Wednesday, September 20, 2023

The plan to briefly release the jinn from the bottle then ask him to go right back in without causing any trouble may have a subtle flaw.*

Sophia Bollag writing for the Chronicle:

SACRAMENTO — California on Thursday became the first state to officially call for a convention to add a gun control amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

California lawmakers called for the convention through a resolution that advocates for adding an amendment to raise the age to buy a gun in the U.S. to 21, mandate background checks for firearms buyers, impose a waiting period for gun purchases and ban assault weapons nationwide. Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed calling for a constitutional convention on gun control in June, and worked with lawmakers to pass it through the Legislature.

Such a convention could be triggered if two-thirds of state legislatures call for one. It would be the first constitutional convention since the Constitution was adopted in 1789.

Some liberals have criticized Newsom’s plan over concern it could open the Constitution to amendments from conservatives on other issues such as abortion and LGBTQ rights. Newsom said he’s heard those concerns, but that he disagrees and believes gun control is too important not to push for a convention.

The resolution calls for a convention that would be limited to consideration of an amendment to regulate guns.

I'm sure nothing could go wrong. 

The good news is that this appears to be one of Newsom's flashy and purely symbolic attempts at building his personal brand (promising some future governor will ban gas cars) rather than one of Newsom's reckless and dangerous attempts at building his personal brand (handing out stimulus checks for inflation relief, marrying Kimberly Guilfoyle).

 

What I'm more afraid of is the idea of replacing the first woman of color to serve as vice-president with this empty suit.

 *Aarne–Thompson–Uther Index type 331

 

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Straussianism before Strauss

Or at least part of it. 

Joseph is always a annoyed when I bring up Strauss, usually commenting that I use the name of a speific movement when I'm really talking about a larger set of ideas that have been around at least since Socrates and Plato. 

Joseph knows far more about history than I do, which may be why I am so frequently surprised by bits of information that strike him as common knowledge. This passage fromhad  Arthur M. Schlesinger's the Age of Jackson might be an example. For lots of people reading this, Schlesinger's comments might be familiar territory, but I had no idea this aspect of American conservatism went back that long.


 

Monday, September 18, 2023

Avi Loeb has done cutting edge work in the fields of theoretical cosmology and motivated reasoning

The failure of the press to keep its wits during the recent reemergence of UFO mania has come down in no small part in its inability to think clearly about credentials, be it government official, decorated pilot, NYT reporter, or Harvard astrophysicist. 

Avi Loeb has the kind of resume that really screws with journalists, highly impressive, but when you think about it, not quite as relevant as it first seems. On one level, he is a legitimately major player, responsible for seminal work, so when he claims to have convincing evidence that we've directly observed alien technology, you can can understand why reporters felt safe running credulously with the big, fun story. But the coverage often downplayed just how far out of the mainstream Loeb is on this subject, and almost completely omitted the fact that he wasn't an expert in the fields of astronomy and astrophysics that were relevant here.

Jason Thomas Wright, a professor in the Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics at Pennsylvania State University, and director of the Penn State Extraterrestrial Intelligence Center, has taken a lead role in trying to tamp down the hype. He previously co-authored the excellent "Oumuamua: Natural or Artificial?" He has updated that with a blog post which is considerably more blunt and reflects the community's waning patience with Loeb.

From "Avi and Oumuamua: Setting the Record Straight"

Loeb, you might know, recently rose to public prominence with his claims that the first discovered interstellar comet, ‘Oumuamua, is actually a piece of an alien spacecraft passing through the Solar System.  Since then he has headlined UFO conventions, written a very popular book about his claim, and raised millions of dollars to study UFOs with his “Galileo Project” initiative. His latest venture with that money is to sweep a metal detector across the Pacific to find fragments of what he claims is another interstellar visitor that the US military detected crashing into the ocean, resulting in the headline “Why a Harvard professor thinks he may have found fragments of an alien spacecraft” in the Independent.  

