Though not directly related to the IRS story, I have to mention that the "spend more time with his families" joke has gotten much more relevant recently

Remember a couple of weeks ago when everyone assured us that Musk was phasing out his role in government? (discussed here Is Elon stepping back to spend more time with his families?)

Not so much...

From the Guardian via LGM:

 
    Donald Trump is replacing the acting commissioner of the US Internal Revenue Service after treasury secretary Scott Bessent reportedly complained to the president that the agency head had been appointed without his knowledge and under the instruction of Doge leader Elon Musk.

    According to a report from the New York Times published on Friday, Bessent believed that the Doge head “had done an end-run around him” to get Gary Shapley installed as the interim head of the IRS, despite the fact that the IRS reports to Bessent. The report cited five anonymous sources with knowledge of the situation.

 ...

On social media, the conflict between Bessent and Musk was visible as Musk elevated a post from far-right conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer in which she accuses Bessent of collaborating with a “pro-impeachment and pro-censorship Trump hater”, referring to the businessman John Hope Bryant. Musk agreed with Loomer, calling the collaboration “troubling”, on X, the platform he owns.  

Here's a longer quote from Loomer on Bryant:

This DEI hire by Scott Bessent just wants to, you know, proclaim that Donald Trump should resign or that he should be impeached because he was fighting for election integrity and fighting against the stolen election of 2020. I thought that we were getting rid of DEI, and then we get to have these uppity Blacks just walk into the Trump administration and start making demands and acting like they run the Treasury department, and that they should have, like, an active role in the Trump administration while they sit around and try to undermine every initiative that Donald Trump has worked on.

Yes, she did just unironically use the U-word.

For a bit of context...

 While we can debate whether his influence is waxing or waning, Elon Musk clearly still exercises unprecedented power for someone in his position. Even as broadly and badly defined as his duties with DOGE are—picking the head of the IRS still manages to go well beyond them. In at least this one sense, Elon Musk’s role is larger than we realized.

Furthermore, he appears to be trying to entrench—or even expand—that power by taking out rivals within the administration. For anyone familiar with the history of Tesla or the company eventually known as PayPal, this is the exact opposite of surprising.

With the Cybertruck on its way to becoming perhaps the most disastrous vehicle launch in history, and with new stories of corruption involving him and the rest of the so-called PayPal Mafia continuing to break, he may have decided that the only way to maintain his fortune—which currently rests on a precariously overvalued Tesla and SpaceX—is to put himself in a position where he can divert billions upon billions of dollars of government money into his enterprises.

While it sometimes seems like the markets, instead of hating * uncertainty, have come around to seeing it as an excuse for optimism—as when they responded with a surge of enthusiasm to the indefinite and often contradictory claims about the tariff pause—at some point, investors are going to have to face reality and start pricing in the cost of palace intrigue, policy turmoil, and an increasingly dysfunctional government. The possibility of Musk forcing out the Treasury Secretary might not lead to the level of uncertainty you’d get from Trump firing Jerome Powell, but it’s still a reminder that, as incoherent and chaotic as our fiscal policies have been over the past few months, they can still get worse.

* I had ChatGPT proofread this and I didn't notice it had changed "hating" to "heeding" for some unfathomable reason. Always double check the LLM.

UPDATE: Eight hours after we posted "at some point, investors are going to have to face reality and start pricing in the cost of palace intrigue, policy turmoil, and an increasingly dysfunctional government."

And it makes parallel parking a breeze.

Don't get me wrong, I enjoy mocking stupid people as much as the next guy (and possibly a little bit more than that), but it takes its toll—particularly when the ineptitude is being applied to something I enjoy seeing done well.

When I want to remind myself how cool actual engineering can be, I often check out relevant videos from creators I trust on YouTube. That "trust" qualifier is important. As most of you know, the platform has become an absolute SEO cesspool. That's why I'm very careful about where I click—and even more careful about what I recommend on the blog.

This segment from Jeremy Fielding introduced me to a simple but truly elegant innovation. If you're not already familiar with it, you should check it out. It's cool as hell.


The Mecanum Wheel



If you enjoy this sort of thing, I also highly recommend Tom Scott and SmarterEveryday—especially the latter’s absolutely essential lecture on the issues with the Artemis moon mission.

For a narcissist with a messiah complex, this is actually pretty much on brand.

As someone who's been following the career of Elon Musk for a number of years, I found this kind of surprising with respect to how far things have gone—but by no means shocking. Between him inching closer to explicit eugenics and the general cult-leader vibe you get from quotes like “Some hate humanity, but I love humanity so much” and the repeated claims that he is saving America / Western civilization / the species itself (seriously, he talks like this all the time), how can you not at least halfway see something like this coming?

"Strauss and the war on data" was one of our most successful early posts but I would dearly love never to have another excuse to revisit it.

 NOAA 

From the NYT via LGM:

President Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to end nearly all of the climate research conducted by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), one of the country’s premier climate science agencies, according to an internal budget document seen by Science. The document indicates the White House is ready to ask Congress to eliminate NOAA’s climate research centers and cut hundreds of federal and academic climate scientists who track and study human-driven global warming.

The administration is also preparing to ask for deep cuts to NASA’s science programs, according to media reports today.

The proposed NOAA cuts—which could be altered before the administration sends its 2026 budget request to Congress in the coming weeks—would cut funding for the agency’s research arm, the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), to just over $171 million, a drop of $485 million. Any remaining research funding from previously authorized budgets would be moved to other programs. “At this funding level, OAR is eliminated as a line office,” the document states.

If approved by Congress, the plan would represent a huge blow to efforts to understand climate change, says Craig McLean, OAR’s longtime director who retired in 2022. “It wouldn’t just gut it. It would shut it down.” Scientifically, he adds, obliterating OAR would send the United States back to the 1950s—all because the Trump administration doesn’t like the answers to scientific questions NOAA has been studying for a half-century, according to McLean.

