tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post1373785371804952962..comments2024-03-26T19:10:00.791-04:00Comments on West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more): A few points to keep in mind when reading any upcoming story about Elon MuskJosephhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10760453165301871031noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-19988111272985241552017-07-25T20:05:13.355-04:002017-07-25T20:05:13.355-04:00Andrew,
We need to distinguish between Musk's ...Andrew,<br />We need to distinguish between Musk's ideas and his "ideas." The ideas include "let's see what the TRW propulsion people could do in a lean company with an aggressive corporate culture," or "let's reinvent the electric vehicle as a luxury product," or "let's explore synergies between home solar and electric vehicles." These are reasonably original, well-thought-out, and represent a tremendous amount of hard work from Musk.<br /><br />His "ideas" are things like giant slot car tracks under Los Angeles or averting the robot apocalypse through telepathy chips in our brains. In addition to being impractical and derivative (it's as if he were getting all of his material from old "world of tomorrow" articles), the "ideas" are notable for the lack of effort that Mask put into them. More work goes into the artists’ rendering than into the engineering.<br /><br />As people have started to realize that Tesla is overvalued and Musk is overpaid, these "ideas" have become more and more valuable in terms of personal brand. Just as Hugh Hefner's sybarite lifestyle fed the fantasy that kept men buying Playboy Magazine, Musk's "real life Tony Stark" persona keeps investors pumping up Tesla.<br />Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14705408455380402571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-74112260996364185892017-07-25T17:42:44.341-04:002017-07-25T17:42:44.341-04:00I think it’s safe to say that, in addition to bein...I think it’s safe to say that, in addition to being avaricious, Musk is a fabulist and an egotist (pretty much classic flim-flam man). His current situation gives him tremendous wealth, unimaginable attention, and legions of credulous listeners). It’s pretty much the perfect gig.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14705408455380402571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-2475177876324015792017-07-25T17:10:36.638-04:002017-07-25T17:10:36.638-04:00Joseph:
The expression "risk taker" is ...Joseph:<br /><br />The expression "risk taker" is interesting in that the risk is asymmetric: Musk can win a billion dollars in this but he can't end up at -$1,000,000.<br /><br />On the other hand, lots of rich people would like to escalate to the billion dollar level but don't have any plan to get there other than to invest in other people's business ventures and hope to get lucky.<br /><br />So Musk is putting something in here. Perhaps the right way to think of it is not that Musk is making a risky choice but rather that Musk is putting in effort. I assume that all this organizing and hyping etc. that Musk is doing takes a lot of work, much more work than, say, going to lunches with venture capitalists and trying to decide where to place your bets.<br /><br />I'm not saying that Musk's tech ideas make sense; I just think that "risk" is the wrong framework for this. It's my impression that the standard story is Big Risks, Big Rewards, but I think this is a bit different. Big Risks, Big Rewards seems more like the standard story of a guy with $100 million investing $10 million in each of 5 companies, hoping that one of them will become The Next Google or whatever.Andrew Gelmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02715992780769751789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6976144462093297473.post-53390206319664955812017-07-25T12:48:54.225-04:002017-07-25T12:48:54.225-04:00And earning that billion dollars is probably the e...And earning that billion dollars is probably the entire point of the exercise. Of course, if he happens to get lucky then that's even better, but ending up filthy rich as a failed risk taker who pushed too far (high status as we idolize even failed risk takers and wealthy) is hardly a bad ending for him. Josephhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10760453165301871031noreply@blogger.com