...

But his shenanigans have lately strongly changed the astronomy community’s perceptions of him. His recent claims about alien spacecraft and comets and asteroids largely come across to experts as, at best, terribly naive, and often as simply erroneous (Loeb has no formal training or previous track record to speak of in planetary science, which has little in common with the plasma physics he is known for). His promotion of his claims in the media is particularly galling to professionals who discover and study comets, who were very excited about the discovery of ‘Oumuamua but have found their careful work dismissed and ridiculed by Loeb, who is the most visible scientist discussing it in the media.

Most recently, his claims to have discovered possible fragments of an alien ship in the Pacific  have been criticized by meteoriticists at a recent conference. Loeb claims the metallic spherules he found trawling the ocean floor are from the impact site of an interstellar object (dubbed 20140108 CNEOS/USG) but they point out that they are much more likely to have come from ordinary meteorites or even terrestrial volcanoes or human activities like coal burning ships or WWII warfare in the area. And, they argue, 20140108 most likely did not come from outside the Solar System at all. (It also appears that Loeb may have violated legal and ethical norms by removing material from Papua New Guinean waters—you’re not supposed to just go into other countries and collect things without permission.) 

Also frustrating is how Loeb’s book and media interviews paint him as a heroic, transformational figure in science, while career-long experts in the fields he is opining on are characterized as obstinate and short-sighted. His Galileo Project has that name because it is “daring to look through new telescopes.” In his book claiming ‘Oumuamua is an alien spacecraft, he unironically compares himself to the father of telescopic astronomy, Galileo himself. The community was aghast when he blew up at Jill Tarter, a well-respected giant in the field of SETI and one of the best known women in science in the world. (When Tarter expressed annoyance at his dismissal of others’ work in SETI, he angrily accused her of “opposing” him, and of not doing enough for SETI, as if anyone had done more! Loeb later apologized to Tarter and his colleagues, calling his actions “inappropriate”).  

...

So it is against all of this background that, even when asked, I have generally stayed quiet lately when it comes to Loeb, or tried to give a balanced and nuanced perspective. I do appreciate that he is moving the scientific “Overton Window”, making SETI, which used to (unfairly) seem like an outlandish corner of science, seem practically mainstream by comparison. I appreciate the support he’s given to my work in SETI, and I generally discourage too much public or indiscriminate criticism of him lest the rest of the field suffer “splash damage.”

I have noticed, however, that Loeb’s work and behavior have been seen as so outrageous in many quarters that it essentially goes unrebutted in popular fora by those who are in the best position to explain what, exactly, is wrong about it. This leaves a vacuum, where the public hears only Loeb’s persuasive and articulate voice, with no obvious public pushback from experts beyond exasperated eye-rolling that feeds right into his hero narrative. 


 

Friday, September 15, 2023

You probably know most of this, but I bet you didn't know...

 Given the readership of the blog, most of you already know about the various scandals of Dan Ariely. You possibly even know that his book Predictably Irrational is being loosely adapted for a new TV series.

 But where did they get the idea for a crime thriller based on a celebrity psychologist? I can prove this relationship but given the way TV executives' mind work, I'll bet they were at least partially inspired by the long run of the show Bull, which at its peak was pulling in a respectable 15 million viewers. The show was, believe it or not, inspired (again, I suspect, loosely) by the early career of Dr. Phil McGraw.

You knew there had to be a connection between Dan and Dr. Phil.

Thursday, September 14, 2023

Tweets -- "Actual demonstration of his fitness is used to raise questions about his fitness."

When in doubt, read Michael Hiltzik.

How the media’s obsession with Biden’s age could help reelect Trump 

President Biden on Monday completed a five-day trip to the Far East that included a summit meeting in New Delhi with leaders of the G-20 conference of developed countries at which a major international infrastructure project for India was announced, followed by a one-day visit to Vietnam, where he solidified relations with that country as a bulwark against China.