The administration’s plan would “eliminate all funding for climate, weather, and ocean laboratories and cooperative institutes,” says the document, which reflects discussions between NOAA and the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) about the agency’s 2026 budget request. Currently, NOAA operates 10 research labs around the country. They include influential ocean research centers in Florida and Washington state; five atmospheric science labs in Boulder, Colorado, and Maryland; and a severe storm lab in Oklahoma. It also operates the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in New Jersey, the birthplace of weather and climate modeling, as well as a lab in Michigan devoted to the Great Lakes. The agency further funds cooperative institutes, which support a large collection of academic scientists who work closely with the NOAA labs.

The proposal would cut NOAA’s competitive climate research grants program, which awards roughly $70 million a year to academic scientists. It would end support for collecting regional climate data and information, often used by farmers and other industries. And it would terminate the agency’s National Oceanographic Partnership Program and college and aquaculture sea grant programs, which support a host of research efforts.

NOAA officials still have time to persuade OMB to alter the request, but NOAA sources said it is unlikely to substantially change. But this proposal is only the first stage of the budget process; Congress will have the final word in setting NOAA’s spending.

It will certainly face strong opposition from Democrats. “Trump’s budget plan for NOAA is both outrageous and dangerous,” said Representative Zoe Lofgren (D–CA), the ranking member of the U.S. House of Representatives’s science committee, in a statement to Science. “This administration’s hostility towards research and rejection of climate science will have the consequence of eviscerating the weather forecasting capabilities that this plan claims to preserve.”

At NASA, science programs also face severe cuts, according to details first reported by Ars Technica. The White House is considering requesting a nearly 50% cut to NASA science’s office, down to an overall budget of $3.9 billion. According to Ars Technica, the plan calls for: “a two-thirds cut to astrophysics, down to $487 million; a greater than two-thirds cut to heliophysics, down to $455 million; a greater than 50 percent cut to Earth science, down to $1.033 billion; and a 30 percent cut to Planetary science, down to $1.929 billion.”

Such NASA cuts would require ending the operations of a huge host of earth science satellites. They could also result in the closure of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland, which has thousands of employees and is one of the agency’s premier centers for earth science research. The cuts would also end plans for Mars Sample Return, the DAVINCI mission to Venus, and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, which is almost fully assembled.

At NOAA, the agency’s budget would be cut by $1.7 billion, the OMB memo said. The proposal also seeks to cut the National Ocean Service in half, with “no funding for Integrated Ocean Observing System Regional Observations, Competitive Research, Coastal Zone Management Grants, National Coastal Resilience Fund, or the National Estuarine Research Reserve System.” The requests would also close the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science.

Other NOAA divisions would also be hit. OMB is seeking to radically rework the next-generation geostationary weather satellites planned by the agency’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). That includes cutting its planned atmospheric pollution and ocean color instruments because, as the document puts it, the satellites will deliver exclusively “weather” data. It could also cut the infrared sounder, which tracks changes in the vertical distribution of temperature and moistures, catching storms before they form, and a lightning mapper.

The request would also cut funding for the National Center for Environmental Information—the nation’s primary archive of climate data—by $18 million. And it trims mission support for NOAA’s satellites and data systems by $141 million, among many other proposals.

Though Republicans in the U.S. Congress have so far not shown much resistance to the administration, McLean expressed some hope that lawmakers will not approve these cuts, citing how much of NOAA spending is spread throughout their districts. But that’s not a sure thing, he says. “It’s a very different Congress today.” 

 

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Strauss and the war on data

The most important aspect of Randianism as currently practiced is the lies its adherents tell themselves. "When you're successful, it's because other people are inferior to you." "When you fail, it's because inferior people persecute you (call it going Roark)." "One of these days you're going to run away and everyone who's been mean to you will be sorry."

The most important aspect of Straussianism as currently practiced is the lies its adherents tell others. Having started from the assumption that traditional democracy can't work because most people aren't smart enough to handle the role of voter, the Straussians conclude that superior minds must, for the good of society, lie to and manipulate the masses.

Joseph and I have an ongoing argument about which school is worse, a question greatly complicated by the compatibility of the two systems and the overlap of believers and their tactics and objectives. Joseph generally argues that Rand is worse (without, of course, defending Strauss) while I generally take the opposite position.

This week brought news that I think bolsters my case (though I suspect Joseph could easily turn it around to support his): one of the logical consequences of assuming typical voters can't evaluate information on their own is that data sources that are recognized as reliable are a threat to society. They can't be spun and they encourage people to make their own decisions.

To coin a phrase, if the masses can't handle the truth and need instead to be fed a version crafted by the elite to keep the people happy and doing what's best for them, the public's access to accurate, objective information has to be tightly controlled. With that in mind, consider the following from Jared Bernstein:

[D]ue to pressure from Republicans, the Congressional Research Service is withdrawing a report that showed the lack of correlation between high end tax cuts and economic growth.

The study, by economist Tom Hungerford, is of high quality, and is one I’ve cited here at OTE. Its findings are fairly common in the economics literature and the concerns raised by that noted econometrician Mitch McConnell are trumped up and bogus. He and his colleagues don’t like the findings because they strike at the supply-side arguments that they hold so dear.

And with Sandy still on everyone's mind, here's something from Menzie Chinn:

NOAA's programs are in function 300, Natural Resources and Environment, along with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and a range of conservation and natural resources programs. In the near term, function 300 would be 14.6 percent lower in 2014 in the Ryan budget according to the Washington Post. It quotes David Kendall of The Third Way as warning about the potential impact on weather forecasting: "'Our weather forecasts would be only half as accurate for four to eight years until another polar satellite is launched,' estimates Kendall. 'For many people planning a weekend outdoors, they may have to wait until Thursday for a forecast as accurate as one they now get on Monday. … Perhaps most affected would be hurricane response. Governors and mayors would have to order evacuations for areas twice as large or wait twice as long for an accurate forecast.'"

