tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post5045076951643200614..comments2024-03-26T19:10:00.791-04:00Comments on West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more): The uncertainty paradoxJosephhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10760453165301871031noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-9118727705700303702012-08-06T22:09:39.251-04:002012-08-06T22:09:39.251-04:00Just to review, Hubbard is trying to make the foll...Just to review, Hubbard is trying to make the following argument:<br /><br />The possibility that Obama might return us to Clinton era policies and tax rates is causing sufficient uncertainty to greatly slow economic growth and the best way to alleviate this is to elect Romney. <br /><br />O'Brien and DeLong have done a good job dismantling the first part of the argument but I haven't heard that many people point out the hypocrisy of making this case while actively trying to add to that uncertainty.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14705408455380402571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-67355758136970850172012-08-06T19:29:35.899-04:002012-08-06T19:29:35.899-04:00At some point one has to presume that economies ha...At some point one has to presume that economies have grown under conditions of much greater uncertainty in the past (consider WW2, the Cold War, Victorian England). Perhaps we should be asking why people think our economy has grown so fragile?Josephhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10760453165301871031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-14352750863827513502012-08-06T08:20:36.767-04:002012-08-06T08:20:36.767-04:00"1.4% in 2011 alone," huh? This quote ..."1.4% in 2011 alone," huh? This quote sets off alarms for me in two ways:<br /><br />(1) The number just seems too damn big, it reeks of the sort of overcounting that is used to estimate the size of the economy controlled by the Mafia and other such iffy statistics.<br /><br />(2) The "in 2011 alone" bit has the sound of misleading rhetoric, implying that if you added up other years it would be more. But of course the number is a percentage, so adding in new years could increase or decrease it.Andrew Gelmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02715992780769751789noreply@blogger.com