Thursday, January 20, 2022

"the more beautiful it turns, grows so much the weaker"

 We generally shy away from the Tulipomania section of Extraordinary Popular Delusions. Of the three discussions of bubbles by Charles MacKay, it is the shortest and generally the least interesting but it does contain some very nice writing. It also seems especially relevant in an age of NFTs, which have a definite tulip mania vibe.

The tulip,—so named, it is said, from a Turkish word, signifying a turban,—was introduced into western Europe about the middle of the sixteenth century. Conrad Gesner, who claims the merit of having brought it into repute,—little dreaming of the commotion it was shortly afterwards to make in the world,—says that he first saw it in the year 1559, in a garden at Augsburg, belonging to the learned Counsellor Herwart, a man very famous in his day for his collection of rare exotics. The bulbs were sent to this gentleman by a friend at Constantinople, where the flower had long been a favourite. In the course of ten or eleven years after this period, tulips were much sought after by the wealthy, especially in Holland and Germany. Rich people at Amsterdam sent for the bulbs direct to Constantinople, and paid the most extravagant prices for them. The first roots planted in England were brought from Vienna in 1600. Until the year 1634 the tulip annually increased in reputation, until it was deemed a proof of bad taste in any man of fortune to be without a collection of them. Many learned men, including Pompeius de Angelis and the celebrated Lipsius of Leyden, the author of the treatise “De Constantia,” were passionately fond of tulips. The rage for possessing them soon caught the middle classes of society, and merchants and shopkeepers, even of moderate means, began to vie with each other in the rarity of these flowers and the preposterous prices they paid for them. A trader at Harlaem was known to pay one-half of his fortune for a single root, not with the design of selling it again at a profit, but to keep in his own conservatory for the admiration of his acquaintance.


One would suppose that there must have been some great virtue in this flower to have made it so valuable in the eyes of so prudent a people as the Dutch; but it has neither the beauty nor the perfume of the rose—hardly the beauty of the “sweet, sweet-pea;” neither is it as enduring as either. Cowley, it is true, is loud in its praise. He says—


“The tulip next appeared, all over gay,

But wanton, full of pride, and full of play;

The world can’t shew a dye but here has place;

Nay, by new mixtures, she can change her face;

Purple and gold are both beneath her care,

The richest needlework she loves to wear;

Her only study is to please the eye,

And to outshine the rest in finery.”


This, though not very poetical, is the description of a poet. Beckmann, in his History of Inventions, paints it with more fidelity, and in prose more pleasing than Cowley’s poetry. He says, “There are few plants which acquire, through accident, weakness, or disease, so many variegations as the tulip. When uncultivated, and in its natural state, it is almost of one colour, has large leaves, and an extraordinarily long stem. When it has been weakened by cultivation, it becomes more agreeable in the eyes of the florist. The petals are then paler, smaller, and more diversified in hue; and the leaves acquire a softer green colour. Thus this masterpiece of culture, the more beautiful it turns, grows so much the weaker, so that, with the greatest skill and most careful attention, it can scarcely be transplanted, or even kept alive.”

Many persons grow insensibly attached to that which gives them a great deal of trouble, as a mother often loves her sick and ever-ailing child better than her more healthy offspring. Upon the same principle we must account for the unmerited encomia lavished upon these fragile blossoms. 


Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Even with Alejandro Jodorowsky's never filmed Dune, truth can be stranger than fiction, especially when crypto and NFTs are involved



Jamie Powell writing for FT Alphaville.

Yet a fascination with the project’s mind-bendingly ambitious vision remained, so much so that a documentary was made about it in 2014, and a rare book on the unmade film — containing the script, concept art and other pre-production materials — has become a collector’s items among Dune-heads.

So in-demand in fact, that every now and then one of the estimated 20 surfaces for sale gets purchased for big bucks. And so it was in late November, when Christies sold one of the copies for €2.66m — almost 100 times its estimate.