There are also attempts from prominent conservatives to delegitimize objective data:

Apparently, Jack Welch, former chairman and CEO of General Electric, is accusing the Bureau of Labor Statistics of manipulating the jobs report to help President Obama. Others seem to be adding their voices to this slanderous lie. It is simply outrageous to make such a claim and echoes the worrying general distrust of facts that seems to have swept segments of our nation. The BLS employment report draws on two surveys, one (the establishment survey) of 141,000 businesses and government agencies and the other (the household survey) of 60,000 households. The household survey is done by the Census Bureau on behalf of BLS. It’s important to note that large single-month divergences between the employment numbers in these two surveys (like the divergence in September) are just not that rare. EPI’s Elise Gould has a great paper on the differences between these two surveys.

BLS is a highly professional agency with dozens of people involved in the tabulation and analysis of these data. The idea that the data are manipulated is just completely implausible. Moreover, the data trends reported are clearly in line with previous monthly reports and other economic indicators (such as GDP). The key result was the 114,000 increase in payroll employment from the establishment survey, which was right in line with what forecasters were expecting. This was a positive growth in jobs but roughly the amount to absorb a growing labor force and maintain a stable, not falling, unemployment rate. If someone wanted to help the president, they should have doubled the job growth the report showed. The household survey was much more positive, showing unemployment falling from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent. These numbers are more volatile month to month and it wouldn’t be surprising to see unemployment rise a bit next month. Nevertheless, there’s nothing implausible about the reported data. The household survey has shown greater job growth in the recovery than the establishment survey throughout the recovery. The labor force participation rate (the share of adults who are working or unemployed) increased to 63.6 percent, which is an improvement from the prior month but still below the 63.7 percent reported for July. All in all, there was nothing particularly strange about this month’s jobs reports—and certainly nothing to spur accusations of outright fraud.

We can also put many of the attacks against Nate Silver in this category.

Going back a few months, we had this from Businessweek:

The House Committee on Appropriations recently proposed cutting the Census budget to $878 million, $10 million below its current budget and $91 million less than the bureau’s request for the next fiscal year. Included in the committee number is a $20 million cut in funding for this year’s Economic Census, considered the foundation of U.S. economic statistics.

And Bruce Bartlett had a whole set of examples involving Newt Gingrich:

On Nov. 21, Newt Gingrich, who is leading the race for the Republican presidential nomination in some polls, attacked the Congressional Budget Office. In a speech in New Hampshire, Mr. Gingrich said the C.B.O. "is a reactionary socialist institution which does not believe in economic growth, does not believe in innovation and does not believe in data that it has not internally generated."

Mr. Gingrich's charge is complete nonsense. The former C.B.O. director Douglas Holtz-Eakin, now a Republican policy adviser, labeled the description "ludicrous." Most policy analysts from both sides of the aisle would say the C.B.O. is one of the very few analytical institutions left in government that one can trust implicitly.

It's precisely its deep reservoir of respect that makes Mr. Gingrich hate the C.B.O., because it has long stood in the way of allowing Republicans to make up numbers to justify whatever they feel like doing.

...

Mr. Gingrich has long had special ire for the C.B.O. because it has consistently thrown cold water on his pet health schemes, from which he enriched himself after being forced out as speaker of the House in 1998. In 2005, he wrote an op-ed article in The Washington Times berating the C.B.O., then under the direction of Mr. Holtz-Eakin, saying it had improperly scored some Gingrich-backed proposals. At a debate on Nov. 5, Mr. Gingrich said, "If you are serious about real health reform, you must abolish the Congressional Budget Office because it lies."
...                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Because Mr. Gingrich does know more than most politicians, the main obstacles to his grandiose schemes have always been Congress's professional staff members, many among the leading authorities anywhere in their areas of expertise.                                                                                                                                                                                                

To remove this obstacle, Mr. Gingrich did everything in his power to dismantle Congressional institutions that employed people with the knowledge, training and experience to know a harebrained idea when they saw it. When he became speaker in 1995, Mr. Gingrich moved quickly to slash the budgets and staff of the House committees, which employed thousands of professionals with long and deep institutional memories.

Of course, when party control in Congress changes, many of those employed by the previous majority party expect to lose their jobs. But the Democratic committee staff members that Mr. Gingrich fired in 1995 weren't replaced by Republicans. In essence, the positions were simply abolished, permanently crippling the committee system and depriving members of Congress of competent and informed advice on issues that they are responsible for overseeing.

Mr. Gingrich sold his committee-neutering as a money-saving measure. How could Congress cut the budgets of federal agencies if it wasn't willing to cut its own budget, he asked. In the heady days of the first Republican House since 1954, Mr. Gingrich pretty much got whatever he asked for.

In addition to decimating committee budgets, he also abolished two really useful Congressional agencies, the Office of Technology Assessment and the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations. The former brought high-level scientific expertise to bear on legislative issues and the latter gave state and local governments an important voice in Congressional deliberations.

The amount of money involved was trivial even in terms of Congress's budget. Mr. Gingrich's real purpose was to centralize power in the speaker's office, which was staffed with young right-wing zealots who followed his orders without question. Lacking the staff resources to challenge Mr. Gingrich, the committees could offer no resistance and his agenda was simply rubber-stamped.

Unfortunately, Gingrichism lives on. Republican Congressional leaders continually criticize every Congressional agency that stands in their way. In addition to the C.B.O., one often hears attacks on the Congressional Research Service, the Joint Committee on Taxation and the Government Accountability Office.

Lately, the G.A.O. has been the prime target. Appropriators are cutting its budget by $42 million, forcing furloughs and cutbacks in investigations that identify billions of dollars in savings yearly. So misguided is this effort that Senator Tom Coburn, Republican of Oklahoma and one of the most conservative members of Congress, came to the agency's defense.