You might not be aware of this burst of presidential energy if you’re a reader of the news website Axios. On Saturday, while Biden’s journey was in full swing, the site’s gloss on Biden’s activities was this:

“Joe Biden and Donald Trump are running dueling basement campaigns that make them look like they’re in the witness protection program.”

With a few exceptions (like Hiltzik and those listed below), when journalists latch onto a nice safe narrative, they will do whatever it takes to keep it going, including ignoring or distorting facts.

 



I have a lot of respect for Silver, but he does have a way of making an ass of himself.



Between Ukraine, NATO, South Korea/Japan, and Vietnam, I'm coming around to the opinion that Biden is the best foreign policy president in the past fifty years. (And, yes, if you want to leave a comment about Afghanistan, I'd be glad to respond.)


"You get paid to do it."


Eight years ago, the press picked endlessly at Hillary. Four years ago they did the same to Warren. Now it's Harris. 

I get the feeling that there's some common factor here, but I can't quite put my finger on it.





The Archive is one of the best things to come out of the age of the internet. Their lending library is a fantastic resource. I am never giving Hachette any more of my business. I recommend you do the same.


As we may have mentioned before, it's the secondary and the tertiary effects of Dobbs that you need to keep an eye on.






Sane Vampires.

Tech News


Based on the headline, this is not at all where I expected this story to go.





Wednesday, September 13, 2023

The central lies of the Musk Persona 2.0

[updated with a final twee from Josh Marshall.]

Isaacson is the definitive Musk biographer, and I don't mean that in a good way. He buys into the myth even more deeply than Vance (who, as much as I hate to say it, looks considerably better in comparison). Of course, a lot has happened in the eight years that separate the two books. In 2015, Musk could be seen in a purely noble light. That was also the year he had a cameo as himself in the Big Bang Theory volunteering anonymously in a soup kitchen, which would probably be a difficult scene to pull off today.

Even as late as two years ago, he could still get press like this (though it should be noted, Time was badly behind the, for lack of a better word, times with this. Most of the press started to wise up around 2019.).

In 2021, Elon Musk became the world’s richest man (no woman came close), and Time named him Person of the Year: “This is the man who aspires to save our planet and get us a new one to inhabit: clown, genius, edgelord, visionary, industrialist, showman, cad; a madcap hybrid of Thomas Edison, P. T. Barnum, Andrew Carnegie and Watchmen’s Doctor Manhattan, the brooding, blue-skinned man-god who invents electric cars and moves to Mars.” 

...

“He dreams of Mars as he bestrides Earth, square-jawed and indomitable,” the magazine’s Person of the Year announcement read.

 

These days we all know far more about Musk, most of it bad, and all of the other bad stuff, which some of us have been calling out for years, is finally making its way into the discourse. Unless you're writing for a fan boy audience, you can't depict Musk as a purely noble figure; the best you can get away with is the old great but flawed line.

The greatness part of the story rests on two pillars: first, believing Musk has done or is about to do all the things he claims, keeping in mind that he has no background in or aptitude for engineering (when he goes off script, the result is always painful to listen to).

[So Anne Milling and Elon Musk have something in common.]

The second pillar is believing him when he talks about his motives. The NYT's credulous review by Jennifer Szalai has an unintentionally informative example. (If you're looking for something insightful, check out Jill Lepore in the New Yorker or Brian Merchant in the LA Times,) Emphasis added.

Yet even as Musk struggles to relate to the actual humans around him, his plans for humanity are grand. “A fully reusable rocket is the difference between being a single-planet civilization and being a multiplanet one”: Musk would “maniacally” repeat this message to his staff at SpaceX, his spacecraft and satellite company, where every decision is motivated by his determination to get earthlings to Mars. He pushes employees at his companies — he now runs six, including X, the platform formerly known as Twitter — to slash costs and meet brutal deadlines because he needs to pour resources into the moonshot of colonizing space “before civilization crumbles.” Disaster could come from climate change, from declining birthrates,* from artificial intelligence. Isaacson describes Musk stalking the factory floor of Tesla, his electric car company, issuing orders on the fly. “If I don’t make decisions,” Musk explained, “we die.”

