Monday, April 3, 2023

A long shot you might want to keep an eye on

I've never voted for a Hutchinson and I probably never will, but I've never underestimated one either.

For around three decades now, the Hutchinsons have been the most powerful political family in Arkansas. I have never called any of them overly principled, but they do tend to be smart, none more so than Asa.

Hutchinson is in a sense doing the opposite of nearly every other prominent National Republican. While almost everyone else is embracing more and more toxic positions in an attempt to out Trump Tump, Hutchinson has for the past few years relied on his solid conservative bonafides to allow him to step back from these unpopular stands while keeping his support from the base. By the admittedly insane standards of 2023, while the rest of the competition has chained themselves to stances that poll in the mid thirties to high teens, he has done a remarkably good job of setting himself up as the reasonable and electable conservative.

Hutchinson is making a long shot bet here, but it's a smart one and he has been pursuing it with a high degree of skill and success. If the fever does break within the next 12 months and Republicans start thinking about the election in terms of viable candidates and broadly popular appeal, Hutchinson will be at or near the top of the list. The base will never forgive Mitt Romney and, barring black swans, the general electorate is highly unlikely to embrace the platform or elusive personal charms of Ron DeSantis, but Asa appears to have hit the sweet spot.

Politico has a recent piece on Hutchinson's old school Republican pitch. The policy sections are well reported. The political analysis is considerably weaker. It buys into the assumption made by pretty much all the candidates except Hutchinson that the GOP can somehow get rid of Trump without losing Trump voters. I've always been skeptical of the party's chances of pulling that one off.

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