In a report issued by his office on Nov. 16, Senator Coburn pointed out that the G.A.O.'s budget has been cut by 13 percent in real terms since 1992 and its work force reduced by 40 percent -- more than 2,000 people. By contrast, Congress's budget has risen at twice the rate of inflation and nearly doubled to $2.3 billion from $1.2 billion over the last decade.

Mr. Coburn's report is replete with examples of budget savings recommended by G.A.O. He estimated that cutting its budget would add $3.3 billion a year to government waste, fraud, abuse and inefficiency that will go unidentified.

For good measure, Mr. Coburn included a chapter in his report on how Congressional committees have fallen down in their responsibility to exercise oversight. The number of hearings has fallen sharply in both the House and Senate. Since the beginning of the Gingrich era, they have fallen almost in half, with the biggest decline coming in the 104th Congress (1995-96), his first as speaker.

In short, Mr. Gingrich's unprovoked attack on the C.B.O. is part of a pattern. He disdains the expertise of anyone other than himself and is willing to undercut any institution that stands in his way. Unfortunately, we are still living with the consequences of his foolish actions as speaker.

We could really use the Office of Technology Assessment at a time when Congress desperately needs scientific expertise on a variety of issues in involving health, energy, climate change, homeland security and many others. And given the enormous stress suffered by state and local governments as they are forced by Washington to do more with less, an organization like the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations would be invaluable.

 

Why, Robot?

 

[Early Optimus prototype]

When you factor in the pivotal role that Optimus plays in the weak bull case for Tesla, companies and divisions of companies developing bipedal humanoid robots primarily focused on the personal/household market are being valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars, despite a questionable use case and an even more questionable basic design.

As far as I can tell, with all the coverage of these businesses, virtually no one is questioning the assumptions that must be true in order to justify this level of investment. Keeping in mind that, at best, a fifth of U.S. households have robotic vacuum cleaners—and a substantial portion own dishwashers but don't even bother to use them—what share of households in the U.S., let alone the world, are going to shell out thousands, probably tens of thousands of dollars for a robot butler? Given their top-heavy, unstable design, highly inefficient locomotion (compared to wheeled alternatives), and their expense and complexity, why should the humanoid form become the standard, despite offering little to no significant gains in functionality?

And finally, when you get past the fantastic claims and staged—if not outright faked—video demonstrations, how likely is it that these things will pay off soon enough to justify the money being poured into them? 

There are some notable similarities between this hype bubble and what we've seen around AI and large language models, but with one key difference: while they may prove to be something of a dead end in the long term, LLMs are, for the moment, arguably the best tools we have for natural language processing. Bipedal humanoid robots aren't really the best at anything.

If you're presenting two interpretations of Musk and you literally label one of them the "real Elon," you may have revealed a slight bias

[Smith has a good post up on capital flight. Not in any way relevant to the topic here, but I wanted to say something nice.]

I read this more than a couple of times to make certain that Smith didn't have his tongue in his cheek. This level of credulity and straw-manning had to be a joke, right? Sadly, no. This is absolutely consistent with what Smith has written about Musk in the past—and since.

As we've pointed out before, Noah Smith represents a small but wealthy and highly influential group of thinkers: technocratic techno-optimists, largely centered around the Bay Area and distinguished by a tendency to worship billionaire visionaries like Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen. Needless to say, the levels of cognitive dissonance have grown deafening around these fellows over the past few months.

Smith represents a viewpoint that carries extraordinary weight in places like The New York Times—which is reason enough to look closely and critically at what he's been saying. In this case, he's also being profoundly dishonest. He grossly misrepresents the arguments* of most of Musk’s detractors while being highly selective with his examples.

It would take me far longer to list the pertinent cases that Smith omitted than it probably took Smith to write the original post, but just to illustrate the point, here’s what I found after a five-minute Google search on Elon Musk’s love of free speech.

Vice: X Purges Prominent Journalists, Leftists With No Explanation

NBC News: Elon Musk worries free speech advocates with his calls to prosecute researchers and critics 

The Guardian: Elon Musk has become the world’s biggest hypocrite on free speech

USA Today: When free speech champion Elon Musk threatens speech, we should take it seriously 

The Verge: Elon Musk is absolutely not a ‘free speech absolutist’

The examples that Smith does include are mostly supported by Musk’s own version of events. For example, Elon Musk insists that he loves Jewish people—but I’m pretty sure there have been examples in the past of antisemites using that very same defense. 

For more background, here's what you find if you follow Smith's link.

Elon Musk has publicly endorsed an antisemitic conspiracy theory popular among White supremacists: that Jewish communities push “hatred against Whites.”

That kind of overt thumbs up to an antisemitic post shocked even some of Musk’s critics, who have long called him out for using racist or otherwise bigoted dog whistles on Twitter, now known as X. It was the multibillionaire’s most explicit public statement yet endorsing anti-Jewish views.

ICYMI: Musk was responding to a post Wednesday that said Jewish communities “have been pushing the exact kind of dialectical hatred against whites that they claim to want people to stop using against them.” The post also referenced “hordes of minorities” flooding Western countries, a popular antisemitic conspiracy theory.

It’s the kind of post you can find easily on X these days, and likely would have gone unnoticed had Musk, with more than 160 million followers, not re-shared the post with the comment: “You have said the actual truth.”

The antisemitic conspiracy theory — which posits that Jews want to bring undocumented minority populations into Western countries to reduce White majorities in those nations — is often espoused by hate groups.

It’s the same conspiracy echoed in the final written words of Robert Bowers, the convicted murderer of 11 people at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh in 2018. His last social media post said that a Jewish nonprofit dedicated to aiding refugees “likes to bring invaders in that kill our people.” The mass shooting was the deadliest attack against Jews in American history.

Musk, in subsequent posts, expounded on his views. He wrote that he does not believe hatred of White people extends “to all Jewish communities.” But then he singled out the Anti-Defamation League, claiming that it promotes racism against White people.