This is not just wrong, it's the opposite of right. Musk has used  SpaceX money, personnel, and brand to supports his other companies. The example of Twitter is particularly absurd. He actually borrowed a billion from SpaceX to help fund the $44 billion vanity purchase, money that could great things -- funding R&D, engineering scholarships, STEM programs -- to advance manned spaceflight. 

He could even have funded multiple exploratory rovers to Mars to lay the foundation for the missions he promised were supposed to happen years ago. That's the dirty little secret of his plans for a multiplanetary future. Other than pouring money into developing rockets mainly suitable for low earth orbit missions, neither Musk nor SpaceX have done any of the exploratory work or developed any of the necessary technology for a mission to Mars, despite all the promises.

Musk is a narcissistic fabulist. He has a burning desire to be seen as a savior, but little interest in actually saving anyone. Whenever there's a crisis in the news, he will call a press conference to announce that he's going to deliver water to Flint, minisubs to Thailand, respirators to ICUs. Little or nothing usually follows. You'll notice that his initial account of cutting off Starlink in Crimea was framed as his protecting us from nuclear war.  His promises of saving humanity are just more of the same.



As mentioned earlier, Lepore's piece is really worth a look.




Here's a good discussion of the security issues around Musk and SpaceX from Robert Farley. 

One more for the road.


* Musk's concern over birthrates is for some strange reason limited to certain groups. You can take the boy out of South Africa...

Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Trump and the 14th Amendement

This is Joseph. 

This clause in the constitution is getting a lot of attention with respect to Donald Trump:

Section 3 Disqualification from Holding Office

No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

See this and this, for example. 

However, there is an important section in clause 1 of the same amendment:

No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

And herein lies the problem. How do you enforce section 3 in view of section 1? Well, obviously there needs to be a legal process and it is not encouraging that these challenges, to date, have not had a great record of success. Look at Marjorie Taylor Greene who has already faced such a challenge and survived it given Jan 6th. 

Further, do we really want such challenges? See, I remember the 1990's where such rhetoric was deployed against Bill Clinton. This isn't a joke or a crackpot, Orange County Rep. Robert K. Dornan really did accuse Bill Clinton of this as part of his political resistance to the Vietnam war. Similarly, a sitting president leveled these accusations against Barack Obama. Now maybe Donald Trump is an outlier but there really is a good question as to what counts here. 

Josh Marshall is right that there are issues here:

Did Trump commit insurrection or rebellion under the terms of the 14th Amendment? Who says so? He hasn’t been convicted of anything. He was impeached over his actions on January 6th and the Senate did not convict him. Indeed, not only has he not been convicted of anything a federal prosecutor who did indict him for his actions on and leading up to January 6th did not charge him with seditious conspiracy, the crime most proximate to the 14th Amendment’s criteria.

 Like he was actually tried by the US Senate and not convicted. I know that this was a political result, but it does complicate matters. I think that the short answer is that we probably need either an admission or a conviction to make this one work. After all, look at this (performative) congressional resolution about Joe Biden. The real issue is what counts as triggering the amendment and it needs to be a universal standard that we can apply to all future politicians. 

Conviction is a very clean standard. We routinely remove rights from convicted persons (e.g., the right to vote) and, while I may not love it, it is a known feature of the legal system. The problem is that Donald Trump has not been convicted of anything yet. Maybe he will be but it is concerning to let the emotional want for justice to overturn the process of justice, which is flawed enough when done slowly and carefully. 

The worst threat to Donald Trump of being convicted of this right now is the RICO charge, but I worry about that as well, given other ways that statue has been used recently. 