Which brings us neatly to this announcement from Spice DAO on Sunday:

If you don’t know what a DAO, or decentralised anonymous organisation, is, let us explain. In effect, it’s a governance structure where each member of the organisation — a membership often granted by simply buying a cryptocurrency tied to it (in this case, named SPICE) — becomes a decision maker in the organisation’s governance. The governance rules are set in smart contracts drafted beforehand by the original organisers, but after that, every decision of the entity is decided by the tokenholders. Presented as an antidote to the centralised governance of modern tech companies, it’s like being a shareholder in a crowd-funded project, but without being able to defer any decision-making to a chief executive or management team. (And that, arguably, is the least of the model’s problems. Do read Izzy or Stephen Diehl for more.)

Yet the problem with Spice DAO isn’t so much a philosophical one but a legal one.

We don’t know why we have to state this, but by buying a copy of something doesn’t give you exclusive rights to monetise its content. It’s literally the bedrock of intellectual property law and therefore, large swaths of capitalism.

So, have SpiceDAO resolved this? The copyrights of the book’s script and illustrations, according to BuzzFeed, are owned by Jodorowsky himself, and artists Jean Giraud and HR Giger. Both of whom died over the past decade. So without their estate’s sign-off, SpiceDAO is Spice dead in the water.


Turns out the IP situation is even worse than Powell suggests. About that animated series...

And there's more.

Of course, there are still 19 other copies out, not to mention this...


You know what the sad part is? This almost certainly isn't the dumbest blockchain based business idea we'll see in 2022. It may not even be the dumbest of the year so far.

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Tax cuts are getting old as a policy idea

This is Joseph. 

It has been more than 40 years since the California Tax revolt and Ronald Reagan in the United States. I was young in the 1980's and there was a certain interest in the question of whether high tax rates might interfere with economic activity. 

So in 2022, in Manitoba, just after a pandemic and with the health care system overstrained, you get this question in EngageMB:


Please note the lack of options in this questionnaire for options like "raise taxes" to handle medical care costs and/or infrastructure

Now I am not going to question that cutting taxes seems like a good plan as a taxpayer. But remember that this is only one side of the questions. I would also like lower prices at the local McDonalds restaurant but dropping prices requires trade-offs. This late into the tax cut idea set, the easy cuts have long been made and what is left is either service degradation (keep in mind these are things like roads) or improving efficiency. 

I would get behind a plan to improve efficiency (first) and then cut taxes (second) but the reverse is doing the easy part first. But a straight "just cut taxes" plan is old hat and the opposite of a dynamic and creative political message. 

Monday, January 17, 2022

More from Stephen Diehl -- Decentralized Woo Hoo

I really should have started reading this guy earlier. His blog and twitter feed just jumped to the top of my crypto/Web3 reading list.

In science communication there’s a term that’s often bandied about to describe a type of ineffective communication style that flirts with quackery and pseudoscience, it’s known as quantum woo. The term refers to a class of rhetoric that works backwards from some large human phenomenon, which is shrouded in scientific ambiguity and deep questions, and then proceeds to derive an explanation for said phenomenon by working from quantum mechanics.

It extrapolates the micro “weirdness” of quantum mechanics up to the macro level of human experience through a series of non-sequitur claims involving the misreading of complex ideas and/or misinterpretation of technical terms. These arguments are often used to justify claims for things like crystal healing, panpsychism, heaven or other human mystical or pseudoscientific beliefs. Or similarly they suggest misguided equivalences, like that that quantum mechanics and consciousness are both weird and therefore equivelent without a reference to a mechanism. The Dirac equation has nothing to say about the phenomenon of mind except to describe the chemistry that gives rise to it.

Much of this confusion is nothing but word games arising out of imprecise language. Quantum mechanics uses the word observable to refer to a technical concept, however the word has a colloquial meaning that carries emotional and anthropocentric baggage. Used interchangeably the word mistakenly connotes a person or a mind is involved with this process when in fact the scientific usage has no such requirement. This ambiguity itself has led to an amazing amount of quantum woo purely from the misinterpretation and interchange of words.

