Wednesday, September 20, 2023

The plan to briefly release the jinn from the bottle then ask him to go right back in without causing any trouble may have a subtle flaw.*

Sophia Bollag writing for the Chronicle:

SACRAMENTO — California on Thursday became the first state to officially call for a convention to add a gun control amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

California lawmakers called for the convention through a resolution that advocates for adding an amendment to raise the age to buy a gun in the U.S. to 21, mandate background checks for firearms buyers, impose a waiting period for gun purchases and ban assault weapons nationwide. Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed calling for a constitutional convention on gun control in June, and worked with lawmakers to pass it through the Legislature.

Such a convention could be triggered if two-thirds of state legislatures call for one. It would be the first constitutional convention since the Constitution was adopted in 1789.

Some liberals have criticized Newsom’s plan over concern it could open the Constitution to amendments from conservatives on other issues such as abortion and LGBTQ rights. Newsom said he’s heard those concerns, but that he disagrees and believes gun control is too important not to push for a convention.

The resolution calls for a convention that would be limited to consideration of an amendment to regulate guns.

I'm sure nothing could go wrong. 

The good news is that this appears to be one of Newsom's flashy and purely symbolic attempts at building his personal brand (promising some future governor will ban gas cars) rather than one of Newsom's reckless and dangerous attempts at building his personal brand (handing out stimulus checks for inflation relief, marrying Kimberly Guilfoyle).

 

What I'm more afraid of is the idea of replacing the first woman of color to serve as vice-president with this empty suit.

 *Aarne–Thompson–Uther Index type 331

 

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Straussianism before Strauss

Or at least part of it. 

Joseph is always a annoyed when I bring up Strauss, usually commenting that I use the name of a speific movement when I'm really talking about a larger set of ideas that have been around at least since Socrates and Plato. 

Joseph knows far more about history than I do, which may be why I am so frequently surprised by bits of information that strike him as common knowledge. This passage fromhad  Arthur M. Schlesinger's the Age of Jackson might be an example. For lots of people reading this, Schlesinger's comments might be familiar territory, but I had no idea this aspect of American conservatism went back that long.


 

Monday, September 18, 2023

Avi Loeb has done cutting edge work in the fields of theoretical cosmology and motivated reasoning

The failure of the press to keep its wits during the recent reemergence of UFO mania has come down in no small part in its inability to think clearly about credentials, be it government official, decorated pilot, NYT reporter, or Harvard astrophysicist. 

Avi Loeb has the kind of resume that really screws with journalists, highly impressive, but when you think about it, not quite as relevant as it first seems. On one level, he is a legitimately major player, responsible for seminal work, so when he claims to have convincing evidence that we've directly observed alien technology, you can can understand why reporters felt safe running credulously with the big, fun story. But the coverage often downplayed just how far out of the mainstream Loeb is on this subject, and almost completely omitted the fact that he wasn't an expert in the fields of astronomy and astrophysics that were relevant here.

Jason Thomas Wright, a professor in the Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics at Pennsylvania State University, and director of the Penn State Extraterrestrial Intelligence Center, has taken a lead role in trying to tamp down the hype. He previously co-authored the excellent "Oumuamua: Natural or Artificial?" He has updated that with a blog post which is considerably more blunt and reflects the community's waning patience with Loeb.

From "Avi and Oumuamua: Setting the Record Straight"

Loeb, you might know, recently rose to public prominence with his claims that the first discovered interstellar comet, ‘Oumuamua, is actually a piece of an alien spacecraft passing through the Solar System.  Since then he has headlined UFO conventions, written a very popular book about his claim, and raised millions of dollars to study UFOs with his “Galileo Project” initiative. His latest venture with that money is to sweep a metal detector across the Pacific to find fragments of what he claims is another interstellar visitor that the US military detected crashing into the ocean, resulting in the headline “Why a Harvard professor thinks he may have found fragments of an alien spacecraft” in the Independent.  

...

But his shenanigans have lately strongly changed the astronomy community’s perceptions of him. His recent claims about alien spacecraft and comets and asteroids largely come across to experts as, at best, terribly naive, and often as simply erroneous (Loeb has no formal training or previous track record to speak of in planetary science, which has little in common with the plasma physics he is known for). His promotion of his claims in the media is particularly galling to professionals who discover and study comets, who were very excited about the discovery of ‘Oumuamua but have found their careful work dismissed and ridiculed by Loeb, who is the most visible scientist discussing it in the media.