 

 

 Noah Smith Dec 21, 2024

Musk’s friends and confidantes expect the former. They probably know him as a reasonable guy — a Reaganite conservative who was driven to the center-right by the excesses of wokeness, who loves free speech and free enterprise and small government and responsible fiscal and monetary policy and peace between nations, who wants to bring human civilization to Mars and accelerate tech progress and so on.

Let us call this version of Elon “Real Elon”.

But it’s possible to imagine another version of Elon, who exists in the perfervid imaginations of his detractors. Let us call this “Evil Elon”. Regular people, observing Elon’s actions in the public sphere, can’t always tell the difference between Real Elon and this fantasy supervillain.

Whereas Real Elon opposed the CR because of concerns over government spending and legislative complexity, Evil Elon opposed it because it contained national security provisions that would have nixed some of Tesla’s planned investments in China:

Cynics note that the shorter replacement CR, which Elon supported, would have actually spent more money than the CR that Elon killed — the main difference being that the replacement CR didn’t contain restrictions on U.S. investment in China:

In fact, while Real Elon loves capitalism and individual freedoms, Evil Elon is a consistent and dedicated ally of the Chinese Communist Party. When Real Elon calls for Taiwan to become a “special administrative zone” of China, he does it because he wants to avoid World War 3; Evil Elon does it because he likes authoritarian rule, and because the Chinese Communist Party has paid him off.

On Ukraine, similar, Real Elon just wants to end the conflict and stop more Ukrainians from dying. After all, Russia is powerful and determined enough that they’ll almost certainly be able to hold onto a piece of Ukraine at the end of the war; why not just trade land for peace and be done with it?

But Evil Elon wants Putin to triumph, because he sympathizes with authoritarian rulers in general. No one knows what Elon and Putin talked about during their frequent conversations since 2022. But believers in Evil Elon suspect that they conspired to bring about a Russian victory in the war.

When former U.S. Army officer Alex Vindman accused Elon of being used by Putin, Real Elon accused Vindman of treason and threatened him with “the appropriate penalty” because hey, we all get mad on social media and like to punch back at people who attack us. But Evil Elon did it because Vindman was on to something.

When Real Elon declared his support for the German far-right party AfD, it was because he saw Germany spinning into industrial decline and suffering from an immigration policy that failed to exclude violent criminals. But Evil Elon did it because he likes that AfD is vocally pro-Putin and pro-CCP.

In fact, believers in Evil Elon suspect that his support for AfD might also be due to the whiff of Nazi apologia and antisemitism that hang around some of the party’s candidates. Real Elon is a stand-up guy — when he agreed with a tweet about Jewish communities pushing anti-White hatred, he publicly apologized, declaring it the worst tweet he’s ever done, and declaring himself a “philosemite”. And when Real Elon accidentally endorsed a Tucker Carlson interview with a Hitler apologist, he quickly deleted the endorsement once he realized what it actually contained.

But believers in Evil Elon think that these are just the kind of public relations moves that a supervillain would do to cover his tracks. They fear that the massive wave of antisemitism that has swamped X since Elon took over is the result of intentional boosting, rather than simply the inevitable result of more lenient moderation policies combined with the reaction to the Gaza war.1 They do not buy Real Elon’s protests that other platforms have even more antisemitism. ["Musk did not say who performed the audit or share any details from the report. He did not answer any questions for other journalists." -- MP]

And so on. Essentially, Evil Elon is a somewhat cartoonish supervillain, who wants to set himself up as the ruler of one of three great dictatorships, ruling the world with an iron fist alongside his allies Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin — a new Metternich System to enshrine right-wing values and crack down on wokeness and progressivism and obstreperous minorities all over the world.

* While you can certainly find examples of all sorts of crazy anti-Elon theories in the more febrile corners of social media, most of Musk's mainstream critics (such as Linette Lopez, Edward Niedermeyer, Russ Mitchell, and former Tesla booster Fred Lambert) and detractors (like the well-researched channel Common Sense Skeptic) argue that Musk is an unethical businessman and profoundly unreliable narrator whose business depends on staying in the good graces of the CCP and who has increasingly fallen under the influence of the alt-right. I can't comment on the perfervidity of their imaginations (though those I've  chatted with have seemed quite reasonable and sober), but as you'll see from the CSS video, the have a remarkable amount of evidence backing their position.

Patrick Boyle is the ideal choice for explaining the business of Elon Musk

I've already referred this video in a previous post about Musk using his AI company to make himself whole after the Twitter fiasco, and I plan to come back to it when we get around to discussing the New York Times finally catching on to what some of us have been saying about the true value proposition of Tesla for years now. Squeezing one more post in might be overkill, but I really wanted to share a couple more quotes.

Another reason people might not be buying Teslas is that, with the rate at which parts are falling off Cybertrucks, there’s really no urgency to buy one. If you want one, you could just start collecting the parts from the side of the road. After about a year, you’d have enough to assemble your own. In many ways, the Cybertruck is like a reverse kid’s car — they deliver you a fully assembled truck, but over time, you end up with a collection of parts in boxes in your garage.

...

Now, of course, I'm no naysayer. Long-term viewers know how positive I've been about the Hyperloop at the heart of the Line City in Saudi Arabia, and if it wasn't for the functionality of Musk's Hyperloop, the whole thing would make no sense.

In a totally unrelated side note, Elon Musk told Fox News on Thursday that the administration is going to go after people pushing lies about Tesla.

So, just to be clear, I expect all of the abovementioned projects to be delivered next year on schedule, and I think that they'll be great.

Well worth your time.

Here's an example of Boyle's "positive" coverage of Neom and the hyperloop.

"Because it felt so good when they paused."

 When asked why he kept writing for television despite all the aggravations, Harlan Ellison would cite the story of the moron who liked being beaten in the stomach with a sawed-off baseball bat.