The essence of the fallacy is based on either an intentional attempt to construct a post-hoc rationalisation for a crackpot idea through a specious relation to the rigour of physics; or it is an unintentional category error that attempts to use reasoning applicable for one strata of discourse and apply it to a different level, where such models cannot make predictions. In technology we have an almost identical phenomenon surrounding the word decentralized.

In a vast amount of the legal, regulatory, ethical, and policy discussions around crypto assets we encounter questions about the intrinsic value of these investments. Yet if we value these assets in terms of traditional valuation models we find they should be worth absolutely nothing. But crypto assets come with an attached narrative economics that tries to rationalize their existence by appeals to either libertarian politics or technology. If we venture down the technology arguments, at this point the discussion of intrinsic value of crypto assets reduces down to a rhetorical word salad of decentralized woo making all manner of appeals to alleged ideals of decentralization and networks, yet like with quantum woo, without a reference to a mechanism.

Friday, January 14, 2022

Necessary and Sufficientish Factors

For certain topics, there are factors that absolutely have to be included in any serious conversation and often good enough for a rough mental model. You can flip this around to form a test for seriousness: the writer who leaves the necessary out of big think pieces is not serious and is probably best ignored. 

When discussing the Press coverage of Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris, misogyny may not be a sufficient explanation, but it is definitely necessary. 

When discussing Western wildfires, more than a century of a disastrous war-on-fire policy that left our forests basically a huge collection of tinder bundles is both necessary and sufficientish (though a more complete discussion should include climate change as well).

When discussing the increased frequency of droughts, heat waves and hurricanes, on the other hand, climate change is both necessary and sufficientish. 

When discussing the rise of MAGA and QAnon, decades of Conservative Movement propaganda and disinformation is necessary and sufficientish.


Obviously, these are complex issues with multiple complex causal relationships behind them, but any theory that claims to explain one of them and yet leaves out the primary cause, is profoundly and irredeemably silly, and we have way too much silliness in our discourse already.


Always start with whatever is doing the heavy lifting.

Thursday, January 13, 2022

Thursday Tweets



























Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Back on the crypto beat: Turns out that private money is a bad idea

Stephen Diehl has perhaps the best concise but comprehensive overview of why cryptocurrencies are such a bad idea by pretty much every possible measure. Much of it will be familiar to anyone who has been following the story closely, it does have some interesting points that most commentators have missed, particularly regarding some historic precedents. 

Even playing devil’s advocate and assuming cryptocurrency could function as money—which they can’t—we come up against the hard limitation that every time private money has been tried in history it creates a form of corporate feudalism coupled to a toxic environment that encourages fraud and discourages commerce. The lessons of history are quite clear on this issue because the United States flirted with such a system back in the Free Banking Era from 1837 to 1863. In this time period there were hundreds of private entities that went about issuing their own private bank notes allegedly created one-for-one with state bonds.

The problem with these so-called wildcat banks is that their reserves were not always verifiably backed and were thus subject to runs on the bank in which customers could not access their funds. The second issue is that unlike public money which is universally accepted at par, the wildcat bank notes had a massive secondary exchange market where notes from different banks would not trade at par. A dollar note from Wyoming bank could be worth $0.60 to a note from a Nebraska bank and these values would fluctuate depending on market conditions. As a merchant this would make business rather complicated as you would be forced to purchase goods in one set of notes, accept notes from customers and give change in a different set of notes. This was great for bankers who had access to non-public information and could arbitrage these notes for their own profits, but for the average person it was a terribly predatory and exploitative system. Private bank notes are a needlessly complicated, risky and inefficient way to run an economy and this was remedied by the National Bank Act of 1863. It was a truly terrible idea.

