Remember what we've been saying about range of data?
To the extent that political scientists understand the effect of money on elections, it's an understanding limited to the precedented (or at least its general neighborhood). That's how predictive modeling works, at least the kind of modeling we're talking about here. When you find yourself deep in the unprecedented, you can no longer assume that the relationships behind your model will still hold. [Blogger recognizes the spelling of "unprecedented" but not of "precedented." Go figure.]
With that in mind, think about 2024. In particular, think about the role money or the lack of it might play.
How much experience do we have with fund raising imbalances that look like this?
Nikki Haley, who's no longer running, reported more cash on hand at the end of February than the RNC. https://t.co/i9qfnnDpnm
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) March 21, 2024
Trump doesn't have enough money to target the actual swing states. Biden has enough to expand the playing field. It's that simple. https://t.co/yyW2iWjpjE
— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) March 22, 2024
How much experience do we have with candidates facing this level of financial crises?
"Five, ten, or even twenty-five dollars..."
Why are there no Republican multi-billionaires offering to lend President Trump the funds to file his appeal in the outrageous case in NY state? Are none of them liquid enough to help or join with others to help? This is an outrage.
— Mark R. Levin (@marklevinshow) March 18, 2024
Larry Kudlow personally asks Kevin O’Leary to loan Trump the $464 million bond he’ll need to appeal the New York civil fraud case, “in order to protect America’s name, think of it that way.”
— Eric Kleefeld (@EricKleefeld) March 19, 2024
O’Leary never answers that one, instead says the Supreme Court needs to intervene. pic.twitter.com/yV7kSNBUb3
And how often has a candidate's money problems had this kind of impact on their party?
New: Donald Trump’s new joint fundraising agreement with the RNC directs donations to his campaign and a political action committee that pays the former president’s legal bills before the RNC gets a cut: https://t.co/ii48SdvYX9
— Michelle L. Price (@michellelprice) March 21, 2024
"Adav Noti, the executive director of the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center in Washington, said that is a break from fundraising norms. Usually, Noti said, candidates prioritize raising cash that can be spent directly on campaign activity. Save America, on the other hand, is structured as a "leadership PAC" and thus barred from spending directly on Trump's own campaign activities. The group devoted 84% of its spending to Trump's legal costs as of February."
NEW: Trump’s legal slush fund PAC burned its donors’ money at the rate of more than $230,000 a *day* on legal expenses last month. Me w/@reesejgorman @thedailybeast https://t.co/45cluuqmcs
— Roger Sollenberger (@SollenbergerRC) March 21, 2024
'They are going to empty the coffers': GOP panics as Trump’s legal costs hurt fundraising https://t.co/WHKw8VGvVl
— Tea Pain (@TeaPainUSA) February 25, 2024
I never thought I'd be favorably quoting Scaramucci, but this aged well.
Trump is out of money which is why he is going hard at Ronna Romney so he can take over the RNC treasury.
— Anthony Scaramucci (@Scaramucci) February 15, 2024
Some folks down ballot are about to get a real life ‘trickle down economics’ experience.
— MichelleGoldenRetrieverMomma (@Michell39214369) March 21, 2024
p.s. And now this...
Huh, TikTok kingpin helping toss a few hundred million to papa Trump https://t.co/jh8lTbVq1L
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) March 23, 2024
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