"Why did he like being beaten in the stomach with a sawed-off baseball bat?"

"Because it felt so good when they stopped."

Or even just paused, apparently.

The news probably doesn't justify the reaction of the markets bad at this point, not bad is good enough, showing the central importance of lowering expectations.

Josh Marshal predicted Trump would cave one week ago:

As a matter of political predictions, I don’t think this will be sustainable. We’re starting the fun with even the most die-hard Trump reps saying they sure hope it will be awesome through gritted teeth with beads of sweat already forming on their brows. We’re already seeing headlines that talk about the biggest trade regime revolution in a century, a new global age of trade restriction, etc. Again, I don’t think it’s sustainable. There are other new ages that we’re definitely already in. We’ve already wrecked the post-war Atlantic alliance and done irreparable damage to the post-war world order which rests upon it. But this is different. These tariffs could help usher in a new era of protectionism and break past economic and trading alliances. They certainly will push us further in a direction of a high-fear rather than high-trust global order. I’m simply saying that I don’t think these tariffs themselves will last. The pain will be too widely distributed, the ideological hold is too thin and the path to overturning them too clear. 

It is almost impossible to overstate how unpopular this policy was, particularly with one group that almost always has Trump's ear. Here was how things looked when the market closed Monday.

Here's where their fortunes stood at Monday's market close:

1. Elon Musk

Net worth: $298 billion

3-day change: down $35 billion

Year-to-date change: down $135 billion

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk Graeme Sloan for The Washington Post via Getty Images

Elon Musk's net worth has fluctuated wildly in recent months. Excitement about his proximity to the president has been replaced by concern, as anger has grown toward the White House's DOGE agency, and public backlash against Tesla has hammered the automaker's stock.

The world's richest person derives his wealth primarily from his stakes in Tesla and SpaceX. His other businesses include SpaceX, Neuralink, X, The Boring Company, and xAI.

Trump's second favorite real billionaire

7. Larry Ellison

Net worth: $147 billion

3-day change: down $21 billion

Year-to-date change: down $45 billion

Larry Ellison is Oracle's cofounder. Elizabeth Frantz/REUTERS

Larry Ellison is the cofounder, executive chairman, and chief technology officer of Oracle, one of the world's largest software and cloud computing companies.

Ellison is also a major investor in Tesla and owns a large portion of Lanai, a Hawaiian island.

Along with OpenAI's Sam Altman and SoftBank's Masayoshi Son, Ellison is spearheading Project Stargate, a $500 billion AI infrastructure initiative supported by Trump.

 And to add insult to injury...

4. Warren Buffett

Net worth: $154 billion

3-day change: down $14 billion

Year-to-date change: up $12 billion

Warren Buffett is the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Reuters/Mario Anzuoni

Warren Buffett, 94, is the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. His conglomerate owns scores of businesses including Geico and See's Candies, and holds multibillion-dollar stakes in public companies such as Apple and American Express.

The legendary investor's track record of capitalizing on market crashes, and his company's scale and diversification, have made Berkshire a haven for investors who've pushed its stock up 8% this year.

 

"The Problems With Humanoid Robots"

Humanoid robots are certainly having their day. We are seeing a flood of articles and think pieces discussing how these mechanical men are about to change our lives any day now. What’s much harder to find are serious discussions about whether making a robot look like a human makes any sense.

This post by Brad Porter, someone with considerable experience making robots that actually do things, is a good start.

There are three specific problems with humanoid robots. One first I believe will be overcome with continued advances in AI. The second might be overcome with enough investor dollars. The third is the Achilles heel.

1. The AI isn’t there yet. We lack the generalized controls necessary for robust balancing systems to work in production environments.
2. Hardware investments when the AI isn’t there are bad investments. The dollars required to bring a humanoid robot to production quality are likely to be well over $1B invested.
3. Biomimicry isn’t the right approach. Humanoid robots aren’t the right design solution for most production tasks.

Stephen Boyd, one of the true luminaries in the space of controls research and engineering gave an interesting talk. In fairness to Dr. Boyd, I’ll summarize my take-aways which may be different than what he hoped to convey. But overall the talk compared a number of controls techniques, including reinforcement learning, and articulated clearly how they could be reduced to problems of convex optimization, greatly simplifying the problem space. But then he said something interesting (paraphrasing, but hoping I got this right), “so just get the dimensionality under 6 and these problems become classically solvable.”

That was a big a-ha for me. This is exactly what we do in robotics. We reduce the dimensionality of the problem down below 6 degrees of control actuation and we derive a controller using some combination of math, convex optimization, RL or equivalent techniques. Quad-copter drones are 4 degrees of actuation and generally an IMU. Cars are throttle, brake, steer. Airplanes are generally aileron, rudder, elevator, throttle. What Agility has done beautifully is simplify the physics of walking such that the controller can be modeled as a spring-mass system. What Boston Dynamics has done, impressively, is demonstrated the ability to transition from one control regime to another seamlessly, but each controller is simplified. Successful hand controllers in production have reduced the dimensionality with eigenhands, or lower-dimensional controls spaces.

 ...

As I said up front, I think advances in ML/AI will address this problem. We will eventually get more robust robotics controllers, but there’s a reasonable argument that this problem is as hard, or maybe even harder given the open-ended nature of the world, as developing a self-driving car. For instance, self-driving cars are passively stable. They don’t care if they’re transporting liquids or solids, mass sloshing doesn’t affect them. But if a humanoid robot is carrying a box with a bowling ball in it, the controls problem just got very very hard. Humans stabilize our bodies with a lot of different muscles, including our neck muscles which subtly refine the position of our head to keep our center of mass above our feet. That’s super hard to do! And look, we still can’t put a timeline on robust AI for self-driving cars.