Most recently, his claims to have discovered possible fragments of an alien ship in the Pacific  have been criticized by meteoriticists at a recent conference. Loeb claims the metallic spherules he found trawling the ocean floor are from the impact site of an interstellar object (dubbed 20140108 CNEOS/USG) but they point out that they are much more likely to have come from ordinary meteorites or even terrestrial volcanoes or human activities like coal burning ships or WWII warfare in the area. And, they argue, 20140108 most likely did not come from outside the Solar System at all. (It also appears that Loeb may have violated legal and ethical norms by removing material from Papua New Guinean waters—you’re not supposed to just go into other countries and collect things without permission.) 

Also frustrating is how Loeb’s book and media interviews paint him as a heroic, transformational figure in science, while career-long experts in the fields he is opining on are characterized as obstinate and short-sighted. His Galileo Project has that name because it is “daring to look through new telescopes.” In his book claiming ‘Oumuamua is an alien spacecraft, he unironically compares himself to the father of telescopic astronomy, Galileo himself. The community was aghast when he blew up at Jill Tarter, a well-respected giant in the field of SETI and one of the best known women in science in the world. (When Tarter expressed annoyance at his dismissal of others’ work in SETI, he angrily accused her of “opposing” him, and of not doing enough for SETI, as if anyone had done more! Loeb later apologized to Tarter and his colleagues, calling his actions “inappropriate”).  

...

So it is against all of this background that, even when asked, I have generally stayed quiet lately when it comes to Loeb, or tried to give a balanced and nuanced perspective. I do appreciate that he is moving the scientific “Overton Window”, making SETI, which used to (unfairly) seem like an outlandish corner of science, seem practically mainstream by comparison. I appreciate the support he’s given to my work in SETI, and I generally discourage too much public or indiscriminate criticism of him lest the rest of the field suffer “splash damage.”

I have noticed, however, that Loeb’s work and behavior have been seen as so outrageous in many quarters that it essentially goes unrebutted in popular fora by those who are in the best position to explain what, exactly, is wrong about it. This leaves a vacuum, where the public hears only Loeb’s persuasive and articulate voice, with no obvious public pushback from experts beyond exasperated eye-rolling that feeds right into his hero narrative. 


 

Friday, September 15, 2023

You probably know most of this, but I bet you didn't know...

 Given the readership of the blog, most of you already know about the various scandals of Dan Ariely. You possibly even know that his book Predictably Irrational is being loosely adapted for a new TV series.

 But where did they get the idea for a crime thriller based on a celebrity psychologist? I can prove this relationship but given the way TV executives' mind work, I'll bet they were at least partially inspired by the long run of the show Bull, which at its peak was pulling in a respectable 15 million viewers. The show was, believe it or not, inspired (again, I suspect, loosely) by the early career of Dr. Phil McGraw.

You knew there had to be a connection between Dan and Dr. Phil.

Thursday, September 14, 2023

Tweets -- "Actual demonstration of his fitness is used to raise questions about his fitness."

When in doubt, read Michael Hiltzik.

How the media’s obsession with Biden’s age could help reelect Trump 

President Biden on Monday completed a five-day trip to the Far East that included a summit meeting in New Delhi with leaders of the G-20 conference of developed countries at which a major international infrastructure project for India was announced, followed by a one-day visit to Vietnam, where he solidified relations with that country as a bulwark against China.

You might not be aware of this burst of presidential energy if you’re a reader of the news website Axios. On Saturday, while Biden’s journey was in full swing, the site’s gloss on Biden’s activities was this:

“Joe Biden and Donald Trump are running dueling basement campaigns that make them look like they’re in the witness protection program.”

With a few exceptions (like Hiltzik and those listed below), when journalists latch onto a nice safe narrative, they will do whatever it takes to keep it going, including ignoring or distorting facts.

 



I have a lot of respect for Silver, but he does have a way of making an ass of himself.



Between Ukraine, NATO, South Korea/Japan, and Vietnam, I'm coming around to the opinion that Biden is the best foreign policy president in the past fifty years. (And, yes, if you want to leave a comment about Afghanistan, I'd be glad to respond.)


"You get paid to do it."


Eight years ago, the press picked endlessly at Hillary. Four years ago they did the same to Warren. Now it's Harris. 

I get the feeling that there's some common factor here, but I can't quite put my finger on it.





The Archive is one of the best things to come out of the age of the internet. Their lending library is a fantastic resource. I am never giving Hachette any more of my business. I recommend you do the same.


As we may have mentioned before, it's the secondary and the tertiary effects of Dobbs that you need to keep an eye on.






Sane Vampires.

Tech News


Based on the headline, this is not at all where I expected this story to go.