History tends to rhyme with itself, and today we are flirting with the same bad ideas of the past. Except now instead of wildcat banks we have wildcat tech platforms with the same aspirations. They don’t want to interface with public money, they want to become issuers of private money themselves. A fully vertically integrated form of company scrip that they issue to their investors, employees and customers to create not just a walled garden, but a walled garden where every path has a toll booth that takes only their coin. The elephant in the room that no venture investor in these projects wants to talk about is that creating private money, just like in the wildcat banking era, is a license to print money by creating markets for these coins/notes with massive position and information asymmetries baked into the design. These kinds of private money regimes are just as exploitative today as they were in the 1800s, and the so-called “web3” notion of embedding this form of institutionalized corruption as a first class structure into the internet is a terrible idea that ignores the lessons of history.

Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Health care and central planning

This is Joseph

This tweet thread is worth reading in detail. As a recently repatriated Canadian myself, I think that it is spot on. In fact, this statistic is so obviously true to me and explains my amazement at modern Canadian healthcare:
When I got here, I wondered, has it always been this bad? The answer is no. 

Specialist physicians in 2020 reported a median wait time of 22.6 weeks between referral from a general practitioner and receipt of treatment— compared with 9.3 weeks in 1993.

I think that this does highlight one concern about "Medicare for all" -- that if the entire health care sector is planned by the government then you become vulnerable to all of the failings of central planning. I known it is hotly disputed these days, but the central planning of the USSR was not an advantage in its great power competition with the United States. It just wasn't. 

The consequences of it in Canada on the ability of health care to weather an external shock (like covid-19) are clear. Look at this, which leaves people unable to do basic tasks like driving if wait times get too long:

 Manitoba has seen the largest decrease in Canada in cataract and lens surgeries during the pandemic.

We estimate the backlog is 4,945 and growing for cataract surgery.

Or this:

The Winnipeg Regional Health Authority (WRHA) is advising residents of Winnipeg that community health services – home care services, in particular, could be delayed, rescheduled or cancelled due to staff shortages. 

Or this:

Prairie Mountain Health, which services a wide swath of western and southwestern Manitoba, currently has eight rural emergency departments closed, leaving some communities with no open hospital and long drives to access urgent care.

Or this:

Let's say you do a job that requires 14 highly skilled people. Suddenly, you only have 7 people and 3 of them are untrained. Your working conditions remain like that for months. And you keep getting told you’re fine and that you can, in fact, actually increase what you’re doing. 

Or this (from a working MD):

I understand drive to reassure - but IMO hospitals need to stop promising "we've got you." Our politicians have pushed our systems to the edge of the cliff and we don't know what is going to happen as a result. That's the truth. A lot is about to go into freefall. 

The common theme is that a centrally planned system lacks resilience if the politicians in charge (because administrators ultimately report to politicians) decide to let the system crumble. Now think carefully if you want the typical politician making tough decisions about long term health care needs and about how to staff/run the system. Now, it is true that hospitals are currently mostly not run by the government but the group in charge of finance easily evaded that obstacle:

Planning in the hospital sector is subject to many of the same challenges as the medical sector, as most hospitals are privately owned nonprofit organizations. Allocation of resources within each institution tends to be at its own discretion. This is tempered at the provincial level, however, by splitting the planning process into operational and capital planning. Thus, while day-to-day operations are largely institutionally based with some input from the ministry, the decision to build and update facilities or purchase new equipment is subject to more extensive central control. Therefore, even though the institutional sector accounts for the preponderance of provincial health care budgets, provinces have had more planning and financial control than in any other sector

 This is a European report on Canada. Not that they also report on Canada's restrictions on training medical personnel in order to constrain costs. 

I am not saying that socialized medicine is a mistake, it isn't. But I think that there is a very important piece that we need to make sure that the institutions are well planned and robust to political administration types. Good government is key and planning this out in advance may evade some of the surprising challenges Canadian healthcare is suddenly facing. 