 

This brings us to our second problem. Hardware is expensive. And complex hardware is really expensive. Combining complex hardware engineering costs with open-ended, unsolved AI problems, means the funding requirements are open-ended. And it’s not like you can do some work with a humanoid without solving the balancing problem. I suppose some humanoids are just using a wheeled base, but they’re not intrinsically stable… their center of mass is still too high to be safe.

Is there enough money in the venture ecosystem to make a dent in this? Probably, though Softbank has some of the deepest pockets and thrown a lot of money at robots. Google as well. The returns for those investments to date are more than a little disappointing.

But the biggest problem is that humanoids are the wrong solution for most tasks. Not all tasks, I do think Disney’s animatronic actors will become more and more sophisticated and impressive. In Toyko, there’s a hotel where animatronic dinosaurs check you in. An animatronic human might be a little friendlier than a dinosaur. But when it comes to doing real work in the world around us, biomimicry isn’t the answer.

...

Wheels are the right answer in logistics, in manufacturing, in hospitals, in airports, in stadiums, on the sidewalk, in office complexes, and in nearly every commercial environment. Also, passive stability, having at least 3 points of contact on the ground, preferably 4, is extremely valuable. Keeping the payload inside the cone of stability rather than cantilevered in front of a robot is better as well.

Sure, the whole humanoid robot thing is a scam, but at least Musk puts some effort into it.

This just lazy.

First some background.

Synapse claimed to keep customer deposits in FDIC insured bank accounts, and argued that this provided a comparable level of depositor protection to conventional bank accounts. However Synapse was not a bank, and so did not provide FDIC protection for depositors against its own bankruptcy.

The company was backed by Andreessen Horowitz [we'll be coming back to this in a future post (spoiler alert: Marc Andreessen is an arrogant, entitled idiot) -- MP] and had roughly 100 direct business relationships, indirectly serving 10 million retail customers through those relationships.

Following the bankruptcy declaration, "tens of thousands of U.S. businesses and consumers" lost access to Synapse's services, leaving questions as to the location of funds. In May 2024, former FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams, appointed as bankruptcy trustee, said there was a “shortfall” between Synapse’s records and those of the banks, estimated at $65 million to $96 million.

The CEO of Yotta Savings – a fintech company which relied on Synapse to manage customer deposits – released financial data in November 2024 showing that 13,725 former customers lost deposited money due to the Synapse bankruptcy. They were refunded $11.8 million, a fraction of their $64.9 million deposits. 

How do you follow up destroying the life savings of your customers? We'll let Patrick Boyle tell the next part of the story. [ChatGPT proofed from the transcript.]

In plain English—Synapse, which built the technology to know whose money is whose, has run out of money and no longer has any employees who can figure it out.

Well, where have they all gone? Sankaet Pathak, the founder and CEO of Synapse, announced in August that he had raised $11 million in VC funding for a new robotics startup called Foundation. In his Twitter video, he said that he had been working on the startup for three months—basically since the bankruptcy announcement—and his goal is to automate GDP through AI and robotics to free people from labor jobs, allowing them to pursue their passions.

He explains that declining birth rates will lead to severe labor shortages in 20–30 years, risking civilizational collapse, making this mission urgent. So yeah, I get that some people are worried about having lost their life savings—but Sankaet is battling civilizational collapse through AI robots… a noble cause indeed.

His near-term goal, he says, is to have a walking humanoid robot by year-end—that will be quite a breakthrough. If he needs one quickly, I’d buy that Honda one that was running around and kicking a football ten years ago.

It's a sign of the times. This guy drives his company into the ground then immediately gets investors to give him millions of dollars for an obviously thrown together knock-off of an Elon scheme that was itself a transparent con. 

 

The "we'll be okay as long as Elon is in charge" take has aged badly.

We're going to be picking on Noah Smith a lot, and I feel genuinely bad about it. These are not crocodile tears. It seems profoundly unfair to go after someone not because they are stupid or despicable, but because they are the smartest, most articulate person advocating an important school of thought.

Smith speaks for an influential group that is generally Bay Area-centered, mainstream center-left, technocratic techno-optimists. Marc Andreessen is arguably their intellectual leader, though few of them share, and in some cases even acknowledge, the extreme libertarianism at the core of his ideas. They are also decidedly prone to hero worship.

This group is small in terms of absolute numbers, but it includes lots of billionaires and it has a wildly disproportionate impact on the discourse through journalists like Ezra Klein. To make matters worse, the group tends to get something of a free pass from the press at large. All of this makes the need for genuinely critical scrutiny all the more pressing.

From Why America's future could hinge on Elon Musk -- Iron Man, or Dr. Doom? *
by Noah Smith
Oct 26, 2024

In recent months, a number of progressive commentators have suggested that Musk’s support for Donald Trump is part of a campaign to become a “Shadow President”. Many people I talk to in the tech industry also believe this — but they think of it as a good thing. Many of them, even the conservatives, despise Donald Trump as a human being, but they hope that with Trump aging and fading, Musk and J.D. Vance will be running the show in a competent technocratic manner. Put a superhero in charge, the thinking goes, and you get super-results — just as happened with SpaceX and Tesla.

 Apologies to longtime readers who have heard this before, but we need a quick reality check here. SpaceX has achieved some highly impressive, albeit largely incremental, advances with former TRW rocket scientists building off TRW technology. Outside of making some admittedly very good hires, Elon Musk's contribution to this consisted almost entirely of hyping the company and bringing in extraordinary amounts of funding for an operation that was, and probably still is, hemorrhaging cash. 

Tesla is a niche automaker that, for a while, managed to dominate a small corner of the market while turning a small profit, due primarily to government subsidies. Musk's most notable accomplishment with that company was an extraordinary and unprecedented stock pump, keeping the P/E ratio well over 100 even after the company started shrinking.

But even if we were to accept the myth of SpaceX and Tesla, why would we expect Musk to have any special powers when it came to running the government? His only relevant experience with the institution has been getting it to give him large amounts of taxpayer dollars. The answer is because Smith and the rest of this group believe Musk is omnicompetent, that he's a secret genius, and a founding lord of Ithuvania. 

