tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post3996755472352379223..comments2024-03-26T19:10:00.791-04:00Comments on West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more): Damn you, Jonathan ChaitJosephhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10760453165301871031noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-36892795805730616022015-12-12T15:15:47.566-05:002015-12-12T15:15:47.566-05:00"Benefits" might not be the best word. T..."Benefits" might not be the best word. The down-ticket effect of an independent run would include bringing some people who otherwise wouldn't have voted, but I suspect the bigger impact would be keeping angry Trump supporters from staying home.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14705408455380402571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-69252099678156336472015-12-12T05:53:31.321-05:002015-12-12T05:53:31.321-05:00I've heard 2 opposing scenarios, one in which ...<br />I've heard 2 opposing scenarios, one in which 1) a lot of in-your-face people tell pollsters they support Trump, but then DON'T pull the lever for him once inside the voting booth, AND 2) a lot of people are too timid to say out-loud they support Trump, but then actually DO pull his lever once inside the voting booth.<br /><br />I think Trump has a solid 25% of the Repub. vote... but that is all... in a dozen-man race 25% looks impressive, but once it gets down to 3 people he'll be in 3rd place behind someone with 35% and 40%. I still expect a raucous, multi-ballot Convention, with at least a possibility the nomination goes to someone not even currently running. An actual Trump nomination would likely be a Goldwater-like debacle, and a 3rd party run would be insane... even for Donald (yeah, there'd be some "down-ballot" GOP benefits, but those are already locked in through gerrymandering anyway)."Shecky Riemann"https://www.blogger.com/profile/07065658607024191185noreply@blogger.com