No, I think that this particular question is best approached with care and not passion, no matter how much we might not like where care leads us. 

Monday, September 11, 2023

"Remember that time the press went crazy for a candidate who turned out to be going nowhere in the polls?" "You'll have to be more specific."

Vivek Ramaswamy's -1.3% surge reminded me of Iowa's swoon-shrugging over Fiorina. Lord, we've been at this for a long time.

 

Friday, June 5, 2015

The internet has made historical revisionism so much easier

[UPDATE: Brad DeLong found an arguably more embarrassing example from the National Journal.]


This may be the best example of New York Times political reporting you will see you all day.


It started as a standard narrative journalism/puff piece. Amy Chozick and Trip Gabriel used a handful of anecdotes and a couple of well-received speeches to build a breathless account of political underdog Carly Fiorina surging toward the lead.

Hack political writers love this narrative. They also gravitate toward positive stories about candidates with whom they are comfortable. When I say "comfortable" I am talking about culture not politics. I will try to back this up in future posts, but I have long argued that left/right biases are far less common than more significant biases involving class, race, religion, region, education, etc. While the New York Times probably disagrees with most of Fiorina's politics, they are more than comfortable with almost everything else about her, from her prominent family to her CEO background to her wealth and extravagant lifestyle.

So far, all of this is just another day at the office for the New York Times election beat. Soon after the piece ran, however, people started to notice that the writers had really buried their lede. Deep in the story, it was revealed that Fiorina's surge was not quite as substantial as the headline suggested.

From paragraph 8 (as pointed out by Duncan Black):
While supporters in Iowa noted that she had doubled her standing in state polls, it was a statistically insignificant change from 1 percent to 2 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released May 6. (That may seem piddling, but the same poll had Mr. Santorum, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2012, also at 2 percent, while 5 percent supported Mr. Bush.)
It is one thing to have a paragraph in the middle of your story that completely undercuts your premise; it is quite another to have people point out a paragraph in the middle of your story that completely undercuts your premise. A quick rewrite was definitely in order.


The resulting headline doesn't make a lot of sense -- if the polls are a reflection of the state's voters, Iowans appear to be swoon-shrugging over Fiorina -- but it does partially inoculate the story from further mockery.

Of course, the NYT has standards. They don't just rewrite a published story without even acknowledging it. The original headline is right there at the bottom of the page.


In small print and pale gray letters.

 

Friday, September 8, 2023

With his youthful energy and out-of-the-box thinking, Vivek Ramaswamy has shot up in the polls by -1.3%

Around two weeks ago (Aug 6th)





Today

 


Over those two weeks, we've had to endure countless articles, op-eds, and think pieces about Ramaswamy's surging poll numbers and what they said about America. There seemed to be newly passed law that required every journalist in the English-speaking world to weigh in on how this exciting new candidate was connecting with voters.

Despite the fact it never happened. Even if we ignore some curious details about his rise in the polls and take it at face value, Ramaswamy's bump was small -- maxing out at 10% -- and never came close to beating DeSantis, let alone making him a serious challenger to Trump.

None of this is to say that Ramaswamy won't have a real surge at some point. This is black swan season. I'm not ruling anything out.

What I am saying is that this "surge" was a non-event and the press corps should be ashamed of itself for wasting our time.


Thursday, September 7, 2023

Thursday Tweets on time for once

First, three stories we should be talking about more. The ongoing domestic terrorist attack on our infrastructure...
... and this ...

 

 and this...



 

Now on with the schadenfreude.

 

If you're a news junkie, you've probably already heard about this:

        Musk’s Epic, Antic Labor Day Weekend Against The Jews

But no account could match watching it unfold in real time.




 Of course, Musk's not just prejudiced against Jewish people.

 

Elsewhere in the empire.



And politics. Did anyone have Kavanaugh as leper with the most fingers in the GOP SCOTUS ethics pool?


