tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post1757026131952347261..comments2024-03-26T19:10:00.791-04:00Comments on West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more): Model Decay, Causal Mechanisms and TownhallophobiaJosephhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10760453165301871031noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-59338979089137490812017-12-15T17:38:27.397-05:002017-12-15T17:38:27.397-05:00Andrew,
All of this makes perfect sense. A decade...Andrew,<br /><br />All of this makes perfect sense. A decades long shift in response to changing conditions and incentives. There are, however, a couple of aspects which, I believe, set what I'm talking about in the post apart.<br /><br />First, there's the abruptness and the magnitude of the change in the way the GOP is maintaining communication and personal connection with its constituents. Between the 2016 and 2018 elections, it now seems likely that Republican incumbents will have all but completely abandoned what had been the mainstays for building relationships with the people back home. Regardless of the consequences, this has got to be worth keeping an eye on.<br /><br />Second (and partly as a consequence of that abruptness and magnitude), this provides us with an excellent opportunity for thinking about the way we think about models. We already spend far too little time discussing the assumptions that go into our analyses; we certainly spend too little thinking about what happens when the basis for these assumptions changes.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14705408455380402571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-76679443766460463962017-12-14T15:04:25.865-05:002017-12-14T15:04:25.865-05:00Mark:
The research, such that I've seen, show...Mark:<br /><br />The research, such that I've seen, shows the incumbency advantage increasing from near-zero after WW2 to about 10 percentage points by the 1980s, with a gradual decline ever since. I've understood the decline to be due to increasing political polarization: party label is more important and the individual candidate is less important. There's also a positive feedback loop: if you're a legislator in a polarized environment, it's more important for you to please party leaders, donors, interest groups, and primary election voters than to make the voters happy. Hence you'll put less effort into constituency service and behavior that's responsive to public opinion. And this sort of behavior on politicians' part will reduce the incumbency advantage.Andrew Gelmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02715992780769751789noreply@blogger.com