, the question of resources might even be more important. Republicans have a huge disadvantage when it comes to money which is already showing up in swing state party organizations and GOTV operations. Now it looks like the GOP needs find some money places like Florida and Alabama.
Though we've never been in the prediction business, I could be persuaded to put my money on the "Dobbs will be a big deal" side of the bet,
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