His main hypothesis should be quite familiar to epidemiologists: that the increase is benefits is largely driven by cohort effects (due to the aging of a large demographic bulge in the United States population). Given how closely current payouts match 1996 projections, that isn't an unreasonable stance.
There are some small upticks recently, but these could be due to marginal workers in the face of a lengthy recession. Workers who would normally be border-line might prefer to work (given that working has a very positive halo on self-image in American culture) but lose their jobs due to the general economic downturn.
Is this a problem?
Well, only if you have a plan to employ 57-year olds with degenerative disk disease, or similar mobility restricting conditions. Otherwise, what really is the point of targeting this group at this time?
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