I'd use stronger language, but, yeah.

All sorts of interesting dynamics in this campaign.

 



Nothing racist to see here.




I suspect DeSantis is smart enough to know the only smart thing he can do with respect to the general is avoid the topic of abortion, but if he wants to stay next in line, he has to keep ratcheting up.





RFK jr



Once again, Naomi Klein would like to remind you she's not that Naomi.

Some say it was caused by a bad poll fourteen months before the election. Some say it was Nate Silver throwing a tantrum because people were calmly discussing Biden's age. I've been watching the political press covering Democrats long enough to know it's just...

Panic Season

 



Crypto


UFOs

Excellent debunking by an expert with more relevant experience than Loeb. (Read the thread here.)

AI

Here's the source.

Misc.






A useful video for twitter replies.

Wednesday, September 6, 2023

LLMs and IP

Update:

Here's a comment Bob Carpenter left on last week's AI post.

It's not clear, at least as of current court rulings, whether ChatGPT and its ilk have violated any copyright laws. There are a dozen current cases that amount to three basic claims, (1) training infringes copyright, (2) outputs are derivative works, and (3) systems strip out copyright marks. There may be cases about privacy and things like deep fakes coming. There's then the question about who is infringing in cases (2) and (3)---the AI company who built the model or the user who prompts it and then distributes the results? The infringement arguments failed for video recorders because there were non-infringing uses, but succeeded against Napster and music file sharing. The AI companies are most worried about (1). The countervailing consideration they present is that they don't care about the expression of the language (which is what is copyrightable), but only the data or concepts (which are not copyrightable). There's an absolutely fantastic hour long talk on copyright and AI by Pamela Samuelson (where I took the above info), an IP law professor at Berkeley, here: Large language models meet copyright law. She explains the form vs. expression distinction and why it means code is treated differently than other forms of writing (because it's relatively function heavy).

 And here (slightly cleaned up and augmented) is my reply.

Lots to talk about here (keep watching this space) but here are a couple of important point about VCRs (though I believe it was audio cassettes that set the more important precedents). The law allows for personal use, but selling tapes of copyrighted material is still against the law and those rules are well enforced. (Illegal taping did give us one of the all time great Seinfelds, but that's not important right now.) If we were limiting ourselves to personal use, I doubt people would be getting this upset (or investing all those billions).

It's also worth noting that with video (though not so much with audio), the systems being sold to consumers when these precedents were set were next to worthless for large scale IP theft. Copying tapes was a slow process and second-generation VHS was almost unwatchable. Until S-VHS was introduced (years after these cases were decided), you needed a very expensive professional editing suite if you wanted to make money off violating that FBI warning.

Second. Memorex was providing a system where it was the user who did the inputting and the outputting so there was no ambiguity about who was responsible for any piracy. When I use ChatGPT, all of the inputting has been done before I sit down. I had nothing to do with the decision to download the archives of the NYT or the novels of Stephen King. Most users don't even know about it.

More broadly speaking, laws are written with an eye to what's possible, and when that changes, the law should too. There are a lot of ways to steal IP without technically infringing on copyright but that doesn't make it right, and when new tech makes those types of theft easier, those laws should be revisited.

Even pre-LLM, there were lots of gray areas and lots of aggressive lawyers who stretched IP protection to absurd limits, be it clawing a work back after decades in the public domain (It's a Wonderful Life) or suing a singer for sounding like himself (John Fogerty).

Finally, OpenAI, like Uber, Airbnb, and Tesla, has gained a competitive advantage by bending or breaking the spirit and often the letter of the law even when it doesn't have to just because it can. There is a huge amount of text that is in the public domain and could be used without infringing on anyone's rights or privacy. Of course, it would cost a little more, but a company valued at $27-29 billion could afford it, and you wouldn't be able to get a column written in the style of Maureen Dowd, but I consider that a social good.