These myths of supermen among us were incredibly popular for most of this century, but it's time we acknowledged how costly they could be. 

 

 

 *We'll be coming back to this one.

Is Elon stepping back to spend more time with his families?

Probably not, and even if he does, certainly not for the reasons being given.

This is a perfect Politico story, providing juicy insider details to make readers feel that they're getting the straight dope while downplaying aspects that will embarrass her sources.

Trump Tells Inner Circle That Musk Will Leave Soon by Rachael Bode

 President Donald Trump has told his inner circle, including members of his Cabinet, that Elon Musk will be stepping back in the coming weeks from his current role as governing partner, ubiquitous cheerleader and Washington hatchet man.

The president remains pleased with Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency initiative but both men have decided in recent days that it will soon be time for Musk to return to his businesses and take on a supporting role, according to three Trump insiders who were granted anonymity to describe the evolving relationship.

...

Musk’s defenders inside the administration believe that the time will soon be right for a transition, given their view that there’s only so much more he can cut from government agencies without shaving too close to the bone.

...

Both men subsequently hinted publicly at a transition. When Fox News’ Bret Baier asked Musk on Thursday whether he’d be ready to leave when his special government employee status expires, he essentially declared mission accomplished: “I think we will have accomplished most of the work required to reduce the deficit by $1 trillion within that time frame.”

Marshall is calling bullshit on both the idea that Musk is ready to go or that anyone thinks DOGE has reached a stopping point.

Thirdly, Elon Musk is now in the position of every dictator whose already killed too many people. They have to hold on to power because giving it up is too dangerous. Will the Justice Department stop wielding national police power to defend Tesla’s market cap? Unlikely. And without Elon’s presence and the fear he inspires, more facts about the crimes and the consequences of his wilding spree will dribble out. DOGE has always run on fear and Musk inspires the fear. Will people decide that they can go back to maybe buying a Tesla? I doubt it, because of items one and two and item three as well.

Fourthly and lastly, there’s far too much damage and blood on the ground for Elon to step aside. Would anyone have cared if bin Laden had decided to “step back” in November 2001 and focus on his other terror affiliates? Unlikely. What had happened had happened. There was no going back. This is all the more the case now because the details of what has already happened, the consequences and pain for ordinary Americans. The laws broken, the money squandered, the national assets plundered are only now beginning to become clear. That won’t stop. And as we saw in Wisconsin, Musk cannot help but put himself front and center even when it’s objectively crazy to do so. That’s who he is and no one ceases to be who they are.

Before we get into the question of what Elon Musk is likely to do, a few notes on the Politico piece.

For starters, the piece acknowledges an elephant in the room but possibly not the biggest one. Obviously, the timing of all these Elon’s leaving stories has everything to do with the events of Tuesday night. The Politico piece discusses the Wisconsin half of those events, but it leaves out perhaps the more frightening Trump and the GOP.

The Republicans held on to the two seats up in Florida—any other outcome would have been politically cataclysmic—but the numbers were really bad in context. In Florida's 6th District, the Republicans saw almost a 10% drop in support in a district that has been Republican for the last 35 years. In the Deep Red Panhandle’s First District, they saw a similar drop, giving them their worst percentages of the 21st century.

Yes, n=2, but those two  elections took place in the context of a lot of other data points that generally told the same story, and keep in mind, that was before "liberation day" and the resulting carnage in the markets. Every member of the House GOP who won their last election by less than 10% is taking a long hard look at these results and at the parts of the administration that are dragging them down.

Elon has turned out to be a huge political liability and Trump would certainly be willing to toss him overboard. The question is would he go?

Musk is a narcissist/bully with a messiah complex. He's clearly enjoying himself, so this is not a gig that he would be eager to leave, even without the opportunities for self-enrichment. That said, there are some powerful incentives for him to go.

One aspect that both Bode and Marshall don’t seem to fully factor in is just how precarious the situation with Musk’s finances has become.

Tesla is one of the all-time great examples of the principle that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid, but eventually all bubbles pop, and the news for this company has been brutal over the past few months. In addition to the self-inflicted doge wounds, the second generation of products has performed really badly. Sales were flat or trending down even before Musk hooked up with Trump, and competitors, particularly BYD, are absolutely kicking their ass.

Despite all of this, Tesla is still valued for explosive growth. With these prices, even if profits increase by a thousand percent over the next five or so years, investors have basically just broken even. Even under normal circumstances, it takes a great deal of pumping to keep a stock that high. When the company appears to be shrinking rather than growing, that level of hype becomes almost superhuman.

On top of that, if Musk is still reluctant to step away, Trump has tremendous leverage he can apply. The profitability of Tesla depends on regulatory credits. With SpaceX, the situation is even more dire, particularly given the difficulty of justifying the Artemis program while cutting far more popular government programs to the bone. If Elon were to make him mad enough, Trump could completely destroy his financial empire, ironically in the name of government efficiency.

But here's where it gets really interesting. Very much like his co-president, Elon Musk is an angry and vindictive man given to lashing out in self-destructive ways when he feels he's been made a victim. The CEO of an ad-supported company publicly telling advertisers to go f*** themselves is possibly the stupidest thing you'll ever see, but it was entirely on brand. Musk also has a history of mounting coups against partners, often in the most gratuitously vindictive and petty way possible. The way he forced out the actual founders of Tesla is a perfect example.

With all that in mind, remember that JD Vance is Peter Thiel's, and by extension, Elon Musk's, man in the White House.

Normally, conversations about the 25th Amendment are rightly treated as non-starters, but these are far from normal times. Given the circumstances and the personalities involved, Elon Musk and the rest of the tech billionaire wing of the Republican Party would almost certainly at least think about forcing Trump out should he become sufficiently inconvenient.

As the old curse goes, may you live in interesting times.