Monday, January 10, 2022

Some thoughts on the career of Betty White

 The older I get, the more interesting I find second acts. 

White was a pioneering broadcaster -- Ken Levine argues she was literally the first woman on television -- but before the age of fifty (barring some very obscure shows), no one had any idea the woman could act. Putting aside her work as a producer which was entirely out of the public eye, Betty White's job was to be a guest and occasionally a host on game shows and talk shows and to be a pleasant foil for other celebrities like Lorne Green during the Macy's or Rose Bowl Parades. 




This job is waaay harder than it sounds, and Betty White was very good at it for decades, but it's not the kind of work that makes you one of the most beloved stars in the country. 

The career that everyone has been celebrating over the past week was one of the most impressive second acts in American entertainment, and she did it at an age when most women in the industry saw their opportunities dry up.

The breakthrough role was Sue Ann Niven, the Happy Homemaker and initially a big part of the joke was having a famous perennially cheerful TV personality play the always smiling but privately vicious Niven, but White's performance (combined with brilliant writing) almost immediately moved past stunt casting and established her as a major comic actor, winning two Emmys for the role.  (About this time, in a much smaller but still telling accomplishment, she was the only guest star given a permanent spot in the Carol Burnett Show's Eunice sketches, playing the least likeable member of that very unlikeable family).

MTM made people take White seriously as an actor; Golden Girls established her as a star. It was a critically acclaimed hit show and White was playing a character 180 degrees from Sue Ann Niven (the result of a last-minute casting switch). She turned seventy the year the Golden Girls went off the air. 

As Pauline Kael observed, some actors have everything it takes to be a major star, but they never get that one role that pushes them to the next level. Others just have to wait a little longer. 











Friday, January 7, 2022

Damn, this has been sitting in the queue for a while.

Fortunately (or unfortunately) they seem to have remained relevant.



SPACs + Trump... What could go wrong?













































Thursday, January 6, 2022

Policy that ignores the real poor

This is Joseph.

I was reading Slow Boring and was struck by this passage about student loan forgiveness:
So while there are certainly lots of individual cases where debt relief sounds like an appealing idea, under the current circumstances the case for broad debt relief has become extremely weak. There’s basically no other situation in which progressives would talk themselves into this kind of idea, which is currently being propped up with some very odd math about the racial wealth gap.

It reminded me about the argument you always hear about gasoline taxes, even from most progressives, that they hurt the poor the most. Of course, the really poor do not own cars. For some reason the really, really poor are often neglected in the discourse. 

For example, a homeless person who does not own a car is not especially directly hurt by gas taxes. Now you might argue that there are indirect impacts on prices that a gasoline tax creates but, at some margin, there is always somebody hurt by tax relative to the benefits they receive. Goods would be clearly more expensive if we allowed the roads to collapse. 

In the same sense, bike lanes and good bus systems tend to help out the disadvantaged. Sure, there is a culture of entitled bicycle enthusiasts who are a bit annoying. But low cost transportation helps the very poor the most.

Similarly, the real contest with student loan forgiveness is whether other forms of support might be more effective. Food stamps, for example, probably have a larger and positive effect on the really poor as opposed to student loan debts.

Now, there is actually some evidence that higher education is harder to access for black students, leaving more debt and lower completion rates. This has real social justice issues. But I would argue that the best way to address this is some combination of broader reform (to prevent the most extreme student debt issues) and targeted support to encourage minority success. Now it is true such policies might come under legal fire, but that is hardly an excuse to them do a blanket policy. 

Now, full disclosure, I did have student loans, I paid them off, and I would much rather not have done so. I think high loans are a bad thing. But I am not sure that just forgiving loans whenever they get too high is a good policy. But, more importantly, it is not a policy that is aimed at the most disadvantaged. Look at the level of income challenges for people without a high school diploma, in Canada with a richer social safety net. These are likely the real poor (just look at unemployment and the jobs that they have). 

Similarly, one cannot go far wrong by improving transit services that the poorest and sickest among us need to use. 

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

Just to keep this top of mind...

The NIMBY/YIMBY politics used to be simpler and tended to break fairly cleanly along progressive/reactionary lines. As the debate has shifted to density and gentrification, the lines have gotten much blurrier. Though you wouldn't know it from the press coverage, some of the strongest voices on the NIMBY side are coming from people of color in places like Boyle Heights.

 This doesn't make the NIMBYs more right or the YIMBYs less, but it does suggest that the good guys/bad guys narrative pushed by the NYT et al. should be reconsidered.

[corrected from the original.]

TUESDAY, MARCH 13, 2018

When the NIMBYs were primarily motivated by racism and class bigotry, there was no YIMBY backlash.

We've commented before that much of the discussion of urban density, particularly on the advocates' side, tends to be overly simplistic and inappropriately moralistic. This last point is greatly complicated by the fact that historically the motivations for NIMBYism were more often than not pretty repugnant. Opposition to public transportation, low-cost housing, and integration of neighborhoods was based almost entirely on the desire to keep people of color and the poor as far away as possible.

These issues haven't gone away, of course – – try to add another subway stop in Beverly Hills and check out the response you get – – but the NIMBY/YIMBY conflict that makes the news and dominates the public discourse here in Los Angeles (and, I suspect, in the Bay Area as well) has very little racial and class component.

At best, the battle over Santa Monica is a struggle between the top decile and the top quartile. Sometimes, there's not even that much of a class distinction. To be hammer blunt, you have a bunch of well-off people who enjoy the fantastic weather and bland conspicuous consumption of the town and who don't want other well-off people coming in and clogging the place up.

Advocates generally argue that development will drive down prices both in the city of Santa Monica and in the county of Los Angeles. I'm skeptical. While I'm not saying this is a bad approach in general, the arguments I've seen so far seem simplistic and overly linear, and the proposed impacts wildly overoptimistic. I could easily be wrong on these questions but either way, this is not a moral argument and framing it in moralistic terms simply serves to cloud the issues.

Tuesday, January 4, 2022

Simpsons > Good Will Hunting (mathematically speaking)

Mathematician Jordan Ellenberg breaks down Math films & TV shows





Monday, January 3, 2022

Why I see SCOTUS packing as inevitable

This is Joseph.

I have, for a while, held the opinion that the US supreme court is almost certain to be packed. One thing that needs to be clear is that the US supreme court is, at least partially, a legislative arm of the government. After all, no law can stand in the United States unless it can pass judicial review. Like a lot of things, judicial review sounds simple until you put it into practice. 

Just look at how complicated the history and interpretation of the second amendment is.  Now imagine trying to apply this to individual cases. This is ok if there is a lot of judicial restraint but activist judges can quickly make things very complicated. 

Now look at recent cases like SB8 which seem to be tilted towards allowing certain, less favored, constitutional rights to be suppressed. Or the affordable care  act and Medicaid expansion, which is nearly a decade old and still seems questionable. Even Bush versus Gore pushed important boundaries

Now some of this is older law. What has changed? I argue the following

  1. Merrick Garland showed that the senate majority would keep a seat open for a year for a more favorable president (and if they will do it for a year then why not three? If your answer is shame look at point two)
  2. We also saw the senate speed a candidate through in the last two months of a congressional term a candidate on a 100% party line vote
  3. We also saw a strategic retirement to bolster the youth of the Republican justices, meaning a one-term president appointed one third of the court, people like to serve for decades. 
  4. With a narrow senate majority and a democratic president, the 83 year old senior liberal has ruled out senior status. 
  5. With the 6-3 court, we now have a part of the court (5 members) who appear to be abandoning a slow and cautious implementation of the conservative agenda and instead are becoming firebrands

Point 5 is probably the most controversial but see what the Republican appointed Chief Justice has to say about Whole Women's Health versus Jackson:

The clear purpose and actual effect of S. B. 8 has been to nullify this Court’s rulings. It is, however, a basic principle that the Constitution is the “fundamental and paramount law of the nation,” and “[i]t is emphatically the province and duty of the judicial department to say what the law is.” Marbury v. Madison, 1 Cranch 137, 177 (1803). Indeed, “[i]f the legislatures of the several states may, at will, annul the judgments of the courts of the United States, and destroy the rights acquired under those judgments, the constitution itself becomes a solemn mockery.” United States v. Peters, 5 Cranch 115, 136 (1809). The nature of the federal right infringed does not matter; it is the role of the Supreme Court in our constitutional system that is at stake.

To be clear, this is a George W Bush appointed conservative justice who is fine with the destruction of many cherished rights or programs of Americans on matters like healthcare and voting.  

Furthermore, the arguments against packing are so weak that they are embarrassing. Consider this one:

Term limits, by providing each president with two Supreme Court appointments in every four-year presidential term, would risk enmeshing the appointments in the presidential election cycle, further politicizing the appointment process.

It seems possible, even likely, that presidential candidates would announce their Supreme Court choices as part of the campaign, turning potential nominations into political fodder. 

Like does nobody remember these news stories?  

It is the way that these all tangle together that make me think that packing is now inevitable (just like ending the filibuster on SCOTUS nominations became inevitable when the stakes got too high). Holding seats open means that you'll get campaigning on court nominations. Loud decisions that make a big push, SCOTUS already defending themselves because they look political, and extremely long appointments mean that this will become a crisis, sooner or later. Packing is a sacred tradition in the US -- just ask why there is a North and South Dakota. 

Now could it all work out? Well, what stopped the last few crisis points. Well, Andrew Jackson decided to just ignore the supreme court, which seems like an unlikely strategy in the modern legal environment. Going into the civil war, SCOTUS was adamantly opposed to Lincoln but he ended up defusing the crisis by appointing FIVE justices (including an expansion of the court from none to ten justices -- later revised by Andrew Johnson to 7 and US Grant to 9). The court survived these court size changing schemes quite handily. The last major crisis point was FDR, where a single switched vote could matter. But that was a 5-4 court and we might already be seeing that switch with Chief Justice Roberts. 

This history is also why I am so annoyed about Breyer's retirement. If the court drifts 7-2, then it gets harder to imagine moderation on some of the more forceful decisions. CJ Roberts is hardly a friend of the left (bitter enemy is more correct) but he at least is willing to be incrementalistic and defuse confrontation with the other branches. But passing over a clean chance for a successor is mad. He is 83 and the oldest member of the court by a decade (Trump's 3 nominees are 49, 53, and 48 -- likely to be with us for 3 decades with these retirement ages). There are currently 3 retired SC judges (retired at 69, 75, and 82) -- all 3 appointed by republicans and all three strategic. The last three judges to die in office were: Ruth Bader Ginsberg (87), Antonin Scalia (79), and William Rehnquist (80). This is not an early retirement that is being suggested. 

Now consider this comment from him:

Justice Breyer made the point more broadly in his new book. “My experience from more than 30 years as a judge has shown me that anyone taking the judicial oath takes it very much to heart,” he wrote. “A judge’s loyalty is to the rule of law, not the political party that helped to secure his or her appointment.”

And now I return to where this all began. Interpreting the law is hard and words are inherently ambiguous.  It is quite compatible for a person to both believe they serve the law first and to have a view of the law that is favorable to a particular political movement. Sooner or later this will be an issue and I suspect we'll follow the footsteps of Lincoln and Grant. 

Saturday, January 1, 2022

Happy New Year's -- Little Nemo grows up

Season's greetings from Windsor McCay.



Apologies for the formatting. Copy and paste for the full effect. (